January 23, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned active yesterday in southern plains feedlots at prices generally $2 lower than the week before. Texas/OK/NM feedlots sold 18,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live and Kansas feedlots sold 28,200 head of fed cattle for $82 live. There was also trade that took place in the north with prices mostly steady with Wednesday as we see Nebraska feedlots selling 26,300 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed, Colorado selling 1,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live, and Iowa/MN feedlots selling 7,700 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed. The northern trade of fed cattle should be about wrapped up for the week and any cleanup trade that occurs today should take place at steady money with yesterday. The south could probably use to sell a few more cattle and here too, any trade that does develop should take place at steady money with the bulk of yesterday’s trade. A few plants in the north are said to be booked up with cattle into the end of next week and first half of the following week. Southern packers remain rather close to the knife in terms of inventory and this might take some leverage away from them in next weeks price negotiations. I am going to look for a steady to higher fed cattle trade for next week. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cow markets remain firm and given the level of demand for ground beef, lack of near term beef imports, and tightening of cow numbers in the west I will call for a steady to firm cow market early next week. Feeder cattle markets remain a under pressure going into the weekend as lower fed cattle markets, both futures and cash, keeps buyers looking to procure inventory at lower money. Feeder cattle runs should start to tighten up a bit towards the end of the month, which I think with an increase in fed cattle prices should support feeder cattle values in the lower $90’s basis the CME index.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be 1,000 head above the same day last week and 1,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 490,000 head, which would be 8,000 head above the same period a week ago, with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $2.10 lower to settle at $149.65 and the select cutout closing $.98 lower to settle at $143.54. Sales volume was good with 301 loads of beef sold (127.22 loads of choice fab cuts, 110.19 loads of select fab cuts, 22.58 loads of trim, 41.22 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $6.12 a loss of $1.12.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with price discounts showing up in most all primal areas of the beef carcass as packer margins are attractive and they ramp up production to take advantage of the situation. This has put a larger mix of beef cuts on the market that buyers are only willing to absorb now that they have comfortable inventory positions. Ground beef remains firm from most points of sale and higher prices in that complex along with higher prices in the boneless grinding beef complex should prevail into next week. I will continue to look for choice cutout values to drift into the $1.45 area and select cutout values to drift into the $1.40 area by the first of February. Export sales for the week of January 9-15, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,500 MT were primarily for Mexico (2,000 MT), Japan (1,800 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Exports of 8,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), Vietnam (1,400 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.27 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $85.40 a gain of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $84.17 a gain of $.07. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.47 a gain of $.60, March feeder cattle settled at $92.30 a gain of $.95, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.40 a gain of $.60. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/21/09 was $95.52 a loss of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a loss of $.27, April/June settled at $1.22 a gain of $.12, and June/August settled at -$.77 a loss of $.05. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.17 a loss of $.35, March/April settled at -$1.10 a gain of $.35, April/May settled at -$2.05 a loss of $.15.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,962 contracts trade in the pit and 10,406 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 131 contracts to come in this morning at 205,233. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,443 contracts trade in the pit and 762 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 200 contracts to come in this morning at 21,068.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on hedge lifting, short covering, and a late rally in the Dow. We did nothing more yesterday than trade with the lower stock market early, tested Wednesday’s lows and rallied into the close. It looks like the exact same thing is going to happen again this morning with overnight Dow futures down 200, S&P futures down 22, and overnight Globex cattle futures down $.50. Keep in mind we will have a cattle on feed report out tonight after the close, which is expected to show on feed Jan 1, 2009 93.9%, placed during December 100.1%, and marketed during December 99.3%. The report should show that fed cattle numbers get very manageable in the next 4 weeks, which should be supportive to the front end of the board. Feedlot placement activity will continue to grow in the coming months as placements the last several months have been running below year ago levels. These cattle are outside feedlots right now waiting to be placed at heavier weights, which is going to start to build fed cattle supplies for the late summer/early fall marketing timeframes. The market should find some support on a lower trade today until we get the on feed report behind us. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, and if today is like any other day this week, you can buy fats and feeders $1 lower and look to sell them out higher on the day by the close. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
January 22, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned moderately active in the north yesterday with sales running generally $1-$3 lower when compared to last week. The USDA was reporting 7,400 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $81-$82 live and $1.32 dressed and 9,600 head of cattle sold in Colorado at $82.50 live and $1.32 dressed. Packers in Texas and Kansas were bidding $81-$82 with most feedlots opting to pass on those bids. Lower cattle futures and boxed beef markets were the catalysts for the lower trade yesterday, and it now looks like the southern trade will inevitably take place at $82-$83. Fat cattle at the Sioux Falls, SD auction market were also being marked about $1 lower yesterday with the beef fats bringing $80-$82 and the Holstein fats bringing $69-$72. Slaughter cow markets are firm by $1-$2 this week with the majority of the cutter and boning utility cows bringing $43-$48 and the breakers and whites bringing $48-$56. Most feeder cattle sales around the country are turning $1-$3 lower results. Sales like El Reno, OK and Dodge City, KS were calling their market that way yesterday with the majority of the 600 lbs to 800 lbs steer cattle bringing $88-$99. The fed cattle market is dragging the feeder cattle market lower as we get into the last half of January. Boxed beef values are expected to drift down to the mid-$1.40’s basis the choice cutout, which should begin to support cash fed cattle values at current price levels, given that packers are currently making $35-$40 per head. Much of this break has already been priced into the futures and this week’s cash market, which should mean that we could find some support down here for a week or two until we see what kind of demand develops into the first of February. Cash feeder cattle values could have a little more to loose, however the board has already priced in a lower $90’s CME feeder index with yesterdays price action. Cows should find some support at current price levels as there is very good demand for ground beef right now and imports from overseas are down due to production cutbacks in South America and Australia.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 11,000 head below last week and 6,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 364,000 head, which would be 7,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.22 lower to settle at $151.75 and the select cutout closing $1.15 lower to settle at $144.52. Sales volume was good with 375 loads of beef sold (137.13 loads of choice fab cuts, 140.97 loads of select fab cuts, 15.27 loads of trim, 81.61 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.23 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was under pressure yesterday with price discounts now showing up in all major primal areas of the beef carcass. We talked the last several weeks about how most major retail and wholesale buyers were hand to mouth in their purchases and due to the production cutbacks through the holidays were forced to pay up for product to get their inventory positions back into comfortable levels. Most of that buying has been completed as of late last week, and now many of the major buyers of boxed beef have moved to the sidelines looking for opportunities in the marketplace. This had packinghouse meat salesmen offering ribeyes, chuck rolls, knuckles, and peeled tenders along with many other items throughout the beef carcass at lower money. It appears as though some of the export business we saw the last couple of weeks might have been sufficed as well with chuck rolls and short ribs becoming more available in the marketplace. Ground beef demand remains very robust at the retail level and in many instances demand outweighs availability of product. With packer margins in such good shape I would imagine they will want to take advantage of the current situation and overkill for current demand. I will continue to look for a lower trend to the boxed beef market into the end of the month, with choice cutout values targeting the $1.45-$1.48 area in coming weeks.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.27, April live cattle settled at $85.20 a loss of $.15, and the June live cattle settled at $84.10 a gain of $.05. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $92.87 a loss of $.12, March feeder cattle settled at $91.35 a loss of $.40, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.80 a loss of $.70. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/20/09 was $95.98 a gain of $.02. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.85 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.10 a loss of $.20, June/August settled at -$.72 a loss of $.02. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.52 a gain of $.27, March/April settled at -$1.45 a gain of $.30, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.47.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,553 contracts trade in the pit and 14,332 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 3,070 contracts to come in this morning at 205,110. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,266 contracts trade in the pit and 1,808 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 71 contracts to come in this morning at 21,263.
