January 30, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw continued feedlot movement of fed cattle in Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa yesterday with each state selling about 4,000-5,000 head apiece at mostly $80 live and $1.28-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots have yet to sell any cattle and with the way the board is acting it looks like it should be an $81 market down there by this afternoon. So far this week movement looks pretty good in all trading areas with Kansas selling 34,000 head, Nebraska selling 70,000 head, Colorado selling 15,000 head, and Iowa/MN selling 24,000 head. This will help in keeping front end numbers of fed cattle manageable in the coming weeks. Going home for the weekend feeder cattle markets remain under pressure by $1-$3. I would expect to see both the cash fed cattle and feeder cattle markets begin to stabilize at current price levels going into next week. Slaughter cow markets remain $1-$3 higher going into the end of the week on good packer demand and I will look for more of the same early next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 3,000 head below last week and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 497,000 head, which would be 7,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.46 lower to settle at $143.77 and the select cutout closing $1.20 lower to settle at $139.68. Sales volume was good with 340 loads of beef sold (205.17 loads of choice fab cuts, 80.44 loads of select fab cuts, 20.29 loads of trim, 34.09 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.09 a loss of $1.26.
The beef market was lower yesterday as packers offer product at sharply lower price levels to entice buyers back into the market. The strategy worked with many on the buy side willing to take on extra inventory of rib and loin items at the lower market values. Boneless beef items were about the only thing that was trading at higher money yesterday as there remains good demand for processing beef from the grinding sector and cow numbers are said to be getting tighter. I am going to look for beef values to begin finding support as the choice cutout approaches the $1.40 area by late next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.10 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $84.32 a loss of $.10, and the June live cattle settled at $82.02 a loss of $.27. In the feeder cattle pit, March feeder cattle settled at $90.62 a gain of $.05, April feeder cattle settled at $91.65 a loss of $.15, and the May feeder cattle settled at $93.55 a gain of $.10. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/28/09 was $94.70 a loss of $.17. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.22 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $2.30 a gain of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.60 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: March/April settled at -$1.02 a gain of $.20, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.20, and May/August settled at -$1.60 a gain of $.50.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 26,011 contracts trade in the pit and 9,996 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 23 contracts to come in this morning at 206,973. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,714 contracts trade in the pit and 1,322 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 322 contracts to come in this morning at 22,182.
Futures managed to come back and settle mixed to slightly lower yesterday after trading sharply lower early in the session and making new contract lows in February live cattle. January feeder cattle went off the board yesterday at $94.27 without much excitement. March feeders take over as lead contract month with a $4 discount to the CME index. We have this weeks cash fed and feeder cattle markets prices about right now the market will be positioning ahead of the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released at 2:00 pm. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves on Jan 1 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. Once again the report will show that the supply side of the market remains friendly going forward and once we get the near term demand situation straightened out we can expect to see a sizeable rally in cattle futures and cash cattle values. If we are not at a bottom, we are getting very close, so if looking for long term trading strategies I think you want to be looking at the long side of the market. Look for a $.20-$.40 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
January 29, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw further trading in the cash feedlot market yesterday with prices drifting another $1-$2 lower from Tuesday’s trade. Kansas feedlots started trading cattle yesterday at $80-$80.50 on about 8,000 head. Nebraska feedlots saw further trade at $80-$80.50 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed on about 25,000 head, with Iowa and Colorado each selling about 5,000 head of cattle at $80 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots did not sell any cattle yesterday opting to hold out for higher money. This will likely turn out to be a futile attempt and I would look for a steady to $1 lower market in that part of the country by the end of the week. Feeder cattle sales remain under pressure going into the weekend as weakness in the fed cattle market and a few more receipts around keep pressure on that market. Slaughter cows are higher coming into the end of the week and I would continue to look for support in that market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same day a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 374,000 head, which would be 10,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.18 lower to settle at $146.23 and the select cutout closing $1.66 lower to settle at $140.88. Sales volume was good with 349 loads of beef sold (145.98 loads of choice fab cuts, 97.13 loads of select fab cuts, 20.84 loads of trim, 84.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $5.35 a gain of $.48.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts now surfacing throughout the entire beef carcass. Weekly production running 10,000 head above last week and steady at best demand for beef are reasons for the lower market. Lower money was also beginning to show up in the ground beef market. The beef market will likely continue to drift into the lower $1.40’s basis the choice cutout into the first couple of weeks of February. Exports for the week of January 16-22, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,800 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,800 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.17 a loss of $.10, April live cattle settled at $84.42 a gain of $.02, and the June live cattle settled at $82.30 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.20 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $90.57 a gain of $.30, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.80 a gain of $.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/27/09 was $94.87 a loss of $.08. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $2.12 a gain of $.02, and June/August settled at -$.32 a gain of $.42. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.62 a loss of $.20, March/April settled at -$1.22 a gain of $.02, and April/May settled at -$1.70 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 19,300 contracts trade in the pit and 11,245 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 328 contracts to come in this morning at 207,060. