February 13, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was mostly untested again yesterday except for a handful of cattle that changed hands in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa at steady money with last week. USDA reported 3,795 head of fed cattle sold in Nebraska at $1.30-$1.31 dressed in their afternoon report yesterday afternoon. The rest of cattle feeding country was quiet with packer bids of $80/$1.30 remaining unmatched against feedlot asking prices of $86/$1.36-$1.37. I would assume we will see trade turn active by this afternoon in all feeding areas, and the way it would appear right now it shouldn’t be any worse than steady with last week given a February board priced at $84.35. Packer margins took it on the chin again this week and it would seem like they would want to try and buy cattle cheaper this week but I don’t imagine feeders are going to want to sell many cattle at lower money with the futures holding above $84. There still haven’t been any deliveries against Feb and depending on how well the packing community can tow the line this week in terms of spending, perhaps we start seeing some deliveries next week. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cows remain under pressure as do fat cattle selling in the auction markets. Feeder cattle are strong with demand rated as aggressive by several of the major feeding companies. I would look for more of the same next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 2,000 head above last week and 3,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 494,000 head, which is running 3,000 head above last weeks pace with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was mixed yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $136.12 and the select cutout closing $.05 higher to settle at $135.25. Sales volume was light with 227 loads of beef sold (103.86 loads of choice fab cuts, 56.82 loads of select fab cuts, 24.75 loads of trim, 41.28 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $.87 a loss of $.35.
The beef market was mostly steady yesterday on light trading volume. Buyer demand was rated as slow yesterday and as such there weren’t many features to speak of. There was some light discounting noted on many items throughout the beef carcass as a result. Ground beef markets were also under some pressure yesterday, however there were a few instances of higher money being paid on trimming’s, especially the fed cattle 50’s, where talk of production cuts into next week had grinders looking to secure product. I will continue to call for a sideways to lower beef market into next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.35 a loss of $.17, April live cattle settled at $87.50 a loss of $.10, and the June live cattle settled at $85.22 a gain of $.05. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $95.15 a loss of $.25, April feeder cattle settled at $96.15 a loss of $.25, and the May feeder cattle settled at $97.80 a loss of $.10. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/11/09 was $95.01 a gain of $.18. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.15 a loss of $.07, April/June settled at $2.27 a loss of $.15, and June/August settled at -$.92 a loss of $.12.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 18,132 contracts trade in the pit and 10,412 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 398 contracts to come in this morning at 201,864. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 5,061 contracts trade in the pit and 1,344 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 329 contracts to come in this morning at 21,777.
Cattle futures were under pressure most of the session yesterday on continued concerns over the economy and the lower stock futures. Futures tested some support levels under the market early yesterday and held, which prompted a short covering rally going into the close. I probably wouldn’t expect to see much action today in the futures until more is known about this week’s cash trade of fed cattle. We will probably continue to follow the stock market. I think it will be important for Feb live cattle to hold $84 and April cattle to hold $87 by the close today in order to stave off further selling into next week. March feeders will need to hold above $94 today in order to keep from seeing a couple dollar break next week. Back month feeders continue to look positive closing above $100. There remain no deliveries against the Feb live cattle contract. Keep in mind we will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day, we will be on normal trading hours today though. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures today. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
February 12, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill yesterday with packer bids of $80-$81 live and $1.30 dressed going unmatched against feedlot offering prices of $86 live and $1.36-$1.37 dressed. We could begin to see a few cattle trade as early as today, however I would expect to see the bulk of business to wait until Friday. Packer margins have been suffering the last week or so and as such they are beginning to take hours out of weekly production schedules. The beef is still acting sluggish, although we have had good movement the last several sessions, showlists are mostly larger this week, and I wasn’t very impressed with how the board closed yesterday, so I don’t know high we can get fat cattle sold this week. They are likely going to try to press the futures lower today and tomorrow, which could break sellers resolve. Fed cattle selling in Sioux Falls, SD yesterday were trading lower with the beef fats bringing $78-$80 and the Holstein fats bringing $67-$72. Slaughter cows were lower yesterday as well with the bulk of the cutter and boning utility cows bringing $40-$46, and the breakers bringing $48-$52. Feeder cattle continue to trade mostly higher on all classes, however I did notice a few pockets of weakness on cattle weighing over 800 lbs. El Reno, OK had their weekly feeder sale yesterday with about 5,000 head of cattle on offer and a market they called mostly steady to $1 higher. In El Reno yesterday the 5 weight steer calves were bringing $104-$115, 6 weight steers were bringing $96-$107, 7 weight steers were bringing $94-$97, and the weight steers were bringing $87-$95.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 120,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below last week and 2,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 372,000 head, which would be 1,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was mixed yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $136.42 and the select cutout closing $.37 higher to settle at $135.20. Sales volume was good with 416 loads of beef sold (203.09 loads of choice fab cuts, 82.88 loads of select fab cuts, 42.05 loads of trim, 87.57 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $1.22 a loss of $1.10.
The beef market was a little sluggish again yesterday, as demand for most cuts of beef remains flat. Packers needed to discount clods, outside/gooseneck rounds, and PSMO’s. However, the lower price levels on these items did attract some extra business as we saw trading volumes pick up. Ground beef values were mostly steady yesterday and boneless beef items, both domestic and imported were trading lower. The exception was fed cattle 50’s where talk of packers cutting kills late this week and next supported that market. Continue to look for a steady to lower beef trade into early next week. Beef exports for the week of January 30-Februrary 5, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 9,300 MT were primarily for Mexico (2,300 MT), Vietnam (2,300 MT), Japan (1,900 MT), Canada (1,600 MT), the Netherlands (800 MT), and Hong Kong (600 MT). Decreases were reported for South Korea (900 MT). Exports of 7,900 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), South Korea (1,100 MT), Vietnam (800 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.52 a loss of $.25, April live cattle settled at $87.60 a loss of $.45, June live cattle settled at $85.17 a loss of $.22. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $95.40 a loss of $.30, April feeder cattle settled at $96.40 a loss of $.70, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.90 a loss of $.57. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/10/09 was $94.83 a gain of $.17. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.07 a gain of $.20, April/June settled at $2.42 a loss of $.22, June/August settled at -$.80 steady on the day. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.00 a gain of $.40, April/May settled at -$1.50 a loss of $.12, May/August settled at -$1.85 a gain of $.15.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 13,529 contracts trade in the pit and 8,650 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 539 contracts to come in this morning at 201,466. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 4,879 contracts trade in the pit and 1,538 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 735 contracts to come in this morning at 21,448.
The futures market settled under pressure yesterday on renewed spec selling and profit taking from the recent run up in prices. As I mentioned above, I wasn’t very impressed with yesterdays close in the cattle as we couldn’t get through overhead resistance and faded late. The market was probably getting a little over priced compared to where cash fed cattle are going to trade this week and with renewed selling in the equity markets the path of least resistance would seem to be lower. We can probably expect to see further selling in the cattle complex this morning as equity and outside commodity markets are all lower this morning. The market appears as though it could move back into near term weekly support at $82.50 in Feb live, $85.50 in April live and $92.50-$93 in March feeders. There remain no deliveries against the February live cattle contract. In a statement released by the Cooperatives Working Together program, members have voted to commit to funding a dairy herd retirement program over the course of two years that will eventually take 200,000-300,000 dairy cows out of production. Look for a $.20-$.40 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill yesterday with packer bids of $80-$81 live and $1.30 dressed going unmatched against feedlot offering prices of $86 live and $1.36-$1.37 dressed. We could begin to see a few cattle trade as early as today, however I would expect to see the bulk of business to wait until Friday. Packer margins have been suffering the last week or so and as such they are beginning to take hours out of weekly production schedules. The beef is still acting sluggish, although we have had good movement the last several sessions, showlists are mostly larger this week, and I wasn’t very impressed with how the board closed yesterday, so I don’t know high we can get fat cattle sold this week. They are likely going to try to press the futures lower today and tomorrow, which could break sellers resolve. Fed cattle selling in Sioux Falls, SD yesterday were trading lower with the beef fats bringing $78-$80 and the Holstein fats bringing $67-$72. Slaughter cows were lower yesterday as well with the bulk of the cutter and boning utility cows bringing $40-$46, and the breakers bringing $48-$52. Feeder cattle continue to trade mostly higher on all classes, however I did notice a few pockets of weakness on cattle weighing over 800 lbs. El Reno, OK had their weekly feeder sale yesterday with about 5,000 head of cattle on offer and a market they called mostly steady to $1 higher. In El Reno yesterday the 5 weight steer calves were bringing $104-$115, 6 weight steers were bringing $96-$107, 7 weight steers were bringing $94-$97, and the weight steers were bringing $87-$95.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 120,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below last week and 2,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 372,000 head, which would be 1,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was mixed yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $136.42 and the select cutout closing $.37 higher to settle at $135.20. Sales volume was good with 416 loads of beef sold (203.09 loads of choice fab cuts, 82.88 loads of select fab cuts, 42.05 loads of trim, 87.57 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $1.22 a loss of $1.10.
The beef market was a little sluggish again yesterday, as demand for most cuts of beef remains flat. Packers needed to discount clods, outside/gooseneck rounds, and PSMO’s. However, the lower price levels on these items did attract some extra business as we saw trading volumes pick up. Ground beef values were mostly steady yesterday and boneless beef items, both domestic and imported were trading lower. The exception was fed cattle 50’s where talk of packers cutting kills late this week and next supported that market. Continue to look for a steady to lower beef trade into early next week. Beef exports for the week of January 30-Februrary 5, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 9,300 MT were primarily for Mexico (2,300 MT), Vietnam (2,300 MT), Japan (1,900 MT), Canada (1,600 MT), the Netherlands (800 MT), and Hong Kong (600 MT). Decreases were reported for South Korea (900 MT). Exports of 7,900 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), South Korea (1,100 MT), Vietnam (800 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.52 a loss of $.25, April live cattle settled at $87.60 a loss of $.45, June live cattle settled at $85.17 a loss of $.22. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $95.40 a loss of $.30, April feeder cattle settled at $96.40 a loss of $.70, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.90 a loss of $.57. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/10/09 was $94.83 a gain of $.17. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.07 a gain of $.20, April/June settled at $2.42 a loss of $.22, June/August settled at -$.80 steady on the day. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.00 a gain of $.40, April/May settled at -$1.50 a loss of $.12, May/August settled at -$1.85 a gain of $.15.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 13,529 contracts trade in the pit and 8,650 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 539 contracts to come in this morning at 201,466. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 4,879 contracts trade in the pit and 1,538 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 735 contracts to come in this morning at 21,448.
The futures market settled under pressure yesterday on renewed spec selling and profit taking from the recent run up in prices. As I mentioned above, I wasn’t very impressed with yesterdays close in the cattle as we couldn’t get through overhead resistance and faded late. The market was probably getting a little over priced compared to where cash fed cattle are going to trade this week and with renewed selling in the equity markets the path of least resistance would seem to be lower. We can probably expect to see further selling in the cattle complex this morning as equity and outside commodity markets are all lower this morning. The market appears as though it could move back into near term weekly support at $82.50 in Feb live, $85.50 in April live and $92.50-$93 in March feeders. There remain no deliveries against the February live cattle contract. In a statement released by the Cooperatives Working Together program, members have voted to commit to funding a dairy herd retirement program over the course of two years that will eventually take 200,000-300,000 dairy cows out of production. Look for a $.20-$.40 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
February 11, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real bids evident as of late yesterday and cattle feeders priced at $86 live and $1.36-$1.37 dressed. A late week trade is expected at prices steady to higher with last week providing the futures board can hold onto its early week gains. Packers will be cutting kills late in the week, which could keep them less active in the market late in the week. Fed cattle selling through the Midwest auction markets yesterday were a little softer, as were slaughter cows. Feeder cattle remain firm with most auctions that I canvass across the country reporting $1-$3 higher markets.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 127,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above last week and 4,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.39 higher to settle at $137.15 and the select cutout closing $.54 higher to settle at $134.83. Sales volume was light with 236 loads of beef sold (108.44 loads of choice fab cuts, 70.72 loads of select fab cuts, 23.52 loads of trim, 33.70 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $2.32 a loss of $.15.