The futures market was under pressure again yesterday early in the session with technical selling flourishing linked to lower stock markets and the pricing of lower cash cattle markets for this week. We did manage to find some support around midsession as declines in the equity markets abated and hedge lifting came into the market as feedlots in the north began to sell cattle. Contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb live and $82.45 in April live are now a stones through away and one would have to assume that we will be down challenging those lows by early next week given all the negativity in the marketplace. Feeder cattle might have done their job to the downside for a minute with the March contract getting into the $90.50 area early in the session, which is pricing a $5.00 break in the CME index by the first of Feb. The cattle futures market will continue to be ultra sensitive to moves in the equity markets and we will have to see if the late rally in the Dow holds for a day or two. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week, so this along with squaring of positions ahead of this Friday’s cattle on feed report might stem some of the recent selling. Estimates for the report are on feed Dec 1, 93.9%, placed during December, 100.1%, and marketed during December, 99.3%. For the balance of this week, keep an eye on the above mentioned contract lows in Feb and April live cattle and the $90 area in March feeder cattle. Violating any of those price levels on the downside by Friday would open the door for another leg down in prices starting next week, unless we get a wildly bullish report Friday afternoon. Look for a $.10-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned moderately active in the north yesterday with sales running generally $1-$3 lower when compared to last week. The USDA was reporting 7,400 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $81-$82 live and $1.32 dressed and 9,600 head of cattle sold in Colorado at $82.50 live and $1.32 dressed. Packers in Texas and Kansas were bidding $81-$82 with most feedlots opting to pass on those bids. Lower cattle futures and boxed beef markets were the catalysts for the lower trade yesterday, and it now looks like the southern trade will inevitably take place at $82-$83. Fat cattle at the Sioux Falls, SD auction market were also being marked about $1 lower yesterday with the beef fats bringing $80-$82 and the Holstein fats bringing $69-$72. Slaughter cow markets are firm by $1-$2 this week with the majority of the cutter and boning utility cows bringing $43-$48 and the breakers and whites bringing $48-$56. Most feeder cattle sales around the country are turning $1-$3 lower results. Sales like El Reno, OK and Dodge City, KS were calling their market that way yesterday with the majority of the 600 lbs to 800 lbs steer cattle bringing $88-$99. The fed cattle market is dragging the feeder cattle market lower as we get into the last half of January. Boxed beef values are expected to drift down to the mid-$1.40’s basis the choice cutout, which should begin to support cash fed cattle values at current price levels, given that packers are currently making $35-$40 per head. Much of this break has already been priced into the futures and this week’s cash market, which should mean that we could find some support down here for a week or two until we see what kind of demand develops into the first of February. Cash feeder cattle values could have a little more to loose, however the board has already priced in a lower $90’s CME feeder index with yesterdays price action. Cows should find some support at current price levels as there is very good demand for ground beef right now and imports from overseas are down due to production cutbacks in South America and Australia.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 11,000 head below last week and 6,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 364,000 head, which would be 7,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.22 lower to settle at $151.75 and the select cutout closing $1.15 lower to settle at $144.52. Sales volume was good with 375 loads of beef sold (137.13 loads of choice fab cuts, 140.97 loads of select fab cuts, 15.27 loads of trim, 81.61 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.23 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was under pressure yesterday with price discounts now showing up in all major primal areas of the beef carcass. We talked the last several weeks about how most major retail and wholesale buyers were hand to mouth in their purchases and due to the production cutbacks through the holidays were forced to pay up for product to get their inventory positions back into comfortable levels. Most of that buying has been completed as of late last week, and now many of the major buyers of boxed beef have moved to the sidelines looking for opportunities in the marketplace. This had packinghouse meat salesmen offering ribeyes, chuck rolls, knuckles, and peeled tenders along with many other items throughout the beef carcass at lower money. It appears as though some of the export business we saw the last couple of weeks might have been sufficed as well with chuck rolls and short ribs becoming more available in the marketplace. Ground beef demand remains very robust at the retail level and in many instances demand outweighs availability of product. With packer margins in such good shape I would imagine they will want to take advantage of the current situation and overkill for current demand. I will continue to look for a lower trend to the boxed beef market into the end of the month, with choice cutout values targeting the $1.45-$1.48 area in coming weeks.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.27, April live cattle settled at $85.20 a loss of $.15, and the June live cattle settled at $84.10 a gain of $.05. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $92.87 a loss of $.12, March feeder cattle settled at $91.35 a loss of $.40, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.80 a loss of $.70. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/20/09 was $95.98 a gain of $.02. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.85 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.10 a loss of $.20, June/August settled at -$.72 a loss of $.02. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.52 a gain of $.27, March/April settled at -$1.45 a gain of $.30, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.47.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,553 contracts trade in the pit and 14,332 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 3,070 contracts to come in this morning at 205,110. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,266 contracts trade in the pit and 1,808 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 71 contracts to come in this morning at 21,263.