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,329 contracts trade in the pit and 953 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 473 contracts to come in this morning at 21,860.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled mixed yesterday with some moderate strength being found in feeder cattle by the close. Lower cash markets and idea cash cattle might be lower again next week were reasons live cattle couldn’t rally much yesterday. Spec selling and some new hedge selling were also showing up in the market yesterday. February live cattle futures are making new contract lows on the overnight Globex trade, which along with lower stock futures will certainly keep some pressure on the market today as well. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week so now the market will await the cash fed cattle trade in Texas and begin positioning for the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released tomorrow afternoon after the close. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows/heifers 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. The report again will show the supply friendliness of the market going forward into 2010/2011. Look for a lower trade in the cattle futures today and new contract lows in February live. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw further trading in the cash feedlot market yesterday with prices drifting another $1-$2 lower from Tuesday’s trade. Kansas feedlots started trading cattle yesterday at $80-$80.50 on about 8,000 head. Nebraska feedlots saw further trade at $80-$80.50 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed on about 25,000 head, with Iowa and Colorado each selling about 5,000 head of cattle at $80 live and $1.29-$1.30 dressed. Texas feedlots did not sell any cattle yesterday opting to hold out for higher money. This will likely turn out to be a futile attempt and I would look for a steady to $1 lower market in that part of the country by the end of the week. Feeder cattle sales remain under pressure going into the weekend as weakness in the fed cattle market and a few more receipts around keep pressure on that market. Slaughter cows are higher coming into the end of the week and I would continue to look for support in that market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same day a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 374,000 head, which would be 10,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.18 lower to settle at $146.23 and the select cutout closing $1.66 lower to settle at $140.88. Sales volume was good with 349 loads of beef sold (145.98 loads of choice fab cuts, 97.13 loads of select fab cuts, 20.84 loads of trim, 84.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $5.35 a gain of $.48.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with discounts now surfacing throughout the entire beef carcass. Weekly production running 10,000 head above last week and steady at best demand for beef are reasons for the lower market. Lower money was also beginning to show up in the ground beef market. The beef market will likely continue to drift into the lower $1.40’s basis the choice cutout into the first couple of weeks of February. Exports for the week of January 16-22, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,800 MT were primarily for Mexico (4,800 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), and Taiwan (400 MT). Exports of 8,000 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), Vietnam (900 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.17 a loss of $.10, April live cattle settled at $84.42 a gain of $.02, and the June live cattle settled at $82.30 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.20 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $90.57 a gain of $.30, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.80 a gain of $.27. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/27/09 was $94.87 a loss of $.08. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $2.12 a gain of $.02, and June/August settled at -$.32 a gain of $.42. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.62 a loss of $.20, March/April settled at -$1.22 a gain of $.02, and April/May settled at -$1.70 a loss of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 19,300 contracts trade in the pit and 11,245 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 328 contracts to come in this morning at 207,060. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,329 contracts trade in the pit and 953 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 473 contracts to come in this morning at 21,860.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled mixed yesterday with some moderate strength being found in feeder cattle by the close. Lower cash markets and idea cash cattle might be lower again next week were reasons live cattle couldn’t rally much yesterday. Spec selling and some new hedge selling were also showing up in the market yesterday. February live cattle futures are making new contract lows on the overnight Globex trade, which along with lower stock futures will certainly keep some pressure on the market today as well. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week so now the market will await the cash fed cattle trade in Texas and begin positioning for the semi-annual cattle inventory report set to be released tomorrow afternoon after the close. Estimates for the report are all cattle and calves 99.3%, annual calf crop 99.3%, total cows/heifers 99%, beef cows 98.8%, and dairy cows 100.1%. The report again will show the supply friendliness of the market going forward into 2010/2011. Look for a lower trade in the cattle futures today and new contract lows in February live. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
January 28, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light fed cattle trade develop in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late yesterday afternoon at $1-$2 lower money. Approximately 5,000-10,000 head of cattle changed hands at mostly $81 live and $1.30-$1.31 dressed yesterday afternoon in the north on fears the market was going to get worse before it gets better. Most other feedlots in the north and in the south were resisting the lower packer bids opting to see if the board can rebound any by the end of the week before negotiating prices on this week’s showlists. If we can get a rally in the futures by Friday, which could happen given oversold conditions and strength in the stock market, perhaps the rest of cattle feeding country can hold the market steady with last week. Feeder cattle markets remain under pressure with most auction markets across the country calling their markets $1-$3 lower. This will likely be the case for the next week or two until we begin to see feeder cattle numbers coming to market subside a little and we stabilize the fed cattle market. There remains a pretty good call for slaughter cows with most salebarns reporting $1-2 higher.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 11,000 head above the same period with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.72 lower to settle at $147.41 and the select cutout closing $1.01 lower to settle at $142.54. Sales volume was light with 228 loads of beef sold (97.96 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.35 loads of select fab cuts, 18.46 loads of trim, 34.55 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.87 a gain of $.29.
