February 4, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade went untested again yesterday with just a few token bids of $80 in the south going unmatched against feedlot offering prices of $85 live and $1.35 plus dressed. We likely won’t see any meaningful trade develop before late Thursday or Friday as packers are said to have some inventory around them. Beef values continue to erode, which is starting to weigh on margins, however a lower showlist offering this week and prospects for fed cattle numbers to get tighter by the end of the month should give cattle feeders a little bargaining power. A Feb futures board trading at $83.50 should also help provide a little support to the cash fed cattle market as well. I will still call for a steady to $1/$2 higher fed cattle trade for this week. The cash feeder cattle market continues to build on gains from Monday with most sales across the circuit like Huron, SD and La Junta, CO calling their markets mostly $1-$2 higher on both lightweight cattle weighing under 700 lbs and yearling types weighing over 700 lbs. There were some exceptions as we saw a big run of cattle in Phillip, SD yesterday with that market being called mostly $1-$3 lower. Overall though there seems to be better demand in the procurement of feeder cattle since last week and I would expect to see the market trend higher into next week. As we hit the midweek point slaughter cows are trading mostly $1-$3 higher pretty much everywhere in the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 124,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below last week and 3,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 249,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below the same period last week with the industry looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.41 lower to settle at $141.12 and the select cutout closing $.80 lower to settle at $137.37. Sales volume was light with 222 loads of beef sold (91.30 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.22 loads of select fab cuts, 7.67 loads of trim, 46.02 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $3.76 a gain of $.39.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts showing up in most primal areas of the beef carcass. Ground beef markets have now taken a significant downturn in the market and this adds to overall lower cutout values. Fed cattle 50% trim was also sharply lower yesterday on softening demand from the grinding sector. Many on the buy side continue to monitor consumer pulls at the retail level, or lack there of, and as such continue to procure beef on an as need basis. Look for a continued lower trend to the beef market into late this week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.52 a loss of $.37, April live cattle settled at $86.12 a loss of $.70, and June live cattle settled at $83.75 a loss of $.60. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $93.42 a loss of $.57, April feeder cattle settled at $94.60 a loss of $.72, and May feeder cattle settled at $96.45 a loss of $.55. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/2/09 was $93.20 a loss of $.15. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.60 a gain of $.32, April/June settled at $2.37 a loss of $.10, June/August settled at -$.87 a gain of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.17 a gain of $.15, April/May settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.17, May/August settled at -$2.02 a loss of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 17,225 contracts trade in the pit and 12,179 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 486 contracts to come in this morning at 207,224. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,504 contracts trade in the pit and 663 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 89 contracts to come in this morning at 20,976.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled lower on the day yesterday as profit taking from Monday’s rally and ideas the market was a little overpriced kept futures under pressure all day. Until we can see a better demand tone out of the beef market rallies in the futures market are likely to be capped for the balance of this week. With that said though, I don’t know how much we will break either, as I expect to see higher trend to the cash cattle markets develop in the coming weeks. I would expect futures to remain choppy for the balance of the week as we pretty much already have a higher cash fed cattle trade priced in for this week. Support for the balance of the week will continue to be found at $82 in Feb, $85 in April, and $92 in March feeders. We would need to see the market start closing back above $85 in Feb, $88 in April, and $95 in March feeders to negate some of the recent bearishness. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
February 3, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
February 3, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, February 2, 2009
February 2, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that finally traded in the Texas panhandle at $82 on approximately 20,000 head. For the week feeder cattle values were steady to $3 lower with the biggest declines noticed in cattle weighing over 700 lbs. Slaughter cows were mostly $1-$3 higher on reduced numbers coming to market in the west, although dairy cow slaughter is seen increasing in major dairy producing states. Looking into this week I would expect to see cash fed cattle and feeder cattle values begin to stabilize and I would expect to find further support in the slaughter cow market. We had a bullishly construed cattle inventory report on Friday afternoon. Some highlights of the report revealed all cattle and calves as of January 1, 2009 at 94.491 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99.3%), all cows and heifer 41.005 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99%), 2008 calf crop at 36.113 mil head or 98.2% of a year ago (99.3%) and cattle on feed 13.851 mil head was 93.4% of a year ago. Pre-report estimates for the report are in parenthesis and the report shows that cattle supplies going forward are going to get tight and once we see near term demand get straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in the cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The beef market was lower last week and we can expect to see more of the same again for the first half of this week. I expect to see some support come into the beef market as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area, give or take a couple of dollars. We did see trade volumes pick up a bit on the lower market, which leads me to believe that buyers are beginning to find value in certain items as the market works lower. This would especially be true in middle meat items. Look for a softer start to the beef market this week, with some support being found late in the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