The futures market was under pressure again yesterday early in the session with technical selling flourishing linked to lower stock markets and the pricing of lower cash cattle markets for this week. We did manage to find some support around midsession as declines in the equity markets abated and hedge lifting came into the market as feedlots in the north began to sell cattle. Contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb live and $82.45 in April live are now a stones through away and one would have to assume that we will be down challenging those lows by early next week given all the negativity in the marketplace. Feeder cattle might have done their job to the downside for a minute with the March contract getting into the $90.50 area early in the session, which is pricing a $5.00 break in the CME index by the first of Feb. The cattle futures market will continue to be ultra sensitive to moves in the equity markets and we will have to see if the late rally in the Dow holds for a day or two. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week, so this along with squaring of positions ahead of this Friday’s cattle on feed report might stem some of the recent selling. Estimates for the report are on feed Dec 1, 93.9%, placed during December, 100.1%, and marketed during December, 99.3%. For the balance of this week, keep an eye on the above mentioned contract lows in Feb and April live cattle and the $90 area in March feeder cattle. Violating any of those price levels on the downside by Friday would open the door for another leg down in prices starting next week, unless we get a wildly bullish report Friday afternoon. Look for a $.10-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
January 21, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market was untested with just a few bids surfacing in the south at $82-$83 and most feedlots priced at $87 in the south and $1.38 in the north. Last weeks market showed approximately 36,000 head of cattle sold in Texas at $84.50, 44,000 head of cattle sold in Kansas at $83-$84 live and $1.32-$1.35 dressed, and 71,000 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $83-$83.50 live and mostly $1.35 dressed, all of which would be $.50-$1 higher on the week. Showlists are mostly larger in all feeding areas again this week except for Kansas as movement in the south was a little light and more cattle become available for market in the north. The beef market, while sharply higher all of last week and modestly higher the first couple of days this week, is going to start to drift lower as most near term buying in the market gets wrapped up. Fed cattle numbers will remain ample in the northern feeding areas of the country for another couple of weeks, which will keep rallies in the market in check, unless we see some sort of weather event or some new beef demand surfaces. With the board closing like it did yesterday we will need to see some sort of turnaround in order to stave off a lower fed cattle market for this week. The way things look right now we would have to call for a steady to $.50-$1 lower fed cattle trade for this week. Feeder cattle markets carry a mostly lower undertone early this week again, with sales such as Oklahoma City and La Junta, Colorado calling their markets mostly $1-$2 lower. Most of this weakness is being found in the bigger yearling type cattle as softness in the futures market and the inability of the fed cattle market to hold much of a rally has buyers trying to buy replacement cattle at lower money. With that said though, most of the major feeding companies remain aggressive buyers for cattle weighing 700 lbs-800 lbs as they try to fill empty pen space and get cattle placed into late spring and early summer. The sales that these guys show up at carry a mostly steady to higher undertone. There is also talk about the first of the year feeder cattle run beginning to dry up and that feeder cattle numbers will become shorter as we get into the end of January. Look for feeder cattle values to drift sideways to lower for the balance of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, would be 1,000 head below last week and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Including Mondays 116,000 head slaughter the week-to-date kill now stands at 241,000 head, which would be 3,000 head behind last weeks pace with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.75 higher to settle at $152.97 and the select cutout closing $.82 higher to settle at $145.67. Sales volume was light with 172 loads of beef sold (56.34 loads of choice fab cuts, 64.11 loads of select fab cuts, 10.22 loads of trim, 41.00 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.30 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was higher yesterday, however there were pockets of weakness beginning to show up in certain primal areas of the carcass. Discounts were beginning to surface in many items throughout the round complex as well as some weakness start5ing to develop in the loin complex. PSMO’s were the main area packers needed to offer discounts as some of the demand ahead of Valentines Day gets filled. Rib and chuck items were still trading steady to higher yesterday, however I think we could end up seeing some lower prices in ribeyes by the end of the week. Ground beef remains in very good demand and higher prices continue to be the norm there. I would start to look for cutout values to begin to drift lower by the end of the week as much of the near term demand we saw the last couple of weeks begins to wane.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.62 a loss of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $85.35 a loss of $2.32, and June live cattle settled at $84.05 a loss of $2.15. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.00 a loss of $2.00, March feeder cattle settled at $91.75 a loss of $2.62, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $2.45. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/19/09 was $95.96 a loss of $.27. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.72 a gain of $.42, April/June settled at $1.30 a loss of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.70 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.25 a gain of $.25, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.17, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 25,642 contracts trade in the pit and 13,631 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 2,419 contracts to come in this morning at 203,960. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,007 contracts trade in the pit and 992 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 64 contracts to come in this morning at 21,226.
Cattle futures started the week on the defensive with live and feeder cattle ending yesterday’s session with sharp losses. Much of the weakness can be attributed to weakness in the equity markets and uncertainty over the banking sector. However, I think the market wasn’t very impressed with the way cattle sold in Texas late on Friday as many were expecting an $85 or better trade. Also there was some concern that the beef market is going to start to move a little lower. Technically the market does not look very good closing into new lows not seen since mid-December. $82 will now be an area that needs to hold in the Feb live cattle otherwise a test of contract lows of $80.60 will be in the cards. That same number in the April cattle comes at $85, otherwise contract lows of $82.45 will be in the cards. March feeders look like they want to go test psychological support at $90 and failing to hold that would keep downside targets of $84.20 in play. Keep an eye on the stock market because if that starts to fail again cattle will follow. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market was untested with just a few bids surfacing in the south at $82-$83 and most feedlots priced at $87 in the south and $1.38 in the north. Last weeks market showed approximately 36,000 head of cattle sold in Texas at $84.50, 44,000 head of cattle sold in Kansas at $83-$84 live and $1.32-$1.35 dressed, and 71,000 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $83-$83.50 live and mostly $1.35 dressed, all of which would be $.50-$1 higher on the week. Showlists are mostly larger in all feeding areas again this week except for Kansas as movement in the south was a little light and more cattle become available for market in the north. The beef market, while sharply higher all of last week and modestly higher the first couple of days this week, is going to start to drift lower as most near term buying in the market gets wrapped up. Fed cattle numbers will remain ample in the northern feeding areas of the country for another couple of weeks, which will keep rallies in the market in check, unless we see some sort of weather event or some new beef demand surfaces. With the board closing like it did yesterday we will need to see some sort of turnaround in order to stave off a lower fed cattle market for this week. The way things look right now we would have to call for a steady to $.50-$1 lower fed cattle trade for this week. Feeder cattle markets carry a mostly lower undertone early this week again, with sales such as Oklahoma City and La Junta, Colorado calling their markets mostly $1-$2 lower. Most of this weakness is being found in the bigger yearling type cattle as softness in the futures market and the inability of the fed cattle market to hold much of a rally has buyers trying to buy replacement cattle at lower money. With that said though, most of the major feeding companies remain aggressive buyers for cattle weighing 700 lbs-800 lbs as they try to fill empty pen space and get cattle placed into late spring and early summer. The sales that these guys show up at carry a mostly steady to higher undertone. There is also talk about the first of the year feeder cattle run beginning to dry up and that feeder cattle numbers will become shorter as we get into the end of January. Look for feeder cattle values to drift sideways to lower for the balance of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, would be 1,000 head below last week and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Including Mondays 116,000 head slaughter the week-to-date kill now stands at 241,000 head, which would be 3,000 head behind last weeks pace with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.75 higher to settle at $152.97 and the select cutout closing $.82 higher to settle at $145.67. Sales volume was light with 172 loads of beef sold (56.34 loads of choice fab cuts, 64.11 loads of select fab cuts, 10.22 loads of trim, 41.00 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.30 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was higher yesterday, however there were pockets of weakness beginning to show up in certain primal areas of the carcass. Discounts were beginning to surface in many items throughout the round complex as well as some weakness start5ing to develop in the loin complex. PSMO’s were the main area packers needed to offer discounts as some of the demand ahead of Valentines Day gets filled. Rib and chuck items were still trading steady to higher yesterday, however I think we could end up seeing some lower prices in ribeyes by the end of the week. Ground beef remains in very good demand and higher prices continue to be the norm there. I would start to look for cutout values to begin to drift lower by the end of the week as much of the near term demand we saw the last couple of weeks begins to wane.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.62 a loss of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $85.35 a loss of $2.32, and June live cattle settled at $84.05 a loss of $2.15. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.00 a loss of $2.00, March feeder cattle settled at $91.75 a loss of $2.62, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $2.45. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/19/09 was $95.96 a loss of $.27. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.72 a gain of $.42, April/June settled at $1.30 a loss of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.70 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.25 a gain of $.25, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.17, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 25,642 contracts trade in the pit and 13,631 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 2,419 contracts to come in this morning at 203,960. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,007 contracts trade in the pit and 992 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 64 contracts to come in this morning at 21,226.