The beef market was lower again yesterday as slaughter levels running 11,000 head above last week at this time are being met with steady to weaker buyer demand. Most items throughout the major primal areas of the beef carcass were either trading at steady to lower price levels yesterday, with the exception of a few select middle meat items. Ground beef still had a steady call as did lean boneless beef during yesterdays trading session. With the increased fed cattle production the first part of this week, 50% fed cattle trim was starting to come under pressure yesterday. I will continue to look for boxed beef markets to drift lower into next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.27 a loss of $1.07, April live cattle settled at $84.40 a loss of $1.20, and June live cattle settled at $82.30 a loss of $1.52. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.10 a gain of $.35, March feeder cattle settled at $90.27 a loss of $1.45, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.52 a loss of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/26/09 was $94.95 a loss of $.19. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $2.10 a gain of $.32, and June/August settled at -$.75 a loss of $.15. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.82 a gain of $1.80, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.37, and April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,188 contracts trade in the pit and 10,494 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 321 contracts to come in this morning at 206,740. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,957 contracts trade in the pit and 1,119 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 382 contracts to come in this morning at 21,379.
Cattle futures were under pressure for most of the session yesterday as ideas of lower cash cattle and beef values along with formidable spec selling kept the market under wraps all day. It certainly appears as though the futures market wants to go and test old contract lows and perhaps make new lows in Feb and April live despite the recent strength we are seeing in the equity markets. We have now priced in a lower fed cattle trade for this week along with lower cash feeder markets, which could mean that we could see a reprieve in selling for today and tomorrow. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in the Dow this morning, which I think will translate into a higher open and perhaps a small rally in cattle futures this morning. If you are selling cash fed cattle down here you need to be looking for a spot to buy them back on paper. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light fed cattle trade develop in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late yesterday afternoon at $1-$2 lower money. Approximately 5,000-10,000 head of cattle changed hands at mostly $81 live and $1.30-$1.31 dressed yesterday afternoon in the north on fears the market was going to get worse before it gets better. Most other feedlots in the north and in the south were resisting the lower packer bids opting to see if the board can rebound any by the end of the week before negotiating prices on this week’s showlists. If we can get a rally in the futures by Friday, which could happen given oversold conditions and strength in the stock market, perhaps the rest of cattle feeding country can hold the market steady with last week. Feeder cattle markets remain under pressure with most auction markets across the country calling their markets $1-$3 lower. This will likely be the case for the next week or two until we begin to see feeder cattle numbers coming to market subside a little and we stabilize the fed cattle market. There remains a pretty good call for slaughter cows with most salebarns reporting $1-2 higher.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be even with last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 252,000 head, which would be 11,000 head above the same period with the industry looking for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.72 lower to settle at $147.41 and the select cutout closing $1.01 lower to settle at $142.54. Sales volume was light with 228 loads of beef sold (97.96 loads of choice fab cuts, 77.35 loads of select fab cuts, 18.46 loads of trim, 34.55 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.87 a gain of $.29.