Live cattle futures lost $.67/$.70 respectively in Feb and April with June and August losing $1.70 apiece last week. Feeder cattle futures lost $1.20-$1.70 across the board last week as well with technical selling and worries over near term cash and beef demand being the catalyst for the lower markets. This week, I think we can begin to stabilize the cash markets and we should get at least some what of a friendly reaction to the cattle inventory report. The Dow and the other outside commodity markets are all lower this morning, so we probably won’t open as high as we would like to see in the cattle futures this morning and I’m sure we will find people willing to sell a higher open despite what the inventory report said on Friday. As mentioned above, we will get the near term demand fundamentals of the market straightened out in another couple of weeks, at which time I think we can see a sizeable rally in cattle futures, so I would caution about getting too bearish at current price levels. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, with more strength and less sell pressure being found in the deferred contracts as opposed to the front months. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that finally traded in the Texas panhandle at $82 on approximately 20,000 head. For the week feeder cattle values were steady to $3 lower with the biggest declines noticed in cattle weighing over 700 lbs. Slaughter cows were mostly $1-$3 higher on reduced numbers coming to market in the west, although dairy cow slaughter is seen increasing in major dairy producing states. Looking into this week I would expect to see cash fed cattle and feeder cattle values begin to stabilize and I would expect to find further support in the slaughter cow market. We had a bullishly construed cattle inventory report on Friday afternoon. Some highlights of the report revealed all cattle and calves as of January 1, 2009 at 94.491 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99.3%), all cows and heifer 41.005 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99%), 2008 calf crop at 36.113 mil head or 98.2% of a year ago (99.3%) and cattle on feed 13.851 mil head was 93.4% of a year ago. Pre-report estimates for the report are in parenthesis and the report shows that cattle supplies going forward are going to get tight and once we see near term demand get straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in the cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The beef market was lower last week and we can expect to see more of the same again for the first half of this week. I expect to see some support come into the beef market as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area, give or take a couple of dollars. We did see trade volumes pick up a bit on the lower market, which leads me to believe that buyers are beginning to find value in certain items as the market works lower. This would especially be true in middle meat items. Look for a softer start to the beef market this week, with some support being found late in the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
Live cattle futures lost $.67/$.70 respectively in Feb and April with June and August losing $1.70 apiece last week. Feeder cattle futures lost $1.20-$1.70 across the board last week as well with technical selling and worries over near term cash and beef demand being the catalyst for the lower markets. This week, I think we can begin to stabilize the cash markets and we should get at least some what of a friendly reaction to the cattle inventory report. The Dow and the other outside commodity markets are all lower this morning, so we probably won’t open as high as we would like to see in the cattle futures this morning and I’m sure we will find people willing to sell a higher open despite what the inventory report said on Friday. As mentioned above, we will get the near term demand fundamentals of the market straightened out in another couple of weeks, at which time I think we can see a sizeable rally in cattle futures, so I would caution about getting too bearish at current price levels. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, with more strength and less sell pressure being found in the deferred contracts as opposed to the front months. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 30, 2009
January 30, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw continued feedlot movement of fed cattle in Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa yesterday with each state selling about 4,000-5,000 head apiece at mostly $80 live and $1.28-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots have yet to sell any cattle and with the way the board is acting it looks like it should be an $81 market down there by this afternoon. So far this week movement looks pretty good in all trading areas with Kansas selling 34,000 head, Nebraska selling 70,000 head, Colorado selling 15,000 head, and Iowa/MN selling 24,000 head. This will help in keeping front end numbers of fed cattle manageable in the coming weeks. Going home for the weekend feeder cattle markets remain under pressure by $1-$3. I would expect to see both the cash fed cattle and feeder cattle markets begin to stabilize at current price levels going into next week. Slaughter cow markets remain $1-$3 higher going into the end of the week on good packer demand and I will look for more of the same early next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below last week and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 497,000 head, which would be 7,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.46 lower to settle at $143.77 and the select cutout closing $1.20 lower to settle at $139.68. Sales volume was good with 340 loads of beef sold (205.17 loads of choice fab cuts, 80.44 loads of select fab cuts, 20.29 loads of trim, 34.09 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.09 a loss of $1.26.