The beef market was modestly higher yesterday on some renewed buying in choice/select rib roasts, clods, inside/gooseneck rounds, strips, and top butts. The top butt was responsible for leading us higher yesterday as there is good demand from a few of the major restaurant chains in the country that are featuring sirloin steak meal deals for the next couple of weeks. For the most part the ground beef and boneless beef complexes looked steady. Look for sideways price action in the boxed beef complex into the end of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.77 a gain of $.07, April live cattle settled at $88.05 a gain of $.30, and the June live cattle settled at $85.40 a gain of $.47. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $95.70 a gain of $.15, April feeder cattle settled at $97.10 a loss of $.25, and the May feeder cattle settled at $98.47 a loss of $.05. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/9/09 was $94.66 a gain of $.53. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.27 a loss of $.22, April/June settled at $2.65 a loss of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.80 steady on the day. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.40 a gain of $.40, April/May settled at -$1.37 a loss of $.20, and the May/August settled at -$2.00 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 26,164 contracts trade in the pit and 21,188 trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 2,085 contracts to come in this morning at 202,092. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 5,021 contracts trade in the pit and 1,885 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 262 contracts to come in this morning at 22,160.
Live cattle futures settled with modest gains yesterday with feeder cattle closing with moderate losses despite the collapse in the stock market. Open interest went down 2,000 cars yesterday with half of the daily trading volume being executed on the screen, which would lead one to believe that some fund was covering shorts. The futures market continues to respect overhead resistance at $85 in Feb live cattle and $96 in March feeders. A close above these price levels would indicate higher markets into next week. Holding below this resistance keeps $82 in Feb live and $93 in March feeders in the cards. There were no deliveries against the Feb live cattle last night. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real bids evident as of late yesterday and cattle feeders priced at $86 live and $1.36-$1.37 dressed. A late week trade is expected at prices steady to higher with last week providing the futures board can hold onto its early week gains. Packers will be cutting kills late in the week, which could keep them less active in the market late in the week. Fed cattle selling through the Midwest auction markets yesterday were a little softer, as were slaughter cows. Feeder cattle remain firm with most auctions that I canvass across the country reporting $1-$3 higher markets.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 127,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above last week and 4,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.39 higher to settle at $137.15 and the select cutout closing $.54 higher to settle at $134.83. Sales volume was light with 236 loads of beef sold (108.44 loads of choice fab cuts, 70.72 loads of select fab cuts, 23.52 loads of trim, 33.70 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $2.32 a loss of $.15.
The beef market was modestly higher yesterday on some renewed buying in choice/select rib roasts, clods, inside/gooseneck rounds, strips, and top butts. The top butt was responsible for leading us higher yesterday as there is good demand from a few of the major restaurant chains in the country that are featuring sirloin steak meal deals for the next couple of weeks. For the most part the ground beef and boneless beef complexes looked steady. Look for sideways price action in the boxed beef complex into the end of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.77 a gain of $.07, April live cattle settled at $88.05 a gain of $.30, and the June live cattle settled at $85.40 a gain of $.47. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $95.70 a gain of $.15, April feeder cattle settled at $97.10 a loss of $.25, and the May feeder cattle settled at $98.47 a loss of $.05. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/9/09 was $94.66 a gain of $.53. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.27 a loss of $.22, April/June settled at $2.65 a loss of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.80 steady on the day. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.40 a gain of $.40, April/May settled at -$1.37 a loss of $.20, and the May/August settled at -$2.00 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 26,164 contracts trade in the pit and 21,188 trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 2,085 contracts to come in this morning at 202,092. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 5,021 contracts trade in the pit and 1,885 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 262 contracts to come in this morning at 22,160.
Live cattle futures settled with modest gains yesterday with feeder cattle closing with moderate losses despite the collapse in the stock market. Open interest went down 2,000 cars yesterday with half of the daily trading volume being executed on the screen, which would lead one to believe that some fund was covering shorts. The futures market continues to respect overhead resistance at $85 in Feb live cattle and $96 in March feeders. A close above these price levels would indicate higher markets into next week. Holding below this resistance keeps $82 in Feb live and $93 in March feeders in the cards. There were no deliveries against the Feb live cattle last night. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
February 10, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was quiet yesterday with showlist distribution the main feature of the day. A look at last weeks feedlot transactions shows Texas/OK/NM yards selling 35,525 head of fed cattle for $83, Kansas yards sold 37,656 head of fed cattle for $83/$1.31, Nebraska feedlots sold 60,135 head of fed cattle for $80-$82/$1.31, Colorado feedlots sold 8,213 head of fed cattle for $83/$1.31, and Iowa/MN feedlots sold 21,267 head of fed cattle for $80-$82/$1.29-$1.30. Showlist numbers coming into this week look smaller in the northern feeding states and larger in the south. Packers were not bidding on any cattle yesterday with most feedlots pricing cattle at $86/$1.36-$1.37. Fed cattle selling through the sale barns in the Midwest were a little lower yesterday with the fed beef steers bringing $77-$82.50 and the fed Holsteins brining $68-$75. Slaughter cows begin the week with a mixed tone, higher at some sales and lower at others, but the bulk of the cutter and boning utility cows across the country continue to bring $35-$45. Feeder cattle markets have some follow through strength from last week as we see Oklahoma City calling their market steady to $1 higher on an estimated run of 10,500 head. In OKC yesterday the 5 weight steers were bringing $103-$116, the 6 weights were bringing $96-$107, the 7 weights were bringing $92-$98, and the 8 weights were bringing $89-$97. The jury is still out on this weeks feedlot trade of fed cattle, however the board was implying that it will be steady to $1 higher. Keep in mind thought that the week is still young and futures can still fall apart by the end of the week, especially if the beef continues to move lower. Feeder cattle markets should continue to find support for most of the week and slaughter cows might move into a more steady market, especially if we see boneless markets stall out and we continue to see more milk cows come to kill.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was mixed yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.11 lower to settle at $136.76 and the select cutout closing $.33 higher to settle at $134.29. Sales volume was good for a Monday with 358 loads of beef sold (153.26 loads of choice fab cuts, 73.11 loads of select fab cuts, 56.17 loads of trim, 75.21 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $2.46 a loss of $.44.
The beef market turned mixed yesterday on increased sales volumes. Coarse ground beef prices and sharply lower peeled tenderloin prices were the culprits in lending to a lower choice cutout yesterday. Choice and select chuck rolls were also trading at reduced price levels yesterday adding pressure to cutout values. The only cuts trading at higher money were inside rounds and top butts. Interesting to note that choice PSMO’s printed a 10 year low yesterday with USDA’s wtd ave price of $589.66. Choice short loins were very near a 10 year low at $357.77. As mentioned though, the lower price levels attracted increased trading levels yesterday with each item trading right at 500,000 lbs, which are some of the highest load counts we have seen on these items since the first quarter of 2008. There were increased trading levels in chuck rolls and short ribs as well yesterday, with each of these cuts showing over 500,000 lbs of product trading. Some of this could be export booking’s. Look for the beef market to remain under pressure until late week, when we could begin to see some stabilization in prices.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.70 a gain of $1.05, April live cattle settled at $87.75 a gain of $1.05, and June live cattle settled at $84.92 a gain of $.85. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $95.55 a gain of $1.20, April feeder cattle settled at $97.35 a gain of $1.82, and the May feeder cattle settled at $98.52 a gain of $1.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/6/09 was $94.13 a gain of $.20. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.05 steady on the day, April/June settled at $2.82 a gain of $.20, June/August settled at -$.80 a gain of $.20. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.80 a loss of $.62, April/May settled at -$1.17 a gain of $.55, and May/August settled at -$1.97 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,147 contracts trade in the pit and 11,319 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 57 to come in this morning at 204,005. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 4,395 contracts trade in the pit and 1,245 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 198 contracts to come in this morning at 21,899.
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher yesterday on short covering and hedge lifting from last weeks late cash trade and some technical buying. There were no deliveries against the February live cattle contract last night. Yesterday was also the second day of the “Goldman Roll” of March feeder cattle long’s into April, with that spread losing $.62 on approximately 500-600 cars rolled. The USDA released new supply/demand data this morning. They lowered 2009 beef production 430 mil lbs, lowered 2009 pork production 55 mil lbs, and lowered 2009 poultry production 148 mil lbs. On the import/export side, USDA left beef imports alone and lowered exports by 40 mil, they lowered pork imports 40 mil and lowered exports 100 mil, and they left poultry imports unchanged and lowered exports 100 mil. The lowered revisions to the recent cattle inventory report were the main reasons for the lowered 09 beef production. We start out this morning right up against some weekly resistance numbers that I have at $85.25 in Feb live and $88.37 in April live. March feeders will have weekly resistance at $97.02. The above mentioned resistance levels will be a battleground today and closing above them would indicate a higher market into the end of the week. Holding below these resistance levels would indicate a move back to $82.50 in Feb live, $85.50 in April live, and $92.50 in March feeders. Look for a $.20-$.40 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was quiet yesterday with showlist distribution the main feature of the day. A look at last weeks feedlot transactions shows Texas/OK/NM yards selling 35,525 head of fed cattle for $83, Kansas yards sold 37,656 head of fed cattle for $83/$1.31, Nebraska feedlots sold 60,135 head of fed cattle for $80-$82/$1.31, Colorado feedlots sold 8,213 head of fed cattle for $83/$1.31, and Iowa/MN feedlots sold 21,267 head of fed cattle for $80-$82/$1.29-$1.30. Showlist numbers coming into this week look smaller in the northern feeding states and larger in the south. Packers were not bidding on any cattle yesterday with most feedlots pricing cattle at $86/$1.36-$1.37. Fed cattle selling through the sale barns in the Midwest were a little lower yesterday with the fed beef steers bringing $77-$82.50 and the fed Holsteins brining $68-$75. Slaughter cows begin the week with a mixed tone, higher at some sales and lower at others, but the bulk of the cutter and boning utility cows across the country continue to bring $35-$45. Feeder cattle markets have some follow through strength from last week as we see Oklahoma City calling their market steady to $1 higher on an estimated run of 10,500 head. In OKC yesterday the 5 weight steers were bringing $103-$116, the 6 weights were bringing $96-$107, the 7 weights were bringing $92-$98, and the 8 weights were bringing $89-$97. The jury is still out on this weeks feedlot trade of fed cattle, however the board was implying that it will be steady to $1 higher. Keep in mind thought that the week is still young and futures can still fall apart by the end of the week, especially if the beef continues to move lower. Feeder cattle markets should continue to find support for most of the week and slaughter cows might move into a more steady market, especially if we see boneless markets stall out and we continue to see more milk cows come to kill.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was mixed yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.11 lower to settle at $136.76 and the select cutout closing $.33 higher to settle at $134.29. Sales volume was good for a Monday with 358 loads of beef sold (153.26 loads of choice fab cuts, 73.11 loads of select fab cuts, 56.17 loads of trim, 75.21 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $2.46 a loss of $.44.