The beef market was lower again yesterday as slaughter levels running 11,000 head above last week at this time are being met with steady to weaker buyer demand. Most items throughout the major primal areas of the beef carcass were either trading at steady to lower price levels yesterday, with the exception of a few select middle meat items. Ground beef still had a steady call as did lean boneless beef during yesterdays trading session. With the increased fed cattle production the first part of this week, 50% fed cattle trim was starting to come under pressure yesterday. I will continue to look for boxed beef markets to drift lower into next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $81.27 a loss of $1.07, April live cattle settled at $84.40 a loss of $1.20, and June live cattle settled at $82.30 a loss of $1.52. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $94.10 a gain of $.35, March feeder cattle settled at $90.27 a loss of $1.45, and the April feeder cattle settled at $91.52 a loss of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/26/09 was $94.95 a loss of $.19. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $2.10 a gain of $.32, and June/August settled at -$.75 a loss of $.15. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $3.82 a gain of $1.80, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.37, and April/May settled at -$1.67 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 22,188 contracts trade in the pit and 10,494 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 321 contracts to come in this morning at 206,740. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,957 contracts trade in the pit and 1,119 trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 382 contracts to come in this morning at 21,379.
Cattle futures were under pressure for most of the session yesterday as ideas of lower cash cattle and beef values along with formidable spec selling kept the market under wraps all day. It certainly appears as though the futures market wants to go and test old contract lows and perhaps make new lows in Feb and April live despite the recent strength we are seeing in the equity markets. We have now priced in a lower fed cattle trade for this week along with lower cash feeder markets, which could mean that we could see a reprieve in selling for today and tomorrow. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in the Dow this morning, which I think will translate into a higher open and perhaps a small rally in cattle futures this morning. If you are selling cash fed cattle down here you need to be looking for a spot to buy them back on paper. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
January 27, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market went largely untested with no real packer bids to speak of and feedlots beginning the week offering cattle at $85-$86 live and $1.35-$1.37 dressed. Last weeks feedlot movement looks like this, Texas/OK/NM yards sold 43,796 head of fed cattle, Kansas yards sold 41,860 head of fed cattle, and Nebraska yards sold 75,446 head of fed cattle all for mostly $82 live and $1.32 dressed. Movement looked to be decent given the number of cattle for sale last week, which is leading to a modestly smaller offering of cattle in the south this week with larger numbers for sale in Nebraska. Fed cattle selling through the nations salebarns begin the week trading at lower money in sympathy with last weeks feedlot sales. Feeder cattle look softer to begin the week as well with Oklahoma City calling their market steady to $3 lower. I will look for this weeks fed cattle trade to be softer early and firming late.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 124,000 head, which would be 8,000 head below the same day a week ago and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will look for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.18 lower to settle at $148.13 and the select cutout closing $.32 lower to settle at $143.55. Sales volume was light with 210 loads of beef sold (105.66 loads of choice fab cuts, 56.16 loads of select fab cuts, 17.83 loads of trim, 30.45 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.58 a gain of $.14.
The beef market was under pressure again yesterday with discounts once again surfacing in the rib, round, and loin complexes. The ground beef market was mostly steady yesterday, however sources cited demand was beginning to back off a bit. Packers have pretty decent margins right now and will want to be killing extra cattle to take advantage of it. This is going to put extra product on the market for the balance of this week and into the first of next, which inevitably will weigh on cutout values. Continue to look for a lower beef trade.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.32, April live cattle settled at $85.60 a loss of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $83.82 a loss of $.35. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.75 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $91.72 a loss of $1.02, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.60 a loss of $.92. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/23/09 was $95.14 a loss of $.20. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.77 a gain of $.15, June/August settled at -$.60 a gain of $.10. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $2.02 a gain of $1.12, March/April settled at -$.87 a loss of $.10, April/May settled at -$1.90 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,134 contracts trade in the pit and 5,533 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 1,793 contracts to come in this morning at 207,062. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,182 contracts trade in the pit and 601 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 264 contracts to come in this morning at 20,991.