The beef market was lower yesterday as packers offer product at sharply lower price levels to entice buyers back into the market. The strategy worked with many on the buy side willing to take on extra inventory of rib and loin items at the lower market values. Boneless beef items were about the only thing that was trading at higher money yesterday as there remains good demand for processing beef from the grinding sector and cow numbers are said to be getting tighter. I am going to look for beef values to begin finding support as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area by late next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.10 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $84.32 a loss of $.10, and the June live cattle settled at $82.02 a loss of $.27. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $90.62 a gain of $.05, April feeder cattle settled at $91.65 a loss of $.15, and the May feeder cattle settled at $93.55 a gain of $.10. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/28/09 was $94.70 a loss of $.17. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.22 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $2.30 a gain of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.60 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.02 a gain of $.20, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.20, and May/August settled at -$1.60 a gain of $.50.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 26,011 contracts trade in the pit and 9,996 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 23 contracts to come in this morning at 206,973. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,714 contracts trade in the pit and 1,322 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 322 contracts to come in this morning at 22,182.
Futures managed to come back and settle mixed to slightly lower yesterday after trading sharply lower early in the session and making new contract lows in February live cattle. January feeder cattle went off the board yesterday at $94.27 without much excitement. March feeders take over as lead contract month with a $4 discount to the CME index. We have this weeks cash fed and feeder cattle markets prices about right now the market will be positioning ahead of the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released at 2:00 pm. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves on Jan 1 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. Once again the report will show that the supply side of the market remains friendly going forward and once we get the near term demand situation straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in cattle futures and cash cattle values. If we are not at a bottom, we are getting very close, so if looking for long term trading strategies I think you want to be looking at the long side of the market. Look for a $.20-$.40 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw continued feedlot movement of fed cattle in Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa yesterday with each state selling about 4,000-5,000 head apiece at mostly $80 live and $1.28-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots have yet to sell any cattle and with the way the board is acting it looks like it should be an $81 market down there by this afternoon. So far this week movement looks pretty good in all trading areas with Kansas selling 34,000 head, Nebraska selling 70,000 head, Colorado selling 15,000 head, and Iowa/MN selling 24,000 head. This will help in keeping front end numbers of fed cattle manageable in the coming weeks. Going home for the weekend feeder cattle markets remain under pressure by $1-$3. I would expect to see both the cash fed cattle and feeder cattle markets begin to stabilize at current price levels going into next week. Slaughter cow markets remain $1-$3 higher going into the end of the week on good packer demand and I will look for more of the same early next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below last week and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 497,000 head, which would be 7,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.46 lower to settle at $143.77 and the select cutout closing $1.20 lower to settle at $139.68. Sales volume was good with 340 loads of beef sold (205.17 loads of choice fab cuts, 80.44 loads of select fab cuts, 20.29 loads of trim, 34.09 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.09 a loss of $1.26.
The beef market was lower yesterday as packers offer product at sharply lower price levels to entice buyers back into the market. The strategy worked with many on the buy side willing to take on extra inventory of rib and loin items at the lower market values. Boneless beef items were about the only thing that was trading at higher money yesterday as there remains good demand for processing beef from the grinding sector and cow numbers are said to be getting tighter. I am going to look for beef values to begin finding support as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area by late next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.10 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $84.32 a loss of $.10, and the June live cattle settled at $82.02 a loss of $.27. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $90.62 a gain of $.05, April feeder cattle settled at $91.65 a loss of $.15, and the May feeder cattle settled at $93.55 a gain of $.10. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/28/09 was $94.70 a loss of $.17. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.22 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $2.30 a gain of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.60 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.02 a gain of $.20, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.20, and May/August settled at -$1.60 a gain of $.50.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 26,011 contracts trade in the pit and 9,996 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 23 contracts to come in this morning at 206,973. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,714 contracts trade in the pit and 1,322 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 322 contracts to come in this morning at 22,182.