Cattle futures started the week on the defensive with live and feeder cattle ending yesterday’s session with sharp losses. Much of the weakness can be attributed to weakness in the equity markets and uncertainty over the banking sector. However, I think the market wasn’t very impressed with the way cattle sold in Texas late on Friday as many were expecting an $85 or better trade. Also there was some concern that the beef market is going to start to move a little lower. Technically the market does not look very good closing into new lows not seen since mid-December. $82 will now be an area that needs to hold in the Feb live cattle otherwise a test of contract lows of $80.60 will be in the cards. That same number in the April cattle comes at $85, otherwise contract lows of $82.45 will be in the cards. March feeders look like they want to go test psychological support at $90 and failing to hold that would keep downside targets of $84.20 in play. Keep an eye on the stock market because if that starts to fail again cattle will follow. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 16, 2009
January 16, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a few more cattle trade yesterday at steady to $.50 higher when compared to Wednesday. The majors stepped into the market yesterday paying $83.50/$1.35 on cattle in Nebraska and Kansas. It looks as though we sold about 8,000 head of cattle in Kansas and 12,000 head of cattle in Nebraska. There were some cattle that sold in Colorado for $83.50 and further cleanup trade in western Iowa at $1.36-$1.37. Texas feedlot managers did not sell any cattle yesterday as the board looked like it had some support and there showlist numbers are manageable. We should see Texas feedlots let loose of cattle today at no worse than steady money, with a pretty good chance of $1 higher. Going home for the weekend slaughter cows are under pressure, however there still remains good support in the cash feeder cattle market. Most feeder cattle sales continue to report steady to higher transactions on lightweight cattle, however there was a softer undertone beginning to develop on the 7-8 weight cattle.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 482,000 head, which would be 4,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.85 higher to settle at $150.75 and the select cutout closing $.81 higher to settle at $143.62. Sales volume was good with 278 loads of beef sold (92.37 loads of choice fab cuts, 101.17 loads of select fab cuts, 30.31 loads of grinds, 54.41 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.13 a gain of $.04.
The beef market was higher again yesterday with the choice cutout closing back above $1.50 for the first time since the beginning of December. Yesterday saw continued price strength in the choice ribeye and PSMO market, as retailers and restaurant buyers secure product ahead of Valentines Day. There was also higher prices being paid on chuck rolls and certain round cuts. Ground beef and boneless markets were higher again yesterday as the retail community aggressively features hamburger product. Foodservice accounts also add to the strength in the ground beef complex. As I mentioned yesterday we could be getting close to seeing some of this near term beef demand being sufficed. Again, I am not saying we are in for a big break in beef prices; however we could start to see some of the recent gains begin to slow the acceleration. Look for the beef market to trend sideways into the first part of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.00, April live cattle settled at $87.30 a gain of $.47, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.00 a loss of $.70, March feeder cattle settled at $94.30 a loss of $.32, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.55 a loss of $.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/14/09 was $96.24 a loss of $.25. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.95 a gain of $.52, April/June settled at $1.60 a gain of $.47, and the June/August settled at -$.67 a loss of $.12. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $.70 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.25 a gain of $.35, and the April/May settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.55.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 31,573 contracts trade in the pit and 18,871 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 4,071 contracts to come in this morning at 205,315. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,035 contracts trade in the pit and 1,047 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 494 contracts to come in this morning at 21,236.
It was another choppy day in the cattle futures market yesterday as the knuckleheads who like to sell fat and feeder cattle futures because the Dow is lower were out in full force on the open, only to end up buying back those positions late in the day once the stock market started to rally. We have talked about how the fundamentals of the cash fed and feeder cattle market are supportive enough to promote higher cash and futures prices, and I think this train of thought is what prevailed by the close of trade yesterday. With that said, we will keep an eye on overhead resistance levels mentioned earlier in the week at $85 in Feb live cattle, $88.50 on April live cattle, and $95 in March feeder cattle to determine price direction for next week. Closing above these price points by the close today would keep the market positive into next week in my opinion. Holding below these resistance levels by the close today would keep risk of lower prices in the cards. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open, which should support a $.20-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Keep in mind the futures market will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a few more cattle trade yesterday at steady to $.50 higher when compared to Wednesday. The majors stepped into the market yesterday paying $83.50/$1.35 on cattle in Nebraska and Kansas. It looks as though we sold about 8,000 head of cattle in Kansas and 12,000 head of cattle in Nebraska. There were some cattle that sold in Colorado for $83.50 and further cleanup trade in western Iowa at $1.36-$1.37. Texas feedlot managers did not sell any cattle yesterday as the board looked like it had some support and there showlist numbers are manageable. We should see Texas feedlots let loose of cattle today at no worse than steady money, with a pretty good chance of $1 higher. Going home for the weekend slaughter cows are under pressure, however there still remains good support in the cash feeder cattle market. Most feeder cattle sales continue to report steady to higher transactions on lightweight cattle, however there was a softer undertone beginning to develop on the 7-8 weight cattle.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 482,000 head, which would be 4,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.85 higher to settle at $150.75 and the select cutout closing $.81 higher to settle at $143.62. Sales volume was good with 278 loads of beef sold (92.37 loads of choice fab cuts, 101.17 loads of select fab cuts, 30.31 loads of grinds, 54.41 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.13 a gain of $.04.