The futures market opened higher yesterday in reaction to the friendly cattle on feed report, however spec and hedge selling surfaced shortly after the open to cap the early rally attempt. The cattle on feed report indicated that the market has very supply friendly fundamentals going forward, however worries over near term demand are an overriding factor right now and this keeps rallies in the market at bay. We will continue to look for support in the market at contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb and $82.45 in the April. The market sure seems like it want to go and test those old lows and we will have to see if they hold or not. My opinion is that if they don’t hold we could get one more quick break before rallying into spring. Feeders should be able to hold the $89-$90 area on any further weakness. We will need to see Feb cattle start closing back above the $83 area in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market went largely untested with no real packer bids to speak of and feedlots beginning the week offering cattle at $85-$86 live and $1.35-$1.37 dressed. Last weeks feedlot movement looks like this, Texas/OK/NM yards sold 43,796 head of fed cattle, Kansas yards sold 41,860 head of fed cattle, and Nebraska yards sold 75,446 head of fed cattle all for mostly $82 live and $1.32 dressed. Movement looked to be decent given the number of cattle for sale last week, which is leading to a modestly smaller offering of cattle in the south this week with larger numbers for sale in Nebraska. Fed cattle selling through the nations salebarns begin the week trading at lower money in sympathy with last weeks feedlot sales. Feeder cattle look softer to begin the week as well with Oklahoma City calling their market steady to $3 lower. I will look for this weeks fed cattle trade to be softer early and firming late.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 124,000 head, which would be 8,000 head below the same day a week ago and 3,000 head above the same day a year ago. The industry will look for a 640,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.18 lower to settle at $148.13 and the select cutout closing $.32 lower to settle at $143.55. Sales volume was light with 210 loads of beef sold (105.66 loads of choice fab cuts, 56.16 loads of select fab cuts, 17.83 loads of trim, 30.45 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $4.58 a gain of $.14.
The beef market was under pressure again yesterday with discounts once again surfacing in the rib, round, and loin complexes. The ground beef market was mostly steady yesterday, however sources cited demand was beginning to back off a bit. Packers have pretty decent margins right now and will want to be killing extra cattle to take advantage of it. This is going to put extra product on the market for the balance of this week and into the first of next, which inevitably will weigh on cutout values. Continue to look for a lower beef trade.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.32, April live cattle settled at $85.60 a loss of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $83.82 a loss of $.35. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.75 a gain of $.10, March feeder cattle settled at $91.72 a loss of $1.02, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.60 a loss of $.92. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/23/09 was $95.14 a loss of $.20. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.25 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.77 a gain of $.15, June/August settled at -$.60 a gain of $.10. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $2.02 a gain of $1.12, March/April settled at -$.87 a loss of $.10, April/May settled at -$1.90 a gain of $.22.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 23,134 contracts trade in the pit and 5,533 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 1,793 contracts to come in this morning at 207,062. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,182 contracts trade in the pit and 601 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 264 contracts to come in this morning at 20,991.
The futures market opened higher yesterday in reaction to the friendly cattle on feed report, however spec and hedge selling surfaced shortly after the open to cap the early rally attempt. The cattle on feed report indicated that the market has very supply friendly fundamentals going forward, however worries over near term demand are an overriding factor right now and this keeps rallies in the market at bay. We will continue to look for support in the market at contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb and $82.45 in the April. The market sure seems like it want to go and test those old lows and we will have to see if they hold or not. My opinion is that if they don’t hold we could get one more quick break before rallying into spring. Feeders should be able to hold the $89-$90 area on any further weakness. We will need to see Feb cattle start closing back above the $83 area in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, January 26, 2009
January 26, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $2-$4 lower at $82 live and $1.32 dressed. For the week feeder cattle values were off by $2-$4 and slaughter cows were mostly $1-$2 higher. The USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report on Friday, with on feed Jan 1 at 11.234 mil head or 92.9% (93.9% pre-report), placed during December 1.647 mil head or 96.8% (100.1% pre-report), and marketed during December at 1.683 mil head or 102.3% (99.3% pre-report). The report will be considered friendly at the placement numbers came in below expectations and the marketing number came in above pre-report estimates. The overall on feed number will continue to be supply friendly into spring/early summer marketing timeframes and continues to show feedlots remain current on marketing’s. Placements of cattle continue to run below year ago levels on cattle weighing less than 700 lbs. This week’s cash fed cattle market should be steady to $1 higher, feeder cattle values will likely remain under pressure for the first part of the week, and I would look for continued support in the slaughter cow market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The boxed beef market lost $1 on the choice product and the select cutout held mostly steady according to the USDA on moderate movement. Retail and wholesale interest for boxed beef began to wane early last week as many buyers filled their most immediate needs and moved to the sidelines looking for improved consumer demand and bargains in the beef complex. Discounts were noted throughout the entire beef carcass last week, with the exception of select rib items and ground beef. I would look for more of the same early this week in the beef market and I will still target the $1.43-$1.45 on the choice cutout and $1.39-$1.40 area on the select cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