The beef market turned mixed yesterday on increased sales volumes. Coarse ground beef prices and sharply lower peeled tenderloin prices were the culprits in lending to a lower choice cutout yesterday. Choice and select chuck rolls were also trading at reduced price levels yesterday adding pressure to cutout values. The only cuts trading at higher money were inside rounds and top butts. Interesting to note that choice PSMO’s printed a 10 year low yesterday with USDA’s wtd ave price of $589.66. Choice short loins were very near a 10 year low at $357.77. As mentioned though, the lower price levels attracted increased trading levels yesterday with each item trading right at 500,000 lbs, which are some of the highest load counts we have seen on these items since the first quarter of 2008. There were increased trading levels in chuck rolls and short ribs as well yesterday, with each of these cuts showing over 500,000 lbs of product trading. Some of this could be export booking’s. Look for the beef market to remain under pressure until late week, when we could begin to see some stabilization in prices.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.70 a gain of $1.05, April live cattle settled at $87.75 a gain of $1.05, and June live cattle settled at $84.92 a gain of $.85. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $95.55 a gain of $1.20, April feeder cattle settled at $97.35 a gain of $1.82, and the May feeder cattle settled at $98.52 a gain of $1.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/6/09 was $94.13 a gain of $.20. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.05 steady on the day, April/June settled at $2.82 a gain of $.20, June/August settled at -$.80 a gain of $.20. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.80 a loss of $.62, April/May settled at -$1.17 a gain of $.55, and May/August settled at -$1.97 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,147 contracts trade in the pit and 11,319 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 57 to come in this morning at 204,005. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 4,395 contracts trade in the pit and 1,245 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 198 contracts to come in this morning at 21,899.
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher yesterday on short covering and hedge lifting from last weeks late cash trade and some technical buying. There were no deliveries against the February live cattle contract last night. Yesterday was also the second day of the “Goldman Roll” of March feeder cattle long’s into April, with that spread losing $.62 on approximately 500-600 cars rolled. The USDA released new supply/demand data this morning. They lowered 2009 beef production 430 mil lbs, lowered 2009 pork production 55 mil lbs, and lowered 2009 poultry production 148 mil lbs. On the import/export side, USDA left beef imports alone and lowered exports by 40 mil, they lowered pork imports 40 mil and lowered exports 100 mil, and they left poultry imports unchanged and lowered exports 100 mil. The lowered revisions to the recent cattle inventory report were the main reasons for the lowered 09 beef production. We start out this morning right up against some weekly resistance numbers that I have at $85.25 in Feb live and $88.37 in April live. March feeders will have weekly resistance at $97.02. The above mentioned resistance levels will be a battleground today and closing above them would indicate a higher market into the end of the week. Holding below these resistance levels would indicate a move back to $82.50 in Feb live, $85.50 in April live, and $92.50 in March feeders. Look for a $.20-$.40 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, February 9, 2009
February 9, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $1-$2 higher in the Nebraska and Iowa at $1.31-$1.32, mostly $1.31 on moderate movement. Cattle trading turned active in Colorado, Kansas, and Texas late Friday afternoon at mostly $83 live and $1.31 dressed, which would be $1 higher on what looks to be moderate movement. I will report on actual sales volumes tomorrow morning once everything is counted and reported to the USDA. For the week, feeder cattle markets were mostly $1-$4 higher, with the biggest gains being found in cattle weighing less than 600 lbs. Slaughter cow markets were mostly $1-$3 higher. Looking into this week, the fed cattle market will be dictated by market psychology and early week trading activity in the stock market and beef market. Feeder cattle markets will be supported early in the week as buyers look to secure inventory ahead of perceived shrinking supplies of replacement cattle. Slaughter cows should be steady to higher, although increased slaughter of dairy cows will be noted.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Last weeks cattle slaughter was estimated at 622,000 head, which would be 9,000 head smaller than the previous week and included a Friday kill of 120,000 and a Saturday kill of 11,000. For the week, choice beef values declined $4.92 and select beef values declined $4.34 on moderate demand and increased movement. Friday saw further losses in the beef complex with the choice cutout closing $1.98 lower to settle at $136.87 and the select cutout closing $1.38 lower to settle at $133.96. Sales volume on Friday was good with 375 loads of beef sold (150.46 loads of choice fab cuts, 99.39 loads of select fab cuts, 37.41 loads of trim, 88.15 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $2.92 a loss of $.60.
The beef market was under pressure all last week on over production and slackened demand due to winter doldrums and economic concerns. The biggest losers on the week were chuck and loin cuts as export demand and consumer demand for high priced steak cuts remains dull. Ground beef values also came under pressure last week as demand post Super Bowl weekend declined. The only bright spot in the beef carcass was choice rib cuts were we saw moderate price strength by the end of the week. Looking into this week, I would expect to see packers cut kills in an attempt to support beef prices. This could lend some support to the beef complex late in the week or early next week, however until then I would expect to see beef trade on the defensive for the first part of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
For the week, February live cattle gained $1.65 to settle at $83.65, April live cattle gained $1.60 to settle at $86.70, and June live cattle gained $1.62 to settle at $84.07. In the feeder cattle pit for the week, March feeder cattle gained $3.35 to settle at $94.35, April feeder cattle gained $3.20 to settle at $95.52, and the May feeder cattle gained $2.93 to settle at $97.25. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/5/09 was $93.93 a gain of $.44.
Fridays live cattle volume saw 20,963 contracts trade in the pit and 13,005 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 7,779 contracts to come in this morning at 203,305. Friday’s feeder cattle volume saw 4,140 contracts trade in the pit and 1,640 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 538 contracts to come in this morning at 21,705.
Live and feeder cattle ended the week with moderate gains, with most of the price strength coming early in the week in reaction to the friendly cattle inventory report. We pretty much traded sideways the rest of the week awaiting news on the cash trade, which as we can see came in higher. Looking into this week, I would imagine that we trade in tandem with the equity markets, which as of this writing, are trading modestly lower. Other factors affecting trade this week will be a pending announcement over a dairy herd buyout and first notice day for deliveries against the February live cattle. Support and resistance numbers I have for this week are as follows: Support Feb live, $81.35, April live, $84.47, March feeders, $90.92. Resistance Feb live, $85.25, April live, $88.37, March feeder cattle, $97.02. Look for a mixed open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $1-$2 higher in the Nebraska and Iowa at $1.31-$1.32, mostly $1.31 on moderate movement. Cattle trading turned active in Colorado, Kansas, and Texas late Friday afternoon at mostly $83 live and $1.31 dressed, which would be $1 higher on what looks to be moderate movement. I will report on actual sales volumes tomorrow morning once everything is counted and reported to the USDA. For the week, feeder cattle markets were mostly $1-$4 higher, with the biggest gains being found in cattle weighing less than 600 lbs. Slaughter cow markets were mostly $1-$3 higher. Looking into this week, the fed cattle market will be dictated by market psychology and early week trading activity in the stock market and beef market. Feeder cattle markets will be supported early in the week as buyers look to secure inventory ahead of perceived shrinking supplies of replacement cattle. Slaughter cows should be steady to higher, although increased slaughter of dairy cows will be noted.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Last weeks cattle slaughter was estimated at 622,000 head, which would be 9,000 head smaller than the previous week and included a Friday kill of 120,000 and a Saturday kill of 11,000. For the week, choice beef values declined $4.92 and select beef values declined $4.34 on moderate demand and increased movement. Friday saw further losses in the beef complex with the choice cutout closing $1.98 lower to settle at $136.87 and the select cutout closing $1.38 lower to settle at $133.96. Sales volume on Friday was good with 375 loads of beef sold (150.46 loads of choice fab cuts, 99.39 loads of select fab cuts, 37.41 loads of trim, 88.15 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $2.92 a loss of $.60.
The beef market was under pressure all last week on over production and slackened demand due to winter doldrums and economic concerns. The biggest losers on the week were chuck and loin cuts as export demand and consumer demand for high priced steak cuts remains dull. Ground beef values also came under pressure last week as demand post Super Bowl weekend declined. The only bright spot in the beef carcass was choice rib cuts were we saw moderate price strength by the end of the week. Looking into this week, I would expect to see packers cut kills in an attempt to support beef prices. This could lend some support to the beef complex late in the week or early next week, however until then I would expect to see beef trade on the defensive for the first part of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
For the week, February live cattle gained $1.65 to settle at $83.65, April live cattle gained $1.60 to settle at $86.70, and June live cattle gained $1.62 to settle at $84.07. In the feeder cattle pit for the week, March feeder cattle gained $3.35 to settle at $94.35, April feeder cattle gained $3.20 to settle at $95.52, and the May feeder cattle gained $2.93 to settle at $97.25. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/5/09 was $93.93 a gain of $.44.
Fridays live cattle volume saw 20,963 contracts trade in the pit and 13,005 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 7,779 contracts to come in this morning at 203,305. Friday’s feeder cattle volume saw 4,140 contracts trade in the pit and 1,640 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 538 contracts to come in this morning at 21,705.