The beef market was higher again yesterday with the choice cutout closing back above $1.50 for the first time since the beginning of December. Yesterday saw continued price strength in the choice ribeye and PSMO market, as retailers and restaurant buyers secure product ahead of Valentines Day. There was also higher prices being paid on chuck rolls and certain round cuts. Ground beef and boneless markets were higher again yesterday as the retail community aggressively features hamburger product. Foodservice accounts also add to the strength in the ground beef complex. As I mentioned yesterday we could be getting close to seeing some of this near term beef demand being sufficed. Again, I am not saying we are in for a big break in beef prices; however we could start to see some of the recent gains begin to slow the acceleration. Look for the beef market to trend sideways into the first part of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.00, April live cattle settled at $87.30 a gain of $.47, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.00 a loss of $.70, March feeder cattle settled at $94.30 a loss of $.32, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.55 a loss of $.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/14/09 was $96.24 a loss of $.25. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.95 a gain of $.52, April/June settled at $1.60 a gain of $.47, and the June/August settled at -$.67 a loss of $.12. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $.70 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.25 a gain of $.35, and the April/May settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.55.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 31,573 contracts trade in the pit and 18,871 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 4,071 contracts to come in this morning at 205,315. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,035 contracts trade in the pit and 1,047 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 494 contracts to come in this morning at 21,236.
It was another choppy day in the cattle futures market yesterday as the knuckleheads who like to sell fat and feeder cattle futures because the Dow is lower were out in full force on the open, only to end up buying back those positions late in the day once the stock market started to rally. We have talked about how the fundamentals of the cash fed and feeder cattle market are supportive enough to promote higher cash and futures prices, and I think this train of thought is what prevailed by the close of trade yesterday. With that said, we will keep an eye on overhead resistance levels mentioned earlier in the week at $85 in Feb live cattle, $88.50 on April live cattle, and $95 in March feeder cattle to determine price direction for next week. Closing above these price points by the close today would keep the market positive into next week in my opinion. Holding below these resistance levels by the close today would keep risk of lower prices in the cards. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open, which should support a $.20-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Keep in mind the futures market will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
January 15, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light test of the northern dressed trade in feedlot cattle yesterday, with one of the smaller Omaha packers paying $1.36-$1.38 dressed on about five thousand head of cattle in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The $1.38 was said to be paid on a package of high grading cattle early in the morning and those bids were pulled back to $1.36 late where the majority of the trade took place. There was also about a thousand head of hedged cattle that reportedly sold in Kansas at $83. The rest of feeding country was quiet with feedlots resisting bids from the major packers of $82 live and $1.30-$1.32 dressed looking to get $1.36-$1.38/$86-$87. The beef market continues to trade at higher money with the choice cutout closing back near $1.50 for the first time since the first of December. However, there is a larger offering of fed cattle for the packer to chose from this week and there are a few packing companies that are a little short bought and as such are cutting production hours to manage margins from the supply side. There was a pretty choppy trade in the futures yesterday, however front month contracts did manage to come back from steep losses early in the session. Still feel that even with all the gyrations in the market that this weeks fed cattle trade should be no worse than steady, and if we were to see some strength in the futures today that there would be a very good possibility of $.50-$1 higher for feedlot cattle by the end of the week. Keep in mind that it was a mostly $84 live trade in the south last week and $1.34-$1.36 dressed in the north.
The salebarn trade of cattle saw mostly lower prices on the fed cattle yesterday. Sioux Falls, SD was calling their weekly fed cattle auction $1-$2 lower yesterday with the choice beef steers bringing $81-$83 and the choice Holsteins bringing $70-$72. Slaughter cows in Sioux Falls were being called $2-$3 lower with the bulk of the cutters and boners bringing $39-$45. Feeder cattle markets are mixed as we head into the end of the week, with some sales reporting higher results and some lower. Torrington, WY had an estimated run of 3,700 head yesterday with that market being called $3 higher on the cattle weighing under 700 lbs and $2 lower on cattle weighing over 700 lbs. The majority of the cattle weighing 6-8 were bringing $95-$100. There remains pretty good demand for feeder cattle to get placed into late spring/early summer fed cattle marketing timeframes and with the recent run of feeder cattle coming to market expected to taper off in the coming weeks, I would expect to see some support in the cash feeder cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 112,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above last week and 10,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 357,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher with the choice cutout closing $.64 higher to settle at $149.90 and the select cutout closing $.88 higher to settle at $142.81. Sales volume was good with 376 loads of beef sold (145.99 loads of choice fab cuts, 123.31 loads of select fab cuts, 18.36 loads of trim, 88.02 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.10 a loss of $.24.
The beef market was higher again yesterday on continued buyer demand for quick ship of middle meat product ahead of Valentines Day. Yesterday saw a solid performance in choice bone-in and boneless ribeyes with values gaining $.10-$.20 along with $.05-$.10 gains in bone-in and boneless strips. There was the usual buying in chuck and rounds cuts yesterday with clods and boneless rounds attracting the attention of some buyers yesterday. Steady to higher was the call for chuck rolls and short ribs yesterday. The ground beef market settled down yesterday with steady prices being paid on most coarse ground items. Boneless beef markets were mixed, with lower prices being paid on domestic cow 90’s and imported cow and bull grinding material. The fed cattle 50% trim was higher again yesterday with wtd ave prices now at $.80 a gain of $.15 since the first of the year. We could likely see the beef market cool down a bit as some of this near term buying gets wrapped up. Since last Thursday choice cutout values have gained $6.15 and select cutout values have gained $6.05 on pretty good volume. I don’t know if we will see a big break in the beef market, however to see the market stall out at current values shouldn’t be unexpected. Much will depend on how well packers manage production levels. The USDA and USMEF released November export data for beef and pork yesterday, with beef exports for the month of November running 14% above 2007 at 45,633 MT. Year-to-date Jan-Nov 2008 beef exports were 37% above the same period in 2007 at 582,270 MT. November pork exports were 4% above a year ago at 119,911 MT, with the ytd Jan-Nov total running 54% above the same period in 2007 at 1,463,566 MT. Beef exports for the week of January 2-8. 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,900 MT were mainly for Mexico (2,500 MT), Vietnam (1,800 MT), Canada (1,700 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (2,700 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), and Vietnam (1,200 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.35 a loss of $.72, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a loss of $.75, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 a loss of $.30. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.70 a loss of $.65, March feeder cattle settled at $94.62 a loss of $.27, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.22 a loss of $.22. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/13/09 was $96.49 a loss of $.10. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.47 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $1.12 a loss of $.45, June/August settled at -$.55 a loss of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.07 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.60 a loss of $.05, April/May settled at -$1.20 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 46,387 contracts trade in the pit and 24,009 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 145 contracts to come in this morning at 201,284. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,190 contracts trade in the pit and 727 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 11 contracts to come in this morning at 20,712.