The futures market was choppy and volatile all of last week as the market anticipated a lower cash fed and feeder cattle market. The futures market was also very sensitive to the wild gyrations in the stock market. This week we should open a little higher on the friendly cattle on feed report and the possibility of a higher cash fed cattle market. The market will once again be on pins and needles in terms of what the stock market does early this week and I’m sure we will find people who will want to sell a higher open. However, I still think we will get our near term fed cattle supplies cleaned up in a couple of weeks and I expect to see improved beef demand by mid-February, both domestic and international. It’s not to say that we can’t see the stock market go and test old lows at 7500 basis the Dow, which would inevitably push fed cattle futures down into new lows, but if such a scenario were to develop I don’t think it would last very long and I still think higher prices are in the cards by March/April. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $2-$4 lower at $82 live and $1.32 dressed. For the week feeder cattle values were off by $2-$4 and slaughter cows were mostly $1-$2 higher. The USDA released its monthly cattle on feed report on Friday, with on feed Jan 1 at 11.234 mil head or 92.9% (93.9% pre-report), placed during December 1.647 mil head or 96.8% (100.1% pre-report), and marketed during December at 1.683 mil head or 102.3% (99.3% pre-report). The report will be considered friendly at the placement numbers came in below expectations and the marketing number came in above pre-report estimates. The overall on feed number will continue to be supply friendly into spring/early summer marketing timeframes and continues to show feedlots remain current on marketing’s. Placements of cattle continue to run below year ago levels on cattle weighing less than 700 lbs. This week’s cash fed cattle market should be steady to $1 higher, feeder cattle values will likely remain under pressure for the first part of the week, and I would look for continued support in the slaughter cow market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
The boxed beef market lost $1 on the choice product and the select cutout held mostly steady according to the USDA on moderate movement. Retail and wholesale interest for boxed beef began to wane early last week as many buyers filled their most immediate needs and moved to the sidelines looking for improved consumer demand and bargains in the beef complex. Discounts were noted throughout the entire beef carcass last week, with the exception of select rib items and ground beef. I would look for more of the same early this week in the beef market and I will still target the $1.43-$1.45 on the choice cutout and $1.39-$1.40 area on the select cutout.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
The futures market was choppy and volatile all of last week as the market anticipated a lower cash fed and feeder cattle market. The futures market was also very sensitive to the wild gyrations in the stock market. This week we should open a little higher on the friendly cattle on feed report and the possibility of a higher cash fed cattle market. The market will once again be on pins and needles in terms of what the stock market does early this week and I’m sure we will find people who will want to sell a higher open. However, I still think we will get our near term fed cattle supplies cleaned up in a couple of weeks and I expect to see improved beef demand by mid-February, both domestic and international. It’s not to say that we can’t see the stock market go and test old lows at 7500 basis the Dow, which would inevitably push fed cattle futures down into new lows, but if such a scenario were to develop I don’t think it would last very long and I still think higher prices are in the cards by March/April. Look for a $.25-$.50 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 23, 2009
January 23, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned active yesterday in southern plains feedlots at prices generally $2 lower than the week before. Texas/OK/NM feedlots sold 18,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live and Kansas feedlots sold 28,200 head of fed cattle for $82 live. There was also trade that took place in the north with prices mostly steady with Wednesday as we see Nebraska feedlots selling 26,300 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed, Colorado selling 1,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live, and Iowa/MN feedlots selling 7,700 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed. The northern trade of fed cattle should be about wrapped up for the week and any cleanup trade that occurs today should take place at steady money with yesterday. The south could probably use to sell a few more cattle and here too, any trade that does develop should take place at steady money with the bulk of yesterday’s trade. A few plants in the north are said to be booked up with cattle into the end of next week and first half of the following week. Southern packers remain rather close to the knife in terms of inventory and this might take some leverage away from them in next weeks price negotiations. I am going to look for a steady to higher fed cattle trade for next week. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cow markets remain firm and given the level of demand for ground beef, lack of near term beef imports, and tightening of cow numbers in the west I will call for a steady to firm cow market early next week. Feeder cattle markets remain a under pressure going into the weekend as lower fed cattle markets, both futures and cash, keeps buyers looking to procure inventory at lower money. Feeder cattle runs should start to tighten up a bit towards the end of the month, which I think with an increase in fed cattle prices should support feeder cattle values in the lower $90’s basis the CME index.