Live and feeder cattle ended the week with moderate gains, with most of the price strength coming early in the week in reaction to the friendly cattle inventory report. We pretty much traded sideways the rest of the week awaiting news on the cash trade, which as we can see came in higher. Looking into this week, I would imagine that we trade in tandem with the equity markets, which as of this writing, are trading modestly lower. Other factors affecting trade this week will be a pending announcement over a dairy herd buyout and first notice day for deliveries against the February live cattle. Support and resistance numbers I have for this week are as follows: Support Feb live, $81.35, April live, $84.47, March feeders, $90.92. Resistance Feb live, $85.25, April live, $88.37, March feeder cattle, $97.02. Look for a mixed open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, February 6, 2009
February 6, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market became active in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa yesterday with close to 30,000 head of cattle changing hands at $1.31 dressed. The Omaha packers were reportedly paying $1.32 dressed on a limited basis on better grading cattle. Southern feedlots were continuing to resist $80 packer bids yesterday and offer their cattle at $84-$85. Both sides will undoubtedly have to give a little bit in order to get business done today, and as of now I would expect to see a fed cattle trade in Texas and Kansas that transpires around $82-$83. Looking into next week, packer margins will take a pretty good hit by the close of business today and as such I would expect them to get pretty serious about cutting kills. I don’t expect to see much out of the beef market early next week either, and we will need to see some sort of early week beef business to make the packing community to want to pay any kind of higher money for fat cattle. Going home for the weekend feeder cattle and slaughter cow markets are firm and will likely remain that way into the first part of next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The boxed beef market was lower yesterday as late week demand from the retail/wholesale sector remains dull. There were a few higher price transactions on choice ribeyes and top butts yesterday, however for the most part discounts were needed throughout the rib, chuck, round, and loin primals of the beef carcass. Ground beef demand after the Super Bowl weekend is also said to be waning, which weighs on course ground markets as well. About the only good thing that can be said about yesterdays beef trade was that trade volumes did pick up again on the lower market, indicating that buyers are willing to take on some extra inventory at the lower price levels. I will continue to look for a lower beef trade into the middle of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
The futures market opened under some pressure yesterday, however once news of the higher fed cattle trade in Nebraska hit Chicago we saw the market rally on hedge lifting and local short covering. I don’t expect to see a whole lot today as we have a higher fed trade priced in for Texas and Kansas and participants in the market will be looking out into next week to determine where that cash market should be priced. As mentioned above, packers will likely be tough to do business with next week and we are going to need to see something happen with the beef in order to keep any rally attempts alive. The stock market has opened sharply higher, which could add a level of support to live and feeder cattle trade today. Feb live cattle will continue to find support at $82 and resistance at $85 into early next week and a breach of either the support or resistance would likely indicate a couple dollar move in the direction of the breakout. Front month March feeders should have some support back at the $92.50 area, with the next formidable resistance being found at $96. Keep in mind today is option expiration for Feb live cattle and first notice day for Feb is Monday. Look for a mixed open $.10 higher to $.10 lower in live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market became active in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa yesterday with close to 30,000 head of cattle changing hands at $1.31 dressed. The Omaha packers were reportedly paying $1.32 dressed on a limited basis on better grading cattle. Southern feedlots were continuing to resist $80 packer bids yesterday and offer their cattle at $84-$85. Both sides will undoubtedly have to give a little bit in order to get business done today, and as of now I would expect to see a fed cattle trade in Texas and Kansas that transpires around $82-$83. Looking into next week, packer margins will take a pretty good hit by the close of business today and as such I would expect them to get pretty serious about cutting kills. I don’t expect to see much out of the beef market early next week either, and we will need to see some sort of early week beef business to make the packing community to want to pay any kind of higher money for fat cattle. Going home for the weekend feeder cattle and slaughter cow markets are firm and will likely remain that way into the first part of next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The boxed beef market was lower yesterday as late week demand from the retail/wholesale sector remains dull. There were a few higher price transactions on choice ribeyes and top butts yesterday, however for the most part discounts were needed throughout the rib, chuck, round, and loin primals of the beef carcass. Ground beef demand after the Super Bowl weekend is also said to be waning, which weighs on course ground markets as well. About the only good thing that can be said about yesterdays beef trade was that trade volumes did pick up again on the lower market, indicating that buyers are willing to take on some extra inventory at the lower price levels. I will continue to look for a lower beef trade into the middle of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
The futures market opened under some pressure yesterday, however once news of the higher fed cattle trade in Nebraska hit Chicago we saw the market rally on hedge lifting and local short covering. I don’t expect to see a whole lot today as we have a higher fed trade priced in for Texas and Kansas and participants in the market will be looking out into next week to determine where that cash market should be priced. As mentioned above, packers will likely be tough to do business with next week and we are going to need to see something happen with the beef in order to keep any rally attempts alive. The stock market has opened sharply higher, which could add a level of support to live and feeder cattle trade today. Feb live cattle will continue to find support at $82 and resistance at $85 into early next week and a breach of either the support or resistance would likely indicate a couple dollar move in the direction of the breakout. Front month March feeders should have some support back at the $92.50 area, with the next formidable resistance being found at $96. Keep in mind today is option expiration for Feb live cattle and first notice day for Feb is Monday. Look for a mixed open $.10 higher to $.10 lower in live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
February 5, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade was quiet yesterday as bids of $80/$1.29-$1.30 remain dollars apart from asking prices of $84-$85/$1.35. I wouldn’t expect to see much business transpire before Friday as packers have inventory around them into next week and of course they are losing margin daily as the beef market continues to erode, which will keep them less aggressive in this weeks price negotiations. We will have to see what happens, the board right now is implying a steady to higher fed trade for this week, however with the way it acted yesterday it feels like we may go and test downside support today or Friday. Fat cattle in Sioux Falls, SD yesterday were bringing mostly steady money on the beef cattle and $1-$2 higher on the Holsteins. The majority of the beef fats in Sioux Falls yesterday were bringing $79-$82 with the Holsteins bringing $70-$74. Slaughter cows continue to bring higher money across the country with cutters and boners bringing $40-$50 and the breakers bringing $49-$52. Feeder cattle auctions continue to turn higher transactions pretty much everywhere you look in the country. El Reno, OK had 7,000 head on offer yesterday with that market being called $1-$3 higher. In El Reno yesterday, the 7 weight steers brought mostly $92-$97 and the 8 weights brought mostly $88-$95.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 4,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 371,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 625,000 head production week. The beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.91 lower to settle at $140.21 and the select cutout closing $.47 lower to settle at $136.90. Sales volume was good with 420 loads of beef sold (162.75 loads of choice fab cuts, 144.87 loads of select fab cuts, 42.41 loads of trim, 70.14 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $3.30 a loss of $.44.
The beef market was lower yesterday on continued buyer resistance to current price levels. Peeled tenders and ground beef supplies are said to be outpacing current demand and as such these were the items that received the deepest discounts yesterday. With that said though, yesterday’s lower market did entice some to take on extra inventory of chuck rolls and top butt’s as evident by yesterdays increased load count of choice beef items. The beef market still feels heavy and we can expect to see lower prices into the first of next week. Beef exports for the week of January 23-29, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 6,700 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,300 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), South Korea (600 MT), the Netherlands (300 MT), and Taiwan (200 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,000 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), South Korea (1,100 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (800 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.17 a loss of $.35, April live cattle settled at $85.95 a loss of $.17, and the June live cattle settled at $83.67 a loss of $.07. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $93.42 steady on the day, April feeder cattle settled at $94.32 a loss of $.27, and the May feeder cattle settled at $96.42 a loss of $.02. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/3/09 was $93.32 a gain of $.12. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.77 a loss of $.17, April/June settled at $2.27 a loss of $.10, and June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$.90 a gain of $.27, April/May settled at -$2.10 a loss of $.25, May/August settled at -$2.27 a loss of $.25.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 12,500 contracts trade in the pit and 7,563 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 598 contracts to come in this morning at 207,843. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 1,811 contracts trade in the pit and 689 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 202 contracts to come in this morning at 20,765.
The futures market was very quiet yesterday as participants await fresh inputs regarding this weeks cash fed cattle trade. Monday’s rally in the market was a bullish reaction to the cattle inventory report and pricing in a steady to higher fed cattle trade for this week. Now, as we get towards the end of the week, the market has to justify whether or not the fed cattle market will be higher, and as such has started to drift lower. It looks like we will be lower on the open this morning, and the market feels heavy coming out of yesterday, so I wouldn’t doubt we trade lower and test some support under the market at $82 in Feb and $85 in April. March feeders should have a little support at $92 for today, and whether these support areas can hold, will be key in determining cash stability this week. Look for a $.20-$.40 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade was quiet yesterday as bids of $80/$1.29-$1.30 remain dollars apart from asking prices of $84-$85/$1.35. I wouldn’t expect to see much business transpire before Friday as packers have inventory around them into next week and of course they are losing margin daily as the beef market continues to erode, which will keep them less aggressive in this weeks price negotiations. We will have to see what happens, the board right now is implying a steady to higher fed trade for this week, however with the way it acted yesterday it feels like we may go and test downside support today or Friday. Fat cattle in Sioux Falls, SD yesterday were bringing mostly steady money on the beef cattle and $1-$2 higher on the Holsteins. The majority of the beef fats in Sioux Falls yesterday were bringing $79-$82 with the Holsteins bringing $70-$74. Slaughter cows continue to bring higher money across the country with cutters and boners bringing $40-$50 and the breakers bringing $49-$52. Feeder cattle auctions continue to turn higher transactions pretty much everywhere you look in the country. El Reno, OK had 7,000 head on offer yesterday with that market being called $1-$3 higher. In El Reno yesterday, the 7 weight steers brought mostly $92-$97 and the 8 weights brought mostly $88-$95.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 4,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 371,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 625,000 head production week. The beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.91 lower to settle at $140.21 and the select cutout closing $.47 lower to settle at $136.90. Sales volume was good with 420 loads of beef sold (162.75 loads of choice fab cuts, 144.87 loads of select fab cuts, 42.41 loads of trim, 70.14 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $3.30 a loss of $.44.
The beef market was lower yesterday on continued buyer resistance to current price levels. Peeled tenders and ground beef supplies are said to be outpacing current demand and as such these were the items that received the deepest discounts yesterday. With that said though, yesterday’s lower market did entice some to take on extra inventory of chuck rolls and top butt’s as evident by yesterdays increased load count of choice beef items. The beef market still feels heavy and we can expect to see lower prices into the first of next week. Beef exports for the week of January 23-29, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 6,700 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,300 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), South Korea (600 MT), the Netherlands (300 MT), and Taiwan (200 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,000 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), South Korea (1,100 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (800 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.17 a loss of $.35, April live cattle settled at $85.95 a loss of $.17, and the June live cattle settled at $83.67 a loss of $.07. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $93.42 steady on the day, April feeder cattle settled at $94.32 a loss of $.27, and the May feeder cattle settled at $96.42 a loss of $.02. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/3/09 was $93.32 a gain of $.12. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.77 a loss of $.17, April/June settled at $2.27 a loss of $.10, and June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$.90 a gain of $.27, April/May settled at -$2.10 a loss of $.25, May/August settled at -$2.27 a loss of $.25.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 12,500 contracts trade in the pit and 7,563 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 598 contracts to come in this morning at 207,843. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 1,811 contracts trade in the pit and 689 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 202 contracts to come in this morning at 20,765.