Live and feeder cattle futures had a wild ride yesterday with the market opening lower and trading sharply lower early on profit taking from Tuesday’s rally and weakness in equity and outside commodity markets. Once early selling dried up and word of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices being paid in Nebraska and Iowa hit Chicago, the market staged an impressive rally into the noon hour, only to have some of those gains trimmed going into the close due to the last day of the official “Goldman Roll”. Had it not been for the late roll of Feb longs into deferred month futures, we likely would have closed Feb higher on the day. June forward live cattle and March forward feeder cattle managed to hold onto most of their late session rally going into the close. It looks like the Goldman’s rolled about 8,000 cars late in the day, with Feb open interest going down 8,740 and April OI going up 6,267 and June OI going up 1,948. This morning could see a reprieve of selling pressure in cattle futures as most of the index fund rebalancing should be completed and the official roll period of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is over. We managed to hold some of the weekly support I was looking at yesterday basis $81 in Feb and $85 in April live as well as $92 in March feeders. We still have plenty of overhead resistance to deal with though, as $85 in Feb live and $88.50 in April live will be tough barriers to get through by Friday. March feeders ran right into stiff resistance at $95 on the midday rally yesterday, and this, along with the above mentioned live cattle resistance prices, will need to be taken out on a closing basis in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. There should continue to be some optimism towards the cash fed cattle trade this week and I think we are finding willing spec short covering on recent breaks in the market, which should continue to provide a level of support under live and feeder cattle futures for the balance of the week. Overnight stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly lower open. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light test of the northern dressed trade in feedlot cattle yesterday, with one of the smaller Omaha packers paying $1.36-$1.38 dressed on about five thousand head of cattle in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The $1.38 was said to be paid on a package of high grading cattle early in the morning and those bids were pulled back to $1.36 late where the majority of the trade took place. There was also about a thousand head of hedged cattle that reportedly sold in Kansas at $83. The rest of feeding country was quiet with feedlots resisting bids from the major packers of $82 live and $1.30-$1.32 dressed looking to get $1.36-$1.38/$86-$87. The beef market continues to trade at higher money with the choice cutout closing back near $1.50 for the first time since the first of December. However, there is a larger offering of fed cattle for the packer to chose from this week and there are a few packing companies that are a little short bought and as such are cutting production hours to manage margins from the supply side. There was a pretty choppy trade in the futures yesterday, however front month contracts did manage to come back from steep losses early in the session. Still feel that even with all the gyrations in the market that this weeks fed cattle trade should be no worse than steady, and if we were to see some strength in the futures today that there would be a very good possibility of $.50-$1 higher for feedlot cattle by the end of the week. Keep in mind that it was a mostly $84 live trade in the south last week and $1.34-$1.36 dressed in the north.
The salebarn trade of cattle saw mostly lower prices on the fed cattle yesterday. Sioux Falls, SD was calling their weekly fed cattle auction $1-$2 lower yesterday with the choice beef steers bringing $81-$83 and the choice Holsteins bringing $70-$72. Slaughter cows in Sioux Falls were being called $2-$3 lower with the bulk of the cutters and boners bringing $39-$45. Feeder cattle markets are mixed as we head into the end of the week, with some sales reporting higher results and some lower. Torrington, WY had an estimated run of 3,700 head yesterday with that market being called $3 higher on the cattle weighing under 700 lbs and $2 lower on cattle weighing over 700 lbs. The majority of the cattle weighing 6-8 were bringing $95-$100. There remains pretty good demand for feeder cattle to get placed into late spring/early summer fed cattle marketing timeframes and with the recent run of feeder cattle coming to market expected to taper off in the coming weeks, I would expect to see some support in the cash feeder cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 112,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above last week and 10,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 357,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher with the choice cutout closing $.64 higher to settle at $149.90 and the select cutout closing $.88 higher to settle at $142.81. Sales volume was good with 376 loads of beef sold (145.99 loads of choice fab cuts, 123.31 loads of select fab cuts, 18.36 loads of trim, 88.02 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.10 a loss of $.24.
The beef market was higher again yesterday on continued buyer demand for quick ship of middle meat product ahead of Valentines Day. Yesterday saw a solid performance in choice bone-in and boneless ribeyes with values gaining $.10-$.20 along with $.05-$.10 gains in bone-in and boneless strips. There was the usual buying in chuck and rounds cuts yesterday with clods and boneless rounds attracting the attention of some buyers yesterday. Steady to higher was the call for chuck rolls and short ribs yesterday. The ground beef market settled down yesterday with steady prices being paid on most coarse ground items. Boneless beef markets were mixed, with lower prices being paid on domestic cow 90’s and imported cow and bull grinding material. The fed cattle 50% trim was higher again yesterday with wtd ave prices now at $.80 a gain of $.15 since the first of the year. We could likely see the beef market cool down a bit as some of this near term buying gets wrapped up. Since last Thursday choice cutout values have gained $6.15 and select cutout values have gained $6.05 on pretty good volume. I don’t know if we will see a big break in the beef market, however to see the market stall out at current values shouldn’t be unexpected. Much will depend on how well packers manage production levels. The USDA and USMEF released November export data for beef and pork yesterday, with beef exports for the month of November running 14% above 2007 at 45,633 MT. Year-to-date Jan-Nov 2008 beef exports were 37% above the same period in 2007 at 582,270 MT. November pork exports were 4% above a year ago at 119,911 MT, with the ytd Jan-Nov total running 54% above the same period in 2007 at 1,463,566 MT. Beef exports for the week of January 2-8. 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,900 MT were mainly for Mexico (2,500 MT), Vietnam (1,800 MT), Canada (1,700 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (2,700 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), and Vietnam (1,200 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.35 a loss of $.72, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a loss of $.75, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 a loss of $.30. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.70 a loss of $.65, March feeder cattle settled at $94.62 a loss of $.27, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.22 a loss of $.22. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/13/09 was $96.49 a loss of $.10. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.47 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $1.12 a loss of $.45, June/August settled at -$.55 a loss of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.07 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.60 a loss of $.05, April/May settled at -$1.20 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 46,387 contracts trade in the pit and 24,009 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 145 contracts to come in this morning at 201,284. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,190 contracts trade in the pit and 727 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 11 contracts to come in this morning at 20,712.