Futures managed to come back and settle mixed to slightly lower yesterday after trading sharply lower early in the session and making new contract lows in February live cattle. January feeder cattle went off the board yesterday at $94.27 without much excitement. March feeders take over as lead contract month with a $4 discount to the CME index. We have this weeks cash fed and feeder cattle markets prices about right now the market will be positioning ahead of the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released at 2:00 pm. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves on Jan 1 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. Once again the report will show that the supply side of the market remains friendly going forward and once we get the near term demand situation straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in cattle futures and cash cattle values. If we are not at a bottom, we are getting very close, so if looking for long term trading strategies I think you want to be looking at the long side of the market. Look for a $.20-$.40 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
January 29, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw further trading in the cash feedlot market yesterday with prices drifting another $1-$2 lower from Tuesday’s trade. Kansas feedlots started trading cattle yesterday at $80-$80.50 on about 8,000 head. Nebraska feedlots saw further trade at $80-$80.50 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed on about 25,000 head, with Iowa and Colorado each selling about 5,000 head of cattle at $80 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots did not sell any cattle yesterday opting to hold out for higher money. This will likely turn out to be a futile attempt and I would look for a steady to $1 lower market in that part of the country by the end of the week. Feeder cattle sales remain under pressure going into the weekend as weakness in the fed cattle market and a few more receipts around keep pressure on that market. Slaughter cows are higher coming into the end of the week and I would continue to look for support in that market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same day a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 374,000 head, which would be 10,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.18 lower to settle at $146.23 and the select cutout closing $1.66 lower to settle at $140.88. Sales volume was good with 349 loads of beef sold (145.98 loads of choice fab cuts, 97.13 loads of select fab cuts, 20.84 loads of trim, 84.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $5.35 a gain of $.48.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts now surfacing throughout the entire beef carcass. Weekly production running 10,000 head above last week and steady at best demand for beef are reasons for the lower market. Lower money was also beginning to show up in the ground beef market. The beef market will likely continue to drift into the lower $1.40’s basis the choice cutout into the first couple of weeks of February. Exports for the week of January 16-22, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,800 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,800 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.17 a loss of $.10, April live cattle settled at $84.42 a gain of $.02, and the June live cattle settled at $82.30 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.20 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $90.57 a gain of $.30, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.80 a gain of $.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/27/09 was $94.87 a loss of $.08. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $2.12 a gain of $.02, and June/August settled at -$.32 a gain of $.42. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.62 a loss of $.20, March/April settled at -$1.22 a gain of $.02, and April/May settled at -$1.70 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 19,300 contracts trade in the pit and 11,245 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 328 contracts to come in this morning at 207,060. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,329 contracts trade in the pit and 953 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 473 contracts to come in this morning at 21,860.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled mixed yesterday with some moderate strength being found in feeder cattle by the close. Lower cash markets and idea cash cattle might be lower again next week were reasons live cattle couldn’t rally much yesterday. Spec selling and some new hedge selling were also showing up in the market yesterday. February live cattle futures are making new contract lows on the overnight Globex trade, which along with lower stock futures will certainly keep some pressure on the market today as well. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week so now the market will await the cash fed cattle trade in Texas and begin positioning for the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released tomorrow afternoon after the close. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows/heifers 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. The report again will show the supply friendliness of the market going forward into 2010/2011. Look for a lower trade in the cattle futures today and new contract lows in February live. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw further trading in the cash feedlot market yesterday with prices drifting another $1-$2 lower from Tuesday’s trade. Kansas feedlots started trading cattle yesterday at $80-$80.50 on about 8,000 head. Nebraska feedlots saw further trade at $80-$80.50 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed on about 25,000 head, with Iowa and Colorado each selling about 5,000 head of cattle at $80 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots did not sell any cattle yesterday opting to hold out for higher money. This will likely turn out to be a futile attempt and I would look for a steady to $1 lower market in that part of the country by the end of the week. Feeder cattle sales remain under pressure going into the weekend as weakness in the fed cattle market and a few more receipts around keep pressure on that market. Slaughter cows are higher coming into the end of the week and I would continue to look for support in that market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same day a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 374,000 head, which would be 10,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.18 lower to settle at $146.23 and the select cutout closing $1.66 lower to settle at $140.88. Sales volume was good with 349 loads of beef sold (145.98 loads of choice fab cuts, 97.13 loads of select fab cuts, 20.84 loads of trim, 84.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $5.35 a gain of $.48.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts now surfacing throughout the entire beef carcass. Weekly production running 10,000 head above last week and steady at best demand for beef are reasons for the lower market. Lower money was also beginning to show up in the ground beef market. The beef market will likely continue to drift into the lower $1.40’s basis the choice cutout into the first couple of weeks of February. Exports for the week of January 16-22, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,800 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,800 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.17 a loss of $.10, April live cattle settled at $84.42 a gain of $.02, and the June live cattle settled at $82.30 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.20 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $90.57 a gain of $.30, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.80 a gain of $.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/27/09 was $94.87 a loss of $.08. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $2.12 a gain of $.02, and June/August settled at -$.32 a gain of $.42. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.62 a loss of $.20, March/April settled at -$1.22 a gain of $.02, and April/May settled at -$1.70 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 19,300 contracts trade in the pit and 11,245 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 328 contracts to come in this morning at 207,060. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,329 contracts trade in the pit and 953 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 473 contracts to come in this morning at 21,860.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled mixed yesterday with some moderate strength being found in feeder cattle by the close. Lower cash markets and idea cash cattle might be lower again next week were reasons live cattle couldn’t rally much yesterday. Spec selling and some new hedge selling were also showing up in the market yesterday. February live cattle futures are making new contract lows on the overnight Globex trade, which along with lower stock futures will certainly keep some pressure on the market today as well. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week so now the market will await the cash fed cattle trade in Texas and begin positioning for the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released tomorrow afternoon after the close. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows/heifers 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. The report again will show the supply friendliness of the market going forward into 2010/2011. Look for a lower trade in the cattle futures today and new contract lows in February live. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
January 28, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light fed cattle trade develop in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late yesterday afternoon at $1-$2 lower money. Approximately 5,000-10,000 head of cattle changed hands at mostly $81 live and $1.30-$1.31 dressed yesterday afternoon in the north on fears the market was going to get worse before it gets better. Most other feedlots in the north and in the south were resisting the lower packer bids opting to see if the board can rebound any by the end of the week before negotiating prices on this week’s showlists. If we can get a rally in the futures by Friday, which could happen given oversold conditions and strength in the stock market, perhaps the rest of cattle feeding country can hold the market steady with last week. Feeder cattle markets remain under pressure with most auction markets across the country calling their markets $1-$3 lower. This will likely be the case for the next week or two until we begin to see feeder cattle numbers coming to market subside a little and we stabilize the fed cattle market. There remains a pretty good call for slaughter cows with most salebarns reporting $1-2 higher.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 11,000 head above the same period with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.72 lower to settle at $147.41 and the select cutout closing $1.01 lower to settle at $142.54. Sales volume was light with 228 loads of beef sold (97.96 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.35 loads of select fab cuts, 18.46 loads of trim, 34.55 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.87 a gain of $.29.