The futures market was very quiet yesterday as participants await fresh inputs regarding this weeks cash fed cattle trade. Monday’s rally in the market was a bullish reaction to the cattle inventory report and pricing in a steady to higher fed cattle trade for this week. Now, as we get towards the end of the week, the market has to justify whether or not the fed cattle market will be higher, and as such has started to drift lower. It looks like we will be lower on the open this morning, and the market feels heavy coming out of yesterday, so I wouldn’t doubt we trade lower and test some support under the market at $82 in Feb and $85 in April. March feeders should have a little support at $92 for today, and whether these support areas can hold, will be key in determining cash stability this week. Look for a $.20-$.40 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
February 4, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade went untested again yesterday with just a few token bids of $80 in the south going unmatched against feedlot offering prices of $85 live and $1.35 plus dressed. We likely won’t see any meaningful trade develop before late Thursday or Friday as packers are said to have some inventory around them. Beef values continue to erode, which is starting to weigh on margins, however a lower showlist offering this week and prospects for fed cattle numbers to get tighter by the end of the month should give cattle feeders a little bargaining power. A Feb futures board trading at $83.50 should also help provide a little support to the cash fed cattle market as well. I will still call for a steady to $1/$2 higher fed cattle trade for this week. The cash feeder cattle market continues to build on gains from Monday with most sales across the circuit like Huron, SD and La Junta, CO calling their markets mostly $1-$2 higher on both lightweight cattle weighing under 700 lbs and yearling types weighing over 700 lbs. There were some exceptions as we saw a big run of cattle in Phillip, SD yesterday with that market being called mostly $1-$3 lower. Overall though there seems to be better demand in the procurement of feeder cattle since last week and I would expect to see the market trend higher into next week. As we hit the midweek point slaughter cows are trading mostly $1-$3 higher pretty much everywhere in the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 124,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below last week and 3,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 249,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below the same period last week with the industry looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.41 lower to settle at $141.12 and the select cutout closing $.80 lower to settle at $137.37. Sales volume was light with 222 loads of beef sold (91.30 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.22 loads of select fab cuts, 7.67 loads of trim, 46.02 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $3.76 a gain of $.39.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts showing up in most primal areas of the beef carcass. Ground beef markets have now taken a significant downturn in the market and this adds to overall lower cutout values. Fed cattle 50% trim was also sharply lower yesterday on softening demand from the grinding sector. Many on the buy side continue to monitor consumer pulls at the retail level, or lack there of, and as such continue to procure beef on an as need basis. Look for a continued lower trend to the beef market into late this week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.52 a loss of $.37, April live cattle settled at $86.12 a loss of $.70, and June live cattle settled at $83.75 a loss of $.60. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $93.42 a loss of $.57, April feeder cattle settled at $94.60 a loss of $.72, and May feeder cattle settled at $96.45 a loss of $.55. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/2/09 was $93.20 a loss of $.15. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.60 a gain of $.32, April/June settled at $2.37 a loss of $.10, June/August settled at -$.87 a gain of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.17 a gain of $.15, April/May settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.17, May/August settled at -$2.02 a loss of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 17,225 contracts trade in the pit and 12,179 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 486 contracts to come in this morning at 207,224. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,504 contracts trade in the pit and 663 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 89 contracts to come in this morning at 20,976.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled lower on the day yesterday as profit taking from Monday’s rally and ideas the market was a little overpriced kept futures under pressure all day. Until we can see a better demand tone out of the beef market rallies in the futures market are likely to be capped for the balance of this week. With that said though, I don’t know how much we will break either, as I expect to see higher trend to the cash cattle markets develop in the coming weeks. I would expect futures to remain choppy for the balance of the week as we pretty much already have a higher cash fed cattle trade priced in for this week. Support for the balance of the week will continue to be found at $82 in Feb, $85 in April, and $92 in March feeders. We would need to see the market start closing back above $85 in Feb, $88 in April, and $95 in March feeders to negate some of the recent bearishness. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade went untested again yesterday with just a few token bids of $80 in the south going unmatched against feedlot offering prices of $85 live and $1.35 plus dressed. We likely won’t see any meaningful trade develop before late Thursday or Friday as packers are said to have some inventory around them. Beef values continue to erode, which is starting to weigh on margins, however a lower showlist offering this week and prospects for fed cattle numbers to get tighter by the end of the month should give cattle feeders a little bargaining power. A Feb futures board trading at $83.50 should also help provide a little support to the cash fed cattle market as well. I will still call for a steady to $1/$2 higher fed cattle trade for this week. The cash feeder cattle market continues to build on gains from Monday with most sales across the circuit like Huron, SD and La Junta, CO calling their markets mostly $1-$2 higher on both lightweight cattle weighing under 700 lbs and yearling types weighing over 700 lbs. There were some exceptions as we saw a big run of cattle in Phillip, SD yesterday with that market being called mostly $1-$3 lower. Overall though there seems to be better demand in the procurement of feeder cattle since last week and I would expect to see the market trend higher into next week. As we hit the midweek point slaughter cows are trading mostly $1-$3 higher pretty much everywhere in the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 124,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below last week and 3,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 249,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below the same period last week with the industry looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.41 lower to settle at $141.12 and the select cutout closing $.80 lower to settle at $137.37. Sales volume was light with 222 loads of beef sold (91.30 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.22 loads of select fab cuts, 7.67 loads of trim, 46.02 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $3.76 a gain of $.39.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts showing up in most primal areas of the beef carcass. Ground beef markets have now taken a significant downturn in the market and this adds to overall lower cutout values. Fed cattle 50% trim was also sharply lower yesterday on softening demand from the grinding sector. Many on the buy side continue to monitor consumer pulls at the retail level, or lack there of, and as such continue to procure beef on an as need basis. Look for a continued lower trend to the beef market into late this week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.52 a loss of $.37, April live cattle settled at $86.12 a loss of $.70, and June live cattle settled at $83.75 a loss of $.60. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $93.42 a loss of $.57, April feeder cattle settled at $94.60 a loss of $.72, and May feeder cattle settled at $96.45 a loss of $.55. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 2/2/09 was $93.20 a loss of $.15. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.60 a gain of $.32, April/June settled at $2.37 a loss of $.10, June/August settled at -$.87 a gain of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.17 a gain of $.15, April/May settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.17, May/August settled at -$2.02 a loss of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 17,225 contracts trade in the pit and 12,179 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 486 contracts to come in this morning at 207,224. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,504 contracts trade in the pit and 663 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 89 contracts to come in this morning at 20,976.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled lower on the day yesterday as profit taking from Monday’s rally and ideas the market was a little overpriced kept futures under pressure all day. Until we can see a better demand tone out of the beef market rallies in the futures market are likely to be capped for the balance of this week. With that said though, I don’t know how much we will break either, as I expect to see higher trend to the cash cattle markets develop in the coming weeks. I would expect futures to remain choppy for the balance of the week as we pretty much already have a higher cash fed cattle trade priced in for this week. Support for the balance of the week will continue to be found at $82 in Feb, $85 in April, and $92 in March feeders. We would need to see the market start closing back above $85 in Feb, $88 in April, and $95 in March feeders to negate some of the recent bearishness. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
February 3, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
February 3, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlots beginning the week pricing their cattle at $85 in the south and $1.35 plus dressed in the north. With last weeks decent feedlot movement (i.e. 37,000 head in TX, 36,000 head in KS, and 79,000 head in NE) showlists are coming in smaller in most trading areas. This along with recent strength on the board and the fact that Texas cattle feeders were able to hold their market steady last week should go a long way in stabilizing the cash market this week. While the beef was a little lower again yesterday I expect to see that market begin to find some support as well. I will call for a steady to $1-$2 higher fed cattle market for this week. Feeder cattle markets begin the week higher with Oklahoma City and Joplin, MO calling their markets $2 higher yesterday. With idea of higher fed cattle markets into the spring and dwindling feeder cattle supplies going forward, buyers stepped up procurement pricing yesterday and I would expect this to continue for most of the week. Slaughter cows continue to trade at higher money throughout much of the country.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 2,000 head below the same day a week ago and 6,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 625,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.30 lower to settle at $141.53 and the select cutout closing $.73 lower to settle at $138.17. Sales volume was good with 374 loads of beef sold (148.32 loads of choice fab cuts, 76.32 loads of select fab cuts, 83.17 loads of trim, 66.19 loads of grinds). The choice/select spreads settled at $3.36 a gain of $.43.
The beef market was lower yesterday; however given the recent declines in many beef items over the last couple of weeks, the declines have begun to moderate. Most all items throughout the beef carcass were lower yesterday with the main emphasis being put on loin items and ground beef items. With that said though, sellers of beef are optimistic that steady to higher pricing will return to the beef complex by late this week or early next week. I will look for the beef market to begin to find some support in the $1.40 area basis the choice cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.90 a gain of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a gain of $1.72, and June live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.90. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $94.00 a gain of $3.00, April feeder cattle settled at $95.32 a gain of $3.00, and May feeder cattle settled at $97.00 a gain of $2.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/30/09 was $93.35 a loss of $1.01. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.92 a gain of $.17, April/June settled at $2.47 a loss of $.17, June/August settled at -$.95 a loss of $.30. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.32 steady on the day, April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.32, May/August settled at -$1.85 a loss of $.10.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,419 contracts trade in the pit and 17,019 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 602 contracts to come in this morning at 207,786. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,586 contracts trade in the pit and 928 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 761 contracts to come in this morning at 21,076.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled sharply higher to limit up yesterday on short covering and commercial buying in reaction to the bullishly construed cattle inventory report. Here again the market is certainly supply friendly going forward and once we get some of these near term demand issues worked out, I think we can see a sizeable rally in both live and feeder cattle futures. Weekly support in the market should now hold at $82 in the Feb live and $85 in the April live. The futures will find some resistance late this week at $85.50 in Feb and $88.25 in the April. March feeders should have good support now at $92.50 and the next major resistance level will be found at $96.50. I would probably look for a slightly lower open today on profit taking with some strength coming back to the market into late week, when we could see a more pronounced round of profit taking into the weekend. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, February 2, 2009
February 2, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that finally traded in the Texas panhandle at $82 on approximately 20,000 head. For the week feeder cattle values were steady to $3 lower with the biggest declines noticed in cattle weighing over 700 lbs. Slaughter cows were mostly $1-$3 higher on reduced numbers coming to market in the west, although dairy cow slaughter is seen increasing in major dairy producing states. Looking into this week I would expect to see cash fed cattle and feeder cattle values begin to stabilize and I would expect to find further support in the slaughter cow market. We had a bullishly construed cattle inventory report on Friday afternoon. Some highlights of the report revealed all cattle and calves as of January 1, 2009 at 94.491 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99.3%), all cows and heifer 41.005 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99%), 2008 calf crop at 36.113 mil head or 98.2% of a year ago (99.3%) and cattle on feed 13.851 mil head was 93.4% of a year ago. Pre-report estimates for the report are in parenthesis and the report shows that cattle supplies going forward are going to get tight and once we see near term demand get straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in the cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The beef market was lower last week and we can expect to see more of the same again for the first half of this week. I expect to see some support come into the beef market as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area, give or take a couple of dollars. We did see trade volumes pick up a bit on the lower market, which leads me to believe that buyers are beginning to find value in certain items as the market works lower. This would especially be true in middle meat items. Look for a softer start to the beef market this week, with some support being found late in the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
Live cattle futures lost $.67/$.70 respectively in Feb and April with June and August losing $1.70 apiece last week. Feeder cattle futures lost $1.20-$1.70 across the board last week as well with technical selling and worries over near term cash and beef demand being the catalyst for the lower markets. This week, I think we can begin to stabilize the cash markets and we should get at least some what of a friendly reaction to the cattle inventory report. The Dow and the other outside commodity markets are all lower this morning, so we probably won’t open as high as we would like to see in the cattle futures this morning and I’m sure we will find people willing to sell a higher open despite what the inventory report said on Friday. As mentioned above, we will get the near term demand fundamentals of the market straightened out in another couple of weeks, at which time I think we can see a sizeable rally in cattle futures, so I would caution about getting too bearish at current price levels. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, with more strength and less sell pressure being found in the deferred contracts as opposed to the front months. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that finally traded in the Texas panhandle at $82 on approximately 20,000 head. For the week feeder cattle values were steady to $3 lower with the biggest declines noticed in cattle weighing over 700 lbs. Slaughter cows were mostly $1-$3 higher on reduced numbers coming to market in the west, although dairy cow slaughter is seen increasing in major dairy producing states. Looking into this week I would expect to see cash fed cattle and feeder cattle values begin to stabilize and I would expect to find further support in the slaughter cow market. We had a bullishly construed cattle inventory report on Friday afternoon. Some highlights of the report revealed all cattle and calves as of January 1, 2009 at 94.491 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99.3%), all cows and heifer 41.005 mil head or 98.4% of a year ago (99%), 2008 calf crop at 36.113 mil head or 98.2% of a year ago (99.3%) and cattle on feed 13.851 mil head was 93.4% of a year ago. Pre-report estimates for the report are in parenthesis and the report shows that cattle supplies going forward are going to get tight and once we see near term demand get straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in the cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The beef market was lower last week and we can expect to see more of the same again for the first half of this week. I expect to see some support come into the beef market as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area, give or take a couple of dollars. We did see trade volumes pick up a bit on the lower market, which leads me to believe that buyers are beginning to find value in certain items as the market works lower. This would especially be true in middle meat items. Look for a softer start to the beef market this week, with some support being found late in the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
Live cattle futures lost $.67/$.70 respectively in Feb and April with June and August losing $1.70 apiece last week. Feeder cattle futures lost $1.20-$1.70 across the board last week as well with technical selling and worries over near term cash and beef demand being the catalyst for the lower markets. This week, I think we can begin to stabilize the cash markets and we should get at least some what of a friendly reaction to the cattle inventory report. The Dow and the other outside commodity markets are all lower this morning, so we probably won’t open as high as we would like to see in the cattle futures this morning and I’m sure we will find people willing to sell a higher open despite what the inventory report said on Friday. As mentioned above, we will get the near term demand fundamentals of the market straightened out in another couple of weeks, at which time I think we can see a sizeable rally in cattle futures, so I would caution about getting too bearish at current price levels. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, with more strength and less sell pressure being found in the deferred contracts as opposed to the front months. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 30, 2009
January 30, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw continued feedlot movement of fed cattle in Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa yesterday with each state selling about 4,000-5,000 head apiece at mostly $80 live and $1.28-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots have yet to sell any cattle and with the way the board is acting it looks like it should be an $81 market down there by this afternoon. So far this week movement looks pretty good in all trading areas with Kansas selling 34,000 head, Nebraska selling 70,000 head, Colorado selling 15,000 head, and Iowa/MN selling 24,000 head. This will help in keeping front end numbers of fed cattle manageable in the coming weeks. Going home for the weekend feeder cattle markets remain under pressure by $1-$3. I would expect to see both the cash fed cattle and feeder cattle markets begin to stabilize at current price levels going into next week. Slaughter cow markets remain $1-$3 higher going into the end of the week on good packer demand and I will look for more of the same early next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below last week and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 497,000 head, which would be 7,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.46 lower to settle at $143.77 and the select cutout closing $1.20 lower to settle at $139.68. Sales volume was good with 340 loads of beef sold (205.17 loads of choice fab cuts, 80.44 loads of select fab cuts, 20.29 loads of trim, 34.09 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.09 a loss of $1.26.