Live and feeder cattle futures had a wild ride yesterday with the market opening lower and trading sharply lower early on profit taking from Tuesday’s rally and weakness in equity and outside commodity markets. Once early selling dried up and word of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices being paid in Nebraska and Iowa hit Chicago, the market staged an impressive rally into the noon hour, only to have some of those gains trimmed going into the close due to the last day of the official “Goldman Roll”. Had it not been for the late roll of Feb longs into deferred month futures, we likely would have closed Feb higher on the day. June forward live cattle and March forward feeder cattle managed to hold onto most of their late session rally going into the close. It looks like the Goldman’s rolled about 8,000 cars late in the day, with Feb open interest going down 8,740 and April OI going up 6,267 and June OI going up 1,948. This morning could see a reprieve of selling pressure in cattle futures as most of the index fund rebalancing should be completed and the official roll period of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is over. We managed to hold some of the weekly support I was looking at yesterday basis $81 in Feb and $85 in April live as well as $92 in March feeders. We still have plenty of overhead resistance to deal with though, as $85 in Feb live and $88.50 in April live will be tough barriers to get through by Friday. March feeders ran right into stiff resistance at $95 on the midday rally yesterday, and this, along with the above mentioned live cattle resistance prices, will need to be taken out on a closing basis in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. There should continue to be some optimism towards the cash fed cattle trade this week and I think we are finding willing spec short covering on recent breaks in the market, which should continue to provide a level of support under live and feeder cattle futures for the balance of the week. Overnight stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly lower open. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
January 14, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlot offering prices remaining at $87-$88 live and $1.38 dressed. Higher settlements on the futures board and in the beef market along with winter weather in the northern feeding sections of the country should continue to support ideas of a higher cash trade by the end of the week. Beef demand and movement hasn’t been too bad this week and it is said that a few packers could be getting a little short bought on inventory. Showlists are a little larger in most feeding regions again this week, which along with Jan contract cattle being available could give packers a little leverage in this weeks price negotiations. I will still call for a mostly steady to $.50-$1 higher cash fed cattle trade by the end of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Monday’s slaughter was revised down to 119,000 head, which now puts the week-to-date kill at 245,000 head, even with the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $1.66 higher to settle at $149.26 and the select cutout closing $2.47 higher to settle at $141.93. Sales volume was good with 272 loads of beef sold (118.68 loads of choice fab cuts, 79.62 loads of select fab cuts, 33.07 loads of trim, 40.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.33 a loss of 4.81.
The beef market continued to trend higher yesterday on renewed interest in middle meats from the retail and wholesale sectors of the market. There continues to be very good demand for ground beef and end meats and this is helping packers to advance cutout values. Continue to look for a mostly steady to higher market for the balance of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.07 a gain of $1.17, April live cattle settled at $87.57 a gain of $1.07, and the June live cattle settled at $86.00 a gain of $.55. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $96.35 a gain of $1.15, March feeder cattle settled at $94.90 a gain of $1.57, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.45 a gain of $1.37. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/12/09 was $96.59 a gain of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.50 a gain of $.10, April/June settled at $1.57 a gain of $.52, and the June/August settled at -$.47 a gain of $.25. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.45 a loss of $.42, March/April settled at -$1.55 a gain of $.20, and the April/May settled at -$1.37 a gain of $.05.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 34,921 contracts trade in the pit and 21,811 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest de3clined 2,794 contracts to come in this morning at 201,142. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,506 contracts trade in the pit and 745 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 183 contracts to come in this morning at 20,710.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on ideas the cash market would be no worse than steady this week. There was some short covering from last weeks sell off and continued unwinding of bear spreads linked to lower corn and winter weather hitting cattle feeding country. This morning the market looks like it is going to open lower on weakness in the stock market. We should find some support under the market on a lower open however as fundamentals of the fat cattle market remain friendly enough to support a higher cash trade for this week. I will continue to look for weekly support in Feb live cattle at $81 and April live cattle at $85 to hold. March feeders continue to look positive to me above $92. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlot offering prices remaining at $87-$88 live and $1.38 dressed. Higher settlements on the futures board and in the beef market along with winter weather in the northern feeding sections of the country should continue to support ideas of a higher cash trade by the end of the week. Beef demand and movement hasn’t been too bad this week and it is said that a few packers could be getting a little short bought on inventory. Showlists are a little larger in most feeding regions again this week, which along with Jan contract cattle being available could give packers a little leverage in this weeks price negotiations. I will still call for a mostly steady to $.50-$1 higher cash fed cattle trade by the end of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Monday’s slaughter was revised down to 119,000 head, which now puts the week-to-date kill at 245,000 head, even with the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $1.66 higher to settle at $149.26 and the select cutout closing $2.47 higher to settle at $141.93. Sales volume was good with 272 loads of beef sold (118.68 loads of choice fab cuts, 79.62 loads of select fab cuts, 33.07 loads of trim, 40.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.33 a loss of 4.81.
The beef market continued to trend higher yesterday on renewed interest in middle meats from the retail and wholesale sectors of the market. There continues to be very good demand for ground beef and end meats and this is helping packers to advance cutout values. Continue to look for a mostly steady to higher market for the balance of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.07 a gain of $1.17, April live cattle settled at $87.57 a gain of $1.07, and the June live cattle settled at $86.00 a gain of $.55. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $96.35 a gain of $1.15, March feeder cattle settled at $94.90 a gain of $1.57, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.45 a gain of $1.37. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/12/09 was $96.59 a gain of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.50 a gain of $.10, April/June settled at $1.57 a gain of $.52, and the June/August settled at -$.47 a gain of $.25. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.45 a loss of $.42, March/April settled at -$1.55 a gain of $.20, and the April/May settled at -$1.37 a gain of $.05.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 34,921 contracts trade in the pit and 21,811 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest de3clined 2,794 contracts to come in this morning at 201,142. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,506 contracts trade in the pit and 745 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 183 contracts to come in this morning at 20,710.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on ideas the cash market would be no worse than steady this week. There was some short covering from last weeks sell off and continued unwinding of bear spreads linked to lower corn and winter weather hitting cattle feeding country. This morning the market looks like it is going to open lower on weakness in the stock market. We should find some support under the market on a lower open however as fundamentals of the fat cattle market remain friendly enough to support a higher cash trade for this week. I will continue to look for weekly support in Feb live cattle at $81 and April live cattle at $85 to hold. March feeders continue to look positive to me above $92. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
January 13, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade was untested yesterday with showlist assembly and distribution the main feature of the day. Packers were not bidding on any cattle so early in the week, with feedlots pricing a mostly larger offering at $87-$88 live and $1.36-$1.38 dressed. The cash feedlot trade likely won’t be tested until late in the week as packers work off of last weeks buy and Jan contract and formula cattle. The beef market acts pretty good for the first part of the week and there seems to be some demand from the wholesale and retail sectors of the equation. The weather is going to get tough in the northern plains cattle feeding regions by midweek and this along with a futures board that so far seems to found a little stability will have me calling for a mostly steady to $.50 higher market. Cattle selling in the salebarns yesterday were bringing lower money on the fat cattle as that market adjusts to last weeks lower feedlot sales. Slaughter cows were mostly steady to instances of $1 lower. Feeder cattle markets were a little softer reflecting the lower futures and cash markets from last week. Oklahoma City was calling their market steady to $1 lower by the end of the day yesterday and this was the case at many sales across the country. Joplin, MO had a big run of 10,000 head yesterday with that market called mostly steady. Look for feeder cattle to remain mostly steady to $1 lower/$1 higher depending on what sale you are at.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above last week and 7,000 head below the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.12 higher to settle at $147.60 and the select cutout closing $1.71 higher to settle at $139.46. Sales volume was typical for a Monday at 261 loads of beef sold (110.70 loads of choice fab cuts, 52.46 loads of select fab cuts, 30.99 loads of trim, and 67.32 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $8.14 a gain of $.41.