The beef market was lower again yesterday as slaughter levels running 11,000 head above last week at this time are being met with steady to weaker buyer demand. Most items throughout the major primal areas of the beef carcass were either trading at steady to lower price levels yesterday, with the exception of a few select middle meat items. Ground beef still had a steady call as did lean boneless beef during yesterdays trading session. With the increased fed cattle production the first part of this week, 50% fed cattle trim was starting to come under pressure yesterday. I will continue to look for boxed beef markets to drift lower into next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.27 a loss of $1.07, April live cattle settled at $84.40 a loss of $1.20, and June live cattle settled at $82.30 a loss of $1.52. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.10 a gain of $.35, March feeder cattle settled at $90.27 a loss of $1.45, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.52 a loss of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/26/09 was $94.95 a loss of $.19. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $2.10 a gain of $.32, and June/August settled at -$.75 a loss of $.15. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.82 a gain of $1.80, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.37, and April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,188 contracts trade in the pit and 10,494 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 321 contracts to come in this morning at 206,740. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,957 contracts trade in the pit and 1,119 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 382 contracts to come in this morning at 21,379.
Cattle futures were under pressure for most of the session yesterday as ideas of lower cash cattle and beef values along with formidable spec selling kept the market under wraps all day. It certainly appears as though the futures market wants to go and test old contract lows and perhaps make new lows in Feb and April live despite the recent strength we are seeing in the equity markets. We have now priced in a lower fed cattle trade for this week along with lower cash feeder markets, which could mean that we could see a reprieve in selling for today and tomorrow. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in the Dow this morning, which I think will translate into a higher open and perhaps a small rally in cattle futures this morning. If you are selling cash fed cattle down here you need to be looking for a spot to buy them back on paper. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light fed cattle trade develop in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late yesterday afternoon at $1-$2 lower money. Approximately 5,000-10,000 head of cattle changed hands at mostly $81 live and $1.30-$1.31 dressed yesterday afternoon in the north on fears the market was going to get worse before it gets better. Most other feedlots in the north and in the south were resisting the lower packer bids opting to see if the board can rebound any by the end of the week before negotiating prices on this week’s showlists. If we can get a rally in the futures by Friday, which could happen given oversold conditions and strength in the stock market, perhaps the rest of cattle feeding country can hold the market steady with last week. Feeder cattle markets remain under pressure with most auction markets across the country calling their markets $1-$3 lower. This will likely be the case for the next week or two until we begin to see feeder cattle numbers coming to market subside a little and we stabilize the fed cattle market. There remains a pretty good call for slaughter cows with most salebarns reporting $1-2 higher.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 11,000 head above the same period with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.72 lower to settle at $147.41 and the select cutout closing $1.01 lower to settle at $142.54. Sales volume was light with 228 loads of beef sold (97.96 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.35 loads of select fab cuts, 18.46 loads of trim, 34.55 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.87 a gain of $.29.
The beef market was lower again yesterday as slaughter levels running 11,000 head above last week at this time are being met with steady to weaker buyer demand. Most items throughout the major primal areas of the beef carcass were either trading at steady to lower price levels yesterday, with the exception of a few select middle meat items. Ground beef still had a steady call as did lean boneless beef during yesterdays trading session. With the increased fed cattle production the first part of this week, 50% fed cattle trim was starting to come under pressure yesterday. I will continue to look for boxed beef markets to drift lower into next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.27 a loss of $1.07, April live cattle settled at $84.40 a loss of $1.20, and June live cattle settled at $82.30 a loss of $1.52. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.10 a gain of $.35, March feeder cattle settled at $90.27 a loss of $1.45, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.52 a loss of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/26/09 was $94.95 a loss of $.19. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $2.10 a gain of $.32, and June/August settled at -$.75 a loss of $.15. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.82 a gain of $1.80, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.37, and April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,188 contracts trade in the pit and 10,494 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 321 contracts to come in this morning at 206,740. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,957 contracts trade in the pit and 1,119 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 382 contracts to come in this morning at 21,379.
Cattle futures were under pressure for most of the session yesterday as ideas of lower cash cattle and beef values along with formidable spec selling kept the market under wraps all day. It certainly appears as though the futures market wants to go and test old contract lows and perhaps make new lows in Feb and April live despite the recent strength we are seeing in the equity markets. We have now priced in a lower fed cattle trade for this week along with lower cash feeder markets, which could mean that we could see a reprieve in selling for today and tomorrow. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in the Dow this morning, which I think will translate into a higher open and perhaps a small rally in cattle futures this morning. If you are selling cash fed cattle down here you need to be looking for a spot to buy them back on paper. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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