The beef market was lower yesterday as packers offer product at sharply lower price levels to entice buyers back into the market. The strategy worked with many on the buy side willing to take on extra inventory of rib and loin items at the lower market values. Boneless beef items were about the only thing that was trading at higher money yesterday as there remains good demand for processing beef from the grinding sector and cow numbers are said to be getting tighter. I am going to look for beef values to begin finding support as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area by late next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.10 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $84.32 a loss of $.10, and the June live cattle settled at $82.02 a loss of $.27. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $90.62 a gain of $.05, April feeder cattle settled at $91.65 a loss of $.15, and the May feeder cattle settled at $93.55 a gain of $.10. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/28/09 was $94.70 a loss of $.17. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.22 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $2.30 a gain of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.60 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.02 a gain of $.20, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.20, and May/August settled at -$1.60 a gain of $.50.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 26,011 contracts trade in the pit and 9,996 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 23 contracts to come in this morning at 206,973. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,714 contracts trade in the pit and 1,322 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 322 contracts to come in this morning at 22,182.
Futures managed to come back and settle mixed to slightly lower yesterday after trading sharply lower early in the session and making new contract lows in February live cattle. January feeder cattle went off the board yesterday at $94.27 without much excitement. March feeders take over as lead contract month with a $4 discount to the CME index. We have this weeks cash fed and feeder cattle markets prices about right now the market will be positioning ahead of the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released at 2:00 pm. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves on Jan 1 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. Once again the report will show that the supply side of the market remains friendly going forward and once we get the near term demand situation straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in cattle futures and cash cattle values. If we are not at a bottom, we are getting very close, so if looking for long term trading strategies I think you want to be looking at the long side of the market. Look for a $.20-$.40 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw continued feedlot movement of fed cattle in Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa yesterday with each state selling about 4,000-5,000 head apiece at mostly $80 live and $1.28-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots have yet to sell any cattle and with the way the board is acting it looks like it should be an $81 market down there by this afternoon. So far this week movement looks pretty good in all trading areas with Kansas selling 34,000 head, Nebraska selling 70,000 head, Colorado selling 15,000 head, and Iowa/MN selling 24,000 head. This will help in keeping front end numbers of fed cattle manageable in the coming weeks. Going home for the weekend feeder cattle markets remain under pressure by $1-$3. I would expect to see both the cash fed cattle and feeder cattle markets begin to stabilize at current price levels going into next week. Slaughter cow markets remain $1-$3 higher going into the end of the week on good packer demand and I will look for more of the same early next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below last week and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 497,000 head, which would be 7,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.46 lower to settle at $143.77 and the select cutout closing $1.20 lower to settle at $139.68. Sales volume was good with 340 loads of beef sold (205.17 loads of choice fab cuts, 80.44 loads of select fab cuts, 20.29 loads of trim, 34.09 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.09 a loss of $1.26.
The beef market was lower yesterday as packers offer product at sharply lower price levels to entice buyers back into the market. The strategy worked with many on the buy side willing to take on extra inventory of rib and loin items at the lower market values. Boneless beef items were about the only thing that was trading at higher money yesterday as there remains good demand for processing beef from the grinding sector and cow numbers are said to be getting tighter. I am going to look for beef values to begin finding support as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area by late next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.10 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $84.32 a loss of $.10, and the June live cattle settled at $82.02 a loss of $.27. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $90.62 a gain of $.05, April feeder cattle settled at $91.65 a loss of $.15, and the May feeder cattle settled at $93.55 a gain of $.10. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/28/09 was $94.70 a loss of $.17. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.22 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $2.30 a gain of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.60 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.02 a gain of $.20, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.20, and May/August settled at -$1.60 a gain of $.50.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 26,011 contracts trade in the pit and 9,996 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 23 contracts to come in this morning at 206,973. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,714 contracts trade in the pit and 1,322 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 322 contracts to come in this morning at 22,182.
Futures managed to come back and settle mixed to slightly lower yesterday after trading sharply lower early in the session and making new contract lows in February live cattle. January feeder cattle went off the board yesterday at $94.27 without much excitement. March feeders take over as lead contract month with a $4 discount to the CME index. We have this weeks cash fed and feeder cattle markets prices about right now the market will be positioning ahead of the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released at 2:00 pm. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves on Jan 1 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. Once again the report will show that the supply side of the market remains friendly going forward and once we get the near term demand situation straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in cattle futures and cash cattle values. If we are not at a bottom, we are getting very close, so if looking for long term trading strategies I think you want to be looking at the long side of the market. Look for a $.20-$.40 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
January 29, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw further trading in the cash feedlot market yesterday with prices drifting another $1-$2 lower from Tuesday’s trade. Kansas feedlots started trading cattle yesterday at $80-$80.50 on about 8,000 head. Nebraska feedlots saw further trade at $80-$80.50 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed on about 25,000 head, with Iowa and Colorado each selling about 5,000 head of cattle at $80 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots did not sell any cattle yesterday opting to hold out for higher money. This will likely turn out to be a futile attempt and I would look for a steady to $1 lower market in that part of the country by the end of the week. Feeder cattle sales remain under pressure going into the weekend as weakness in the fed cattle market and a few more receipts around keep pressure on that market. Slaughter cows are higher coming into the end of the week and I would continue to look for support in that market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same day a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 374,000 head, which would be 10,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.18 lower to settle at $146.23 and the select cutout closing $1.66 lower to settle at $140.88. Sales volume was good with 349 loads of beef sold (145.98 loads of choice fab cuts, 97.13 loads of select fab cuts, 20.84 loads of trim, 84.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $5.35 a gain of $.48.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts now surfacing throughout the entire beef carcass. Weekly production running 10,000 head above last week and steady at best demand for beef are reasons for the lower market. Lower money was also beginning to show up in the ground beef market. The beef market will likely continue to drift into the lower $1.40’s basis the choice cutout into the first couple of weeks of February. Exports for the week of January 16-22, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,800 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,800 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.17 a loss of $.10, April live cattle settled at $84.42 a gain of $.02, and the June live cattle settled at $82.30 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.20 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $90.57 a gain of $.30, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.80 a gain of $.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/27/09 was $94.87 a loss of $.08. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $2.12 a gain of $.02, and June/August settled at -$.32 a gain of $.42. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.62 a loss of $.20, March/April settled at -$1.22 a gain of $.02, and April/May settled at -$1.70 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 19,300 contracts trade in the pit and 11,245 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 328 contracts to come in this morning at 207,060. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,329 contracts trade in the pit and 953 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 473 contracts to come in this morning at 21,860.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled mixed yesterday with some moderate strength being found in feeder cattle by the close. Lower cash markets and idea cash cattle might be lower again next week were reasons live cattle couldn’t rally much yesterday. Spec selling and some new hedge selling were also showing up in the market yesterday. February live cattle futures are making new contract lows on the overnight Globex trade, which along with lower stock futures will certainly keep some pressure on the market today as well. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week so now the market will await the cash fed cattle trade in Texas and begin positioning for the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released tomorrow afternoon after the close. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows/heifers 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. The report again will show the supply friendliness of the market going forward into 2010/2011. Look for a lower trade in the cattle futures today and new contract lows in February live. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw further trading in the cash feedlot market yesterday with prices drifting another $1-$2 lower from Tuesday’s trade. Kansas feedlots started trading cattle yesterday at $80-$80.50 on about 8,000 head. Nebraska feedlots saw further trade at $80-$80.50 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed on about 25,000 head, with Iowa and Colorado each selling about 5,000 head of cattle at $80 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots did not sell any cattle yesterday opting to hold out for higher money. This will likely turn out to be a futile attempt and I would look for a steady to $1 lower market in that part of the country by the end of the week. Feeder cattle sales remain under pressure going into the weekend as weakness in the fed cattle market and a few more receipts around keep pressure on that market. Slaughter cows are higher coming into the end of the week and I would continue to look for support in that market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same day a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 374,000 head, which would be 10,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.18 lower to settle at $146.23 and the select cutout closing $1.66 lower to settle at $140.88. Sales volume was good with 349 loads of beef sold (145.98 loads of choice fab cuts, 97.13 loads of select fab cuts, 20.84 loads of trim, 84.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $5.35 a gain of $.48.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts now surfacing throughout the entire beef carcass. Weekly production running 10,000 head above last week and steady at best demand for beef are reasons for the lower market. Lower money was also beginning to show up in the ground beef market. The beef market will likely continue to drift into the lower $1.40’s basis the choice cutout into the first couple of weeks of February. Exports for the week of January 16-22, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,800 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,800 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.17 a loss of $.10, April live cattle settled at $84.42 a gain of $.02, and the June live cattle settled at $82.30 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.20 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $90.57 a gain of $.30, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.80 a gain of $.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/27/09 was $94.87 a loss of $.08. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $2.12 a gain of $.02, and June/August settled at -$.32 a gain of $.42. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.62 a loss of $.20, March/April settled at -$1.22 a gain of $.02, and April/May settled at -$1.70 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 19,300 contracts trade in the pit and 11,245 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 328 contracts to come in this morning at 207,060. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,329 contracts trade in the pit and 953 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 473 contracts to come in this morning at 21,860.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled mixed yesterday with some moderate strength being found in feeder cattle by the close. Lower cash markets and idea cash cattle might be lower again next week were reasons live cattle couldn’t rally much yesterday. Spec selling and some new hedge selling were also showing up in the market yesterday. February live cattle futures are making new contract lows on the overnight Globex trade, which along with lower stock futures will certainly keep some pressure on the market today as well. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week so now the market will await the cash fed cattle trade in Texas and begin positioning for the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released tomorrow afternoon after the close. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows/heifers 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. The report again will show the supply friendliness of the market going forward into 2010/2011. Look for a lower trade in the cattle futures today and new contract lows in February live. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
January 28, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light fed cattle trade develop in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late yesterday afternoon at $1-$2 lower money. Approximately 5,000-10,000 head of cattle changed hands at mostly $81 live and $1.30-$1.31 dressed yesterday afternoon in the north on fears the market was going to get worse before it gets better. Most other feedlots in the north and in the south were resisting the lower packer bids opting to see if the board can rebound any by the end of the week before negotiating prices on this week’s showlists. If we can get a rally in the futures by Friday, which could happen given oversold conditions and strength in the stock market, perhaps the rest of cattle feeding country can hold the market steady with last week. Feeder cattle markets remain under pressure with most auction markets across the country calling their markets $1-$3 lower. This will likely be the case for the next week or two until we begin to see feeder cattle numbers coming to market subside a little and we stabilize the fed cattle market. There remains a pretty good call for slaughter cows with most salebarns reporting $1-2 higher.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 11,000 head above the same period with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.72 lower to settle at $147.41 and the select cutout closing $1.01 lower to settle at $142.54. Sales volume was light with 228 loads of beef sold (97.96 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.35 loads of select fab cuts, 18.46 loads of trim, 34.55 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.87 a gain of $.29.