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be 1,000 head above the same day last week and 1,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 490,000 head, which would be 8,000 head above the same period a week ago, with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $2.10 lower to settle at $149.65 and the select cutout closing $.98 lower to settle at $143.54. Sales volume was good with 301 loads of beef sold (127.22 loads of choice fab cuts, 110.19 loads of select fab cuts, 22.58 loads of trim, 41.22 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $6.12 a loss of $1.12.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with price discounts showing up in most all primal areas of the beef carcass as packer margins are attractive and they ramp up production to take advantage of the situation. This has put a larger mix of beef cuts on the market that buyers are only willing to absorb now that they have comfortable inventory positions. Ground beef remains firm from most points of sale and higher prices in that complex along with higher prices in the boneless grinding beef complex should prevail into next week. I will continue to look for choice cutout values to drift into the $1.45 area and select cutout values to drift into the $1.40 area by the first of February. Export sales for the week of January 9-15, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,500 MT were primarily for Mexico (2,000 MT), Japan (1,800 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Exports of 8,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), Vietnam (1,400 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.27 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $85.40 a gain of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $84.17 a gain of $.07. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.47 a gain of $.60, March feeder cattle settled at $92.30 a gain of $.95, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.40 a gain of $.60. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/21/09 was $95.52 a loss of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a loss of $.27, April/June settled at $1.22 a gain of $.12, and June/August settled at -$.77 a loss of $.05. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.17 a loss of $.35, March/April settled at -$1.10 a gain of $.35, April/May settled at -$2.05 a loss of $.15.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,962 contracts trade in the pit and 10,406 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 131 contracts to come in this morning at 205,233. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,443 contracts trade in the pit and 762 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 200 contracts to come in this morning at 21,068.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on hedge lifting, short covering, and a late rally in the Dow. We did nothing more yesterday than trade with the lower stock market early, tested Wednesday’s lows and rallied into the close. It looks like the exact same thing is going to happen again this morning with overnight Dow futures down 200, S&P futures down 22, and overnight Globex cattle futures down $.50. Keep in mind we will have a cattle on feed report out tonight after the close, which is expected to show on feed Jan 1, 2009 93.9%, placed during December 100.1%, and marketed during December 99.3%. The report should show that fed cattle numbers get very manageable in the next 4 weeks, which should be supportive to the front end of the board. Feedlot placement activity will continue to grow in the coming months as placements the last several months have been running below year ago levels. These cattle are outside feedlots right now waiting to be placed at heavier weights, which is going to start to build fed cattle supplies for the late summer/early fall marketing timeframes. The market should find some support on a lower trade today until we get the on feed report behind us. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, and if today is like any other day this week, you can buy fats and feeders $1 lower and look to sell them out higher on the day by the close. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned active yesterday in southern plains feedlots at prices generally $2 lower than the week before. Texas/OK/NM feedlots sold 18,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live and Kansas feedlots sold 28,200 head of fed cattle for $82 live. There was also trade that took place in the north with prices mostly steady with Wednesday as we see Nebraska feedlots selling 26,300 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed, Colorado selling 1,500 head of fed cattle for $82 live, and Iowa/MN feedlots selling 7,700 head of fed cattle for $1.32 dressed. The northern trade of fed cattle should be about wrapped up for the week and any cleanup trade that occurs today should take place at steady money with yesterday. The south could probably use to sell a few more cattle and here too, any trade that does develop should take place at steady money with the bulk of yesterday’s trade. A few plants in the north are said to be booked up with cattle into the end of next week and first half of the following week. Southern packers remain rather close to the knife in terms of inventory and this might take some leverage away from them in next weeks price negotiations. I am going to look for a steady to higher fed cattle trade for next week. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cow markets remain firm and given the level of demand for ground beef, lack of near term beef imports, and tightening of cow numbers in the west I will call for a steady to firm cow market early next week. Feeder cattle markets remain a under pressure going into the weekend as lower fed cattle markets, both futures and cash, keeps buyers looking to procure inventory at lower money. Feeder cattle runs should start to tighten up a bit towards the end of the month, which I think with an increase in fed cattle prices should support feeder cattle values in the lower $90’s basis the CME index.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be 1,000 head above the same day last week and 1,000 head above the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 490,000 head, which would be 8,000 head above the same period a week ago, with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $2.10 lower to settle at $149.65 and the select cutout closing $.98 lower to settle at $143.54. Sales volume was good with 301 loads of beef sold (127.22 loads of choice fab cuts, 110.19 loads of select fab cuts, 22.58 loads of trim, 41.22 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $6.12 a loss of $1.12.