The beef market found good buyer demand from the wholesale market yesterday. Of interest was buying in choice, select, and no-roll ribeyes, short loins, and PSMO’s to the tune of $.10-$.20, as guys get product into position for upcoming Valentine Day features. There was the usual buying in the end meats from retail, which kept steady to higher prices in chuck and round items. There was another strong day in chuck roll and short rib pricing with gains of $.05-$.10 noted. Ground beef markets were once again higher on good demand and movement as this is the shining star for the retailer right now. Boneless beef markets were higher yesterday, especially fed cattle 50’s with product said to be falling short of demand right now. Continue to look for a higher trending beef market into the end of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.90 a loss of $.20, April live cattle settled at $86.50 a loss of $.32, and the June live cattle settled at $85.45 a loss of $.25. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.20 a gain of $1.10, March feeder cattle settled at $93.32 a gain of $.65, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.07 a gain of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/9/09 was $96.48 a loss of $.04. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.60 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $1.05 a loss of $.07, and June/August settled at -$.72 a gain of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.87 a gain of $.45, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.42, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 38,582 contracts trade in the pit and 15,486 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 4,407 to come in this morning at 203,923. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,830 contracts trade in the pit and 580 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 299 contracts to come in this morning at 20,886.
Live cattle futures were under a degree of pressure on continued “Goldman Rolling” and index fund liquidation. Yesterday was the 3rd day of the Goldman Roll and we saw some stuff rolled into April; however there was some outright liquidation as open interest went down 4,407 yesterday. Another big feature of the day was unwinding bear spreads that were put on the last couple of weeks when corn was rallying. August open interest alone went down 1,000 cars because of this. Weekly support in live cattle futures should continue to be found at $81 in Feb and $85 in April. I think we would need to see futures get back above $85 in Feb and $88.50 in April to negate some of last weeks bearishness. Weekly feeder support comes into play at $90.50 on the March, with the market needing to get back above $94 to keep rally attempts alive. We don’t have as much outside commodity selling to contend with this morning, so I will call for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade was untested yesterday with showlist assembly and distribution the main feature of the day. Packers were not bidding on any cattle so early in the week, with feedlots pricing a mostly larger offering at $87-$88 live and $1.36-$1.38 dressed. The cash feedlot trade likely won’t be tested until late in the week as packers work off of last weeks buy and Jan contract and formula cattle. The beef market acts pretty good for the first part of the week and there seems to be some demand from the wholesale and retail sectors of the equation. The weather is going to get tough in the northern plains cattle feeding regions by midweek and this along with a futures board that so far seems to found a little stability will have me calling for a mostly steady to $.50 higher market. Cattle selling in the salebarns yesterday were bringing lower money on the fat cattle as that market adjusts to last weeks lower feedlot sales. Slaughter cows were mostly steady to instances of $1 lower. Feeder cattle markets were a little softer reflecting the lower futures and cash markets from last week. Oklahoma City was calling their market steady to $1 lower by the end of the day yesterday and this was the case at many sales across the country. Joplin, MO had a big run of 10,000 head yesterday with that market called mostly steady. Look for feeder cattle to remain mostly steady to $1 lower/$1 higher depending on what sale you are at.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above last week and 7,000 head below the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.12 higher to settle at $147.60 and the select cutout closing $1.71 higher to settle at $139.46. Sales volume was typical for a Monday at 261 loads of beef sold (110.70 loads of choice fab cuts, 52.46 loads of select fab cuts, 30.99 loads of trim, and 67.32 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $8.14 a gain of $.41.
The beef market found good buyer demand from the wholesale market yesterday. Of interest was buying in choice, select, and no-roll ribeyes, short loins, and PSMO’s to the tune of $.10-$.20, as guys get product into position for upcoming Valentine Day features. There was the usual buying in the end meats from retail, which kept steady to higher prices in chuck and round items. There was another strong day in chuck roll and short rib pricing with gains of $.05-$.10 noted. Ground beef markets were once again higher on good demand and movement as this is the shining star for the retailer right now. Boneless beef markets were higher yesterday, especially fed cattle 50’s with product said to be falling short of demand right now. Continue to look for a higher trending beef market into the end of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.90 a loss of $.20, April live cattle settled at $86.50 a loss of $.32, and the June live cattle settled at $85.45 a loss of $.25. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.20 a gain of $1.10, March feeder cattle settled at $93.32 a gain of $.65, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.07 a gain of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/9/09 was $96.48 a loss of $.04. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.60 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $1.05 a loss of $.07, and June/August settled at -$.72 a gain of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.87 a gain of $.45, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.42, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 38,582 contracts trade in the pit and 15,486 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 4,407 to come in this morning at 203,923. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,830 contracts trade in the pit and 580 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 299 contracts to come in this morning at 20,886.
Live cattle futures were under a degree of pressure on continued “Goldman Rolling” and index fund liquidation. Yesterday was the 3rd day of the Goldman Roll and we saw some stuff rolled into April; however there was some outright liquidation as open interest went down 4,407 yesterday. Another big feature of the day was unwinding bear spreads that were put on the last couple of weeks when corn was rallying. August open interest alone went down 1,000 cars because of this. Weekly support in live cattle futures should continue to be found at $81 in Feb and $85 in April. I think we would need to see futures get back above $85 in Feb and $88.50 in April to negate some of last weeks bearishness. Weekly feeder support comes into play at $90.50 on the March, with the market needing to get back above $94 to keep rally attempts alive. We don’t have as much outside commodity selling to contend with this morning, so I will call for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)