The beef market was lower again yesterday as slaughter levels running 11,000 head above last week at this time are being met with steady to weaker buyer demand. Most items throughout the major primal areas of the beef carcass were either trading at steady to lower price levels yesterday, with the exception of a few select middle meat items. Ground beef still had a steady call as did lean boneless beef during yesterdays trading session. With the increased fed cattle production the first part of this week, 50% fed cattle trim was starting to come under pressure yesterday. I will continue to look for boxed beef markets to drift lower into next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.27 a loss of $1.07, April live cattle settled at $84.40 a loss of $1.20, and June live cattle settled at $82.30 a loss of $1.52. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.10 a gain of $.35, March feeder cattle settled at $90.27 a loss of $1.45, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.52 a loss of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/26/09 was $94.95 a loss of $.19. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $2.10 a gain of $.32, and June/August settled at -$.75 a loss of $.15. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.82 a gain of $1.80, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.37, and April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,188 contracts trade in the pit and 10,494 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 321 contracts to come in this morning at 206,740. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,957 contracts trade in the pit and 1,119 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 382 contracts to come in this morning at 21,379.
Cattle futures were under pressure for most of the session yesterday as ideas of lower cash cattle and beef values along with formidable spec selling kept the market under wraps all day. It certainly appears as though the futures market wants to go and test old contract lows and perhaps make new lows in Feb and April live despite the recent strength we are seeing in the equity markets. We have now priced in a lower fed cattle trade for this week along with lower cash feeder markets, which could mean that we could see a reprieve in selling for today and tomorrow. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in the Dow this morning, which I think will translate into a higher open and perhaps a small rally in cattle futures this morning. If you are selling cash fed cattle down here you need to be looking for a spot to buy them back on paper. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light fed cattle trade develop in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late yesterday afternoon at $1-$2 lower money. Approximately 5,000-10,000 head of cattle changed hands at mostly $81 live and $1.30-$1.31 dressed yesterday afternoon in the north on fears the market was going to get worse before it gets better. Most other feedlots in the north and in the south were resisting the lower packer bids opting to see if the board can rebound any by the end of the week before negotiating prices on this week’s showlists. If we can get a rally in the futures by Friday, which could happen given oversold conditions and strength in the stock market, perhaps the rest of cattle feeding country can hold the market steady with last week. Feeder cattle markets remain under pressure with most auction markets across the country calling their markets $1-$3 lower. This will likely be the case for the next week or two until we begin to see feeder cattle numbers coming to market subside a little and we stabilize the fed cattle market. There remains a pretty good call for slaughter cows with most salebarns reporting $1-2 higher.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 11,000 head above the same period with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.72 lower to settle at $147.41 and the select cutout closing $1.01 lower to settle at $142.54. Sales volume was light with 228 loads of beef sold (97.96 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.35 loads of select fab cuts, 18.46 loads of trim, 34.55 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.87 a gain of $.29.
The beef market was lower again yesterday as slaughter levels running 11,000 head above last week at this time are being met with steady to weaker buyer demand. Most items throughout the major primal areas of the beef carcass were either trading at steady to lower price levels yesterday, with the exception of a few select middle meat items. Ground beef still had a steady call as did lean boneless beef during yesterdays trading session. With the increased fed cattle production the first part of this week, 50% fed cattle trim was starting to come under pressure yesterday. I will continue to look for boxed beef markets to drift lower into next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.27 a loss of $1.07, April live cattle settled at $84.40 a loss of $1.20, and June live cattle settled at $82.30 a loss of $1.52. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.10 a gain of $.35, March feeder cattle settled at $90.27 a loss of $1.45, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.52 a loss of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/26/09 was $94.95 a loss of $.19. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $2.10 a gain of $.32, and June/August settled at -$.75 a loss of $.15. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.82 a gain of $1.80, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.37, and April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,188 contracts trade in the pit and 10,494 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 321 contracts to come in this morning at 206,740. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,957 contracts trade in the pit and 1,119 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 382 contracts to come in this morning at 21,379.
Cattle futures were under pressure for most of the session yesterday as ideas of lower cash cattle and beef values along with formidable spec selling kept the market under wraps all day. It certainly appears as though the futures market wants to go and test old contract lows and perhaps make new lows in Feb and April live despite the recent strength we are seeing in the equity markets. We have now priced in a lower fed cattle trade for this week along with lower cash feeder markets, which could mean that we could see a reprieve in selling for today and tomorrow. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in the Dow this morning, which I think will translate into a higher open and perhaps a small rally in cattle futures this morning. If you are selling cash fed cattle down here you need to be looking for a spot to buy them back on paper. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
January 27, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market went largely untested with no real packer bids to speak of and feedlots beginning the week offering cattle at $85-$86 live and $1.35-$1.37 dressed. Last weeks feedlot movement looks like this, Texas/OK/NM yards sold 43,796 head of fed cattle, Kansas yards sold 41,860 head of fed cattle, and Nebraska yards sold 75,446 head of fed cattle all for mostly $82 live and $1.32 dressed. Movement looked to be decent given the number of cattle for sale last week, which is leading to a modestly smaller offering of cattle in the south this week with larger numbers for sale in Nebraska. Fed cattle selling through the nations salebarns begin the week trading at lower money in sympathy with last weeks feedlot sales. Feeder cattle look softer to begin the week as well with Oklahoma City calling their market steady to $3 lower. I will look for this weeks fed cattle trade to be softer early and firming late.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 124,000 head, which would be 8,000 head below the same day a week ago and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will look for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.18 lower to settle at $148.13 and the select cutout closing $.32 lower to settle at $143.55. Sales volume was light with 210 loads of beef sold (105.66 loads of choice fab cuts, 56.16 loads of select fab cuts, 17.83 loads of trim, 30.45 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.58 a gain of $.14.
The beef market was under pressure again yesterday with discounts once again surfacing in the rib, round, and loin complexes. The ground beef market was mostly steady yesterday, however sources cited demand was beginning to back off a bit. Packers have pretty decent margins right now and will want to be killing extra cattle to take advantage of it. This is going to put extra product on the market for the balance of this week and into the first of next, which inevitably will weigh on cutout values. Continue to look for a lower beef trade.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.32, April live cattle settled at $85.60 a loss of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $83.82 a loss of $.35. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.75 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $91.72 a loss of $1.02, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.60 a loss of $.92. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/23/09 was $95.14 a loss of $.20. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.77 a gain of $.15, June/August settled at -$.60 a gain of $.10. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $2.02 a gain of $1.12, March/April settled at -$.87 a loss of $.10, April/May settled at -$1.90 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,134 contracts trade in the pit and 5,533 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 1,793 contracts to come in this morning at 207,062. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,182 contracts trade in the pit and 601 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 264 contracts to come in this morning at 20,991.
The futures market opened higher yesterday in reaction to the friendly cattle on feed report, however spec and hedge selling surfaced shortly after the open to cap the early rally attempt. The cattle on feed report indicated that the market has very supply friendly fundamentals going forward, however worries over near term demand are an overriding factor right now and this keeps rallies in the market at bay. We will continue to look for support in the market at contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb and $82.45 in the April. The market sure seems like it want to go and test those old lows and we will have to see if they hold or not. My opinion is that if they don’t hold we could get one more quick break before rallying into spring. Feeders should be able to hold the $89-$90 area on any further weakness. We will need to see Feb cattle start closing back above the $83 area in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market went largely untested with no real packer bids to speak of and feedlots beginning the week offering cattle at $85-$86 live and $1.35-$1.37 dressed. Last weeks feedlot movement looks like this, Texas/OK/NM yards sold 43,796 head of fed cattle, Kansas yards sold 41,860 head of fed cattle, and Nebraska yards sold 75,446 head of fed cattle all for mostly $82 live and $1.32 dressed. Movement looked to be decent given the number of cattle for sale last week, which is leading to a modestly smaller offering of cattle in the south this week with larger numbers for sale in Nebraska. Fed cattle selling through the nations salebarns begin the week trading at lower money in sympathy with last weeks feedlot sales. Feeder cattle look softer to begin the week as well with Oklahoma City calling their market steady to $3 lower. I will look for this weeks fed cattle trade to be softer early and firming late.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 124,000 head, which would be 8,000 head below the same day a week ago and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will look for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.18 lower to settle at $148.13 and the select cutout closing $.32 lower to settle at $143.55. Sales volume was light with 210 loads of beef sold (105.66 loads of choice fab cuts, 56.16 loads of select fab cuts, 17.83 loads of trim, 30.45 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.58 a gain of $.14.
The beef market was under pressure again yesterday with discounts once again surfacing in the rib, round, and loin complexes. The ground beef market was mostly steady yesterday, however sources cited demand was beginning to back off a bit. Packers have pretty decent margins right now and will want to be killing extra cattle to take advantage of it. This is going to put extra product on the market for the balance of this week and into the first of next, which inevitably will weigh on cutout values. Continue to look for a lower beef trade.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.32, April live cattle settled at $85.60 a loss of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $83.82 a loss of $.35. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.75 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $91.72 a loss of $1.02, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.60 a loss of $.92. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/23/09 was $95.14 a loss of $.20. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.77 a gain of $.15, June/August settled at -$.60 a gain of $.10. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $2.02 a gain of $1.12, March/April settled at -$.87 a loss of $.10, April/May settled at -$1.90 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,134 contracts trade in the pit and 5,533 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 1,793 contracts to come in this morning at 207,062. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,182 contracts trade in the pit and 601 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 264 contracts to come in this morning at 20,991.
The futures market opened higher yesterday in reaction to the friendly cattle on feed report, however spec and hedge selling surfaced shortly after the open to cap the early rally attempt. The cattle on feed report indicated that the market has very supply friendly fundamentals going forward, however worries over near term demand are an overriding factor right now and this keeps rallies in the market at bay. We will continue to look for support in the market at contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb and $82.45 in the April. The market sure seems like it want to go and test those old lows and we will have to see if they hold or not. My opinion is that if they don’t hold we could get one more quick break before rallying into spring. Feeders should be able to hold the $89-$90 area on any further weakness. We will need to see Feb cattle start closing back above the $83 area in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, January 26, 2009
January 26, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $2-$4 lower at $82 live and $1.32 dressed. For the week feeder cattle values were off by $2-$4 and slaughter cows were mostly $1-$2 higher. The USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report on Friday, with on feed Jan 1 at 11.234 mil head or 92.9% (93.9% pre-report), placed during December 1.647 mil head or 96.8% (100.1% pre-report), and marketed during December at 1.683 mil head or 102.3% (99.3% pre-report). The report will be considered friendly at the placement numbers came in below expectations and the marketing number came in above pre-report estimates. The overall on feed number will continue to be supply friendly into spring/early summer marketing timeframes and continues to show feedlots remain current on marketing’s. Placements of cattle continue to run below year ago levels on cattle weighing less than 700 lbs. This week’s cash fed cattle market should be steady to $1 higher, feeder cattle values will likely remain under pressure for the first part of the week, and I would look for continued support in the slaughter cow market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The boxed beef market lost $1 on the choice product and the select cutout held mostly steady according to the USDA on moderate movement. Retail and wholesale interest for boxed beef began to wane early last week as many buyers filled their most immediate needs and moved to the sidelines looking for improved consumer demand and bargains in the beef complex. Discounts were noted throughout the entire beef carcass last week, with the exception of select rib items and ground beef. I would look for more of the same early this week in the beef market and I will still target the $1.43-$1.45 on the choice cutout and $1.39-$1.40 area on the select cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
The futures market was choppy and volatile all of last week as the market anticipated a lower cash fed and feeder cattle market. The futures market was also very sensitive to the wild gyrations in the stock market. This week we should open a little higher on the friendly cattle on feed report and the possibility of a higher cash fed cattle market. The market will once again be on pins and needles in terms of what the stock market does early this week and I’m sure we will find people who will want to sell a higher open. However, I still think we will get our near term fed cattle supplies cleaned up in a couple of weeks and I expect to see improved beef demand by mid-February, both domestic and international. It’s not to say that we can’t see the stock market go and test old lows at 7500 basis the Dow, which would inevitably push fed cattle futures down into new lows, but if such a scenario were to develop I don’t think it would last very long and I still think higher prices are in the cards by March/April. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $2-$4 lower at $82 live and $1.32 dressed. For the week feeder cattle values were off by $2-$4 and slaughter cows were mostly $1-$2 higher. The USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report on Friday, with on feed Jan 1 at 11.234 mil head or 92.9% (93.9% pre-report), placed during December 1.647 mil head or 96.8% (100.1% pre-report), and marketed during December at 1.683 mil head or 102.3% (99.3% pre-report). The report will be considered friendly at the placement numbers came in below expectations and the marketing number came in above pre-report estimates. The overall on feed number will continue to be supply friendly into spring/early summer marketing timeframes and continues to show feedlots remain current on marketing’s. Placements of cattle continue to run below year ago levels on cattle weighing less than 700 lbs. This week’s cash fed cattle market should be steady to $1 higher, feeder cattle values will likely remain under pressure for the first part of the week, and I would look for continued support in the slaughter cow market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The boxed beef market lost $1 on the choice product and the select cutout held mostly steady according to the USDA on moderate movement. Retail and wholesale interest for boxed beef began to wane early last week as many buyers filled their most immediate needs and moved to the sidelines looking for improved consumer demand and bargains in the beef complex. Discounts were noted throughout the entire beef carcass last week, with the exception of select rib items and ground beef. I would look for more of the same early this week in the beef market and I will still target the $1.43-$1.45 on the choice cutout and $1.39-$1.40 area on the select cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
The futures market was choppy and volatile all of last week as the market anticipated a lower cash fed and feeder cattle market. The futures market was also very sensitive to the wild gyrations in the stock market. This week we should open a little higher on the friendly cattle on feed report and the possibility of a higher cash fed cattle market. The market will once again be on pins and needles in terms of what the stock market does early this week and I’m sure we will find people who will want to sell a higher open. However, I still think we will get our near term fed cattle supplies cleaned up in a couple of weeks and I expect to see improved beef demand by mid-February, both domestic and international. It’s not to say that we can’t see the stock market go and test old lows at 7500 basis the Dow, which would inevitably push fed cattle futures down into new lows, but if such a scenario were to develop I don’t think it would last very long and I still think higher prices are in the cards by March/April. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 23, 2009
January 23, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned active yesterday in southern plains feedlots at prices generally $2 lower than the week before. Texas/OK/NM feedlots sold 18,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live and Kansas feedlots sold 28,200 head of fed cattle for $82 live. There was also trade that took place in the north with prices mostly steady with Wednesday as we see Nebraska feedlots selling 26,300 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed, Colorado selling 1,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live, and Iowa/MN feedlots selling 7,700 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed. The northern trade of fed cattle should be about wrapped up for the week and any cleanup trade that occurs today should take place at steady money with yesterday. The south could probably use to sell a few more cattle and here too, any trade that does develop should take place at steady money with the bulk of yesterday’s trade. A few plants in the north are said to be booked up with cattle into the end of next week and first half of the following week. Southern packers remain rather close to the knife in terms of inventory and this might take some leverage away from them in next weeks price negotiations. I am going to look for a steady to higher fed cattle trade for next week. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cow markets remain firm and given the level of demand for ground beef, lack of near term beef imports, and tightening of cow numbers in the west I will call for a steady to firm cow market early next week. Feeder cattle markets remain a under pressure going into the weekend as lower fed cattle markets, both futures and cash, keeps buyers looking to procure inventory at lower money. Feeder cattle runs should start to tighten up a bit towards the end of the month, which I think with an increase in fed cattle prices should support feeder cattle values in the lower $90’s basis the CME index.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be 1,000 head above the same day last week and 1,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 490,000 head, which would be 8,000 head above the same period a week ago, with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $2.10 lower to settle at $149.65 and the select cutout closing $.98 lower to settle at $143.54. Sales volume was good with 301 loads of beef sold (127.22 loads of choice fab cuts, 110.19 loads of select fab cuts, 22.58 loads of trim, 41.22 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $6.12 a loss of $1.12.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with price discounts showing up in most all primal areas of the beef carcass as packer margins are attractive and they ramp up production to take advantage of the situation. This has put a larger mix of beef cuts on the market that buyers are only willing to absorb now that they have comfortable inventory positions. Ground beef remains firm from most points of sale and higher prices in that complex along with higher prices in the boneless grinding beef complex should prevail into next week. I will continue to look for choice cutout values to drift into the $1.45 area and select cutout values to drift into the $1.40 area by the first of February. Export sales for the week of January 9-15, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,500 MT were primarily for Mexico (2,000 MT), Japan (1,800 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Exports of 8,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), Vietnam (1,400 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.27 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $85.40 a gain of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $84.17 a gain of $.07. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.47 a gain of $.60, March feeder cattle settled at $92.30 a gain of $.95, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.40 a gain of $.60. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/21/09 was $95.52 a loss of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a loss of $.27, April/June settled at $1.22 a gain of $.12, and June/August settled at -$.77 a loss of $.05. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.17 a loss of $.35, March/April settled at -$1.10 a gain of $.35, April/May settled at -$2.05 a loss of $.15.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,962 contracts trade in the pit and 10,406 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 131 contracts to come in this morning at 205,233. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,443 contracts trade in the pit and 762 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 200 contracts to come in this morning at 21,068.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on hedge lifting, short covering, and a late rally in the Dow. We did nothing more yesterday than trade with the lower stock market early, tested Wednesday’s lows and rallied into the close. It looks like the exact same thing is going to happen again this morning with overnight Dow futures down 200, S&P futures down 22, and overnight Globex cattle futures down $.50. Keep in mind we will have a cattle on feed report out tonight after the close, which is expected to show on feed Jan 1, 2009 93.9%, placed during December 100.1%, and marketed during December 99.3%. The report should show that fed cattle numbers get very manageable in the next 4 weeks, which should be supportive to the front end of the board. Feedlot placement activity will continue to grow in the coming months as placements the last several months have been running below year ago levels. These cattle are outside feedlots right now waiting to be placed at heavier weights, which is going to start to build fed cattle supplies for the late summer/early fall marketing timeframes. The market should find some support on a lower trade today until we get the on feed report behind us. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, and if today is like any other day this week, you can buy fats and feeders $1 lower and look to sell them out higher on the day by the close. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned active yesterday in southern plains feedlots at prices generally $2 lower than the week before. Texas/OK/NM feedlots sold 18,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live and Kansas feedlots sold 28,200 head of fed cattle for $82 live. There was also trade that took place in the north with prices mostly steady with Wednesday as we see Nebraska feedlots selling 26,300 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed, Colorado selling 1,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live, and Iowa/MN feedlots selling 7,700 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed. The northern trade of fed cattle should be about wrapped up for the week and any cleanup trade that occurs today should take place at steady money with yesterday. The south could probably use to sell a few more cattle and here too, any trade that does develop should take place at steady money with the bulk of yesterday’s trade. A few plants in the north are said to be booked up with cattle into the end of next week and first half of the following week. Southern packers remain rather close to the knife in terms of inventory and this might take some leverage away from them in next weeks price negotiations. I am going to look for a steady to higher fed cattle trade for next week. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cow markets remain firm and given the level of demand for ground beef, lack of near term beef imports, and tightening of cow numbers in the west I will call for a steady to firm cow market early next week. Feeder cattle markets remain a under pressure going into the weekend as lower fed cattle markets, both futures and cash, keeps buyers looking to procure inventory at lower money. Feeder cattle runs should start to tighten up a bit towards the end of the month, which I think with an increase in fed cattle prices should support feeder cattle values in the lower $90’s basis the CME index.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be 1,000 head above the same day last week and 1,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 490,000 head, which would be 8,000 head above the same period a week ago, with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $2.10 lower to settle at $149.65 and the select cutout closing $.98 lower to settle at $143.54. Sales volume was good with 301 loads of beef sold (127.22 loads of choice fab cuts, 110.19 loads of select fab cuts, 22.58 loads of trim, 41.22 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $6.12 a loss of $1.12.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with price discounts showing up in most all primal areas of the beef carcass as packer margins are attractive and they ramp up production to take advantage of the situation. This has put a larger mix of beef cuts on the market that buyers are only willing to absorb now that they have comfortable inventory positions. Ground beef remains firm from most points of sale and higher prices in that complex along with higher prices in the boneless grinding beef complex should prevail into next week. I will continue to look for choice cutout values to drift into the $1.45 area and select cutout values to drift into the $1.40 area by the first of February. Export sales for the week of January 9-15, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,500 MT were primarily for Mexico (2,000 MT), Japan (1,800 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Exports of 8,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), Vietnam (1,400 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.27 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $85.40 a gain of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $84.17 a gain of $.07. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.47 a gain of $.60, March feeder cattle settled at $92.30 a gain of $.95, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.40 a gain of $.60. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/21/09 was $95.52 a loss of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a loss of $.27, April/June settled at $1.22 a gain of $.12, and June/August settled at -$.77 a loss of $.05. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.17 a loss of $.35, March/April settled at -$1.10 a gain of $.35, April/May settled at -$2.05 a loss of $.15.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,962 contracts trade in the pit and 10,406 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 131 contracts to come in this morning at 205,233. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,443 contracts trade in the pit and 762 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 200 contracts to come in this morning at 21,068.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on hedge lifting, short covering, and a late rally in the Dow. We did nothing more yesterday than trade with the lower stock market early, tested Wednesday’s lows and rallied into the close. It looks like the exact same thing is going to happen again this morning with overnight Dow futures down 200, S&P futures down 22, and overnight Globex cattle futures down $.50. Keep in mind we will have a cattle on feed report out tonight after the close, which is expected to show on feed Jan 1, 2009 93.9%, placed during December 100.1%, and marketed during December 99.3%. The report should show that fed cattle numbers get very manageable in the next 4 weeks, which should be supportive to the front end of the board. Feedlot placement activity will continue to grow in the coming months as placements the last several months have been running below year ago levels. These cattle are outside feedlots right now waiting to be placed at heavier weights, which is going to start to build fed cattle supplies for the late summer/early fall marketing timeframes. The market should find some support on a lower trade today until we get the on feed report behind us. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, and if today is like any other day this week, you can buy fats and feeders $1 lower and look to sell them out higher on the day by the close. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)