The beef market was lower again yesterday with price discounts showing up in most all primal areas of the beef carcass as packer margins are attractive and they ramp up production to take advantage of the situation. This has put a larger mix of beef cuts on the market that buyers are only willing to absorb now that they have comfortable inventory positions. Ground beef remains firm from most points of sale and higher prices in that complex along with higher prices in the boneless grinding beef complex should prevail into next week. I will continue to look for choice cutout values to drift into the $1.45 area and select cutout values to drift into the $1.40 area by the first of February. Export sales for the week of January 9-15, 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,500 MT were primarily for Mexico (2,000 MT), Japan (1,800 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT). Exports of 8,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (3,100 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), Vietnam (1,400 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Japan (700 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.27 a loss of $.07, April live cattle settled at $85.40 a gain of $.20, and the June live cattle settled at $84.17 a gain of $.07. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.47 a gain of $.60, March feeder cattle settled at $92.30 a gain of $.95, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.40 a gain of $.60. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/21/09 was $95.52 a loss of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.12 a loss of $.27, April/June settled at $1.22 a gain of $.12, and June/August settled at -$.77 a loss of $.05. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.17 a loss of $.35, March/April settled at -$1.10 a gain of $.35, April/May settled at -$2.05 a loss of $.15.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,962 contracts trade in the pit and 10,406 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 131 contracts to come in this morning at 205,233. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,443 contracts trade in the pit and 762 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 200 contracts to come in this morning at 21,068.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on hedge lifting, short covering, and a late rally in the Dow. We did nothing more yesterday than trade with the lower stock market early, tested Wednesday’s lows and rallied into the close. It looks like the exact same thing is going to happen again this morning with overnight Dow futures down 200, S&P futures down 22, and overnight Globex cattle futures down $.50. Keep in mind we will have a cattle on feed report out tonight after the close, which is expected to show on feed Jan 1, 2009 93.9%, placed during December 100.1%, and marketed during December 99.3%. The report should show that fed cattle numbers get very manageable in the next 4 weeks, which should be supportive to the front end of the board. Feedlot placement activity will continue to grow in the coming months as placements the last several months have been running below year ago levels. These cattle are outside feedlots right now waiting to be placed at heavier weights, which is going to start to build fed cattle supplies for the late summer/early fall marketing timeframes. The market should find some support on a lower trade today until we get the on feed report behind us. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning, and if today is like any other day this week, you can buy fats and feeders $1 lower and look to sell them out higher on the day by the close. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
January 22, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned moderately active in the north yesterday with sales running generally $1-$3 lower when compared to last week. The USDA was reporting 7,400 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $81-$82 live and $1.32 dressed and 9,600 head of cattle sold in Colorado at $82.50 live and $1.32 dressed. Packers in Texas and Kansas were bidding $81-$82 with most feedlots opting to pass on those bids. Lower cattle futures and boxed beef markets were the catalysts for the lower trade yesterday, and it now looks like the southern trade will inevitably take place at $82-$83. Fat cattle at the Sioux Falls, SD auction market were also being marked about $1 lower yesterday with the beef fats bringing $80-$82 and the Holstein fats bringing $69-$72. Slaughter cow markets are firm by $1-$2 this week with the majority of the cutter and boning utility cows bringing $43-$48 and the breakers and whites bringing $48-$56. Most feeder cattle sales around the country are turning $1-$3 lower results. Sales like El Reno, OK and Dodge City, KS were calling their market that way yesterday with the majority of the 600 lbs to 800 lbs steer cattle bringing $88-$99. The fed cattle market is dragging the feeder cattle market lower as we get into the last half of January. Boxed beef values are expected to drift down to the mid-$1.40’s basis the choice cutout, which should begin to support cash fed cattle values at current price levels, given that packers are currently making $35-$40 per head. Much of this break has already been priced into the futures and this week’s cash market, which should mean that we could find some support down here for a week or two until we see what kind of demand develops into the first of February. Cash feeder cattle values could have a little more to loose, however the board has already priced in a lower $90’s CME feeder index with yesterdays price action. Cows should find some support at current price levels as there is very good demand for ground beef right now and imports from overseas are down due to production cutbacks in South America and Australia.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 11,000 head below last week and 6,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 364,000 head, which would be 7,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.22 lower to settle at $151.75 and the select cutout closing $1.15 lower to settle at $144.52. Sales volume was good with 375 loads of beef sold (137.13 loads of choice fab cuts, 140.97 loads of select fab cuts, 15.27 loads of trim, 81.61 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.23 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was under pressure yesterday with price discounts now showing up in all major primal areas of the beef carcass. We talked the last several weeks about how most major retail and wholesale buyers were hand to mouth in their purchases and due to the production cutbacks through the holidays were forced to pay up for product to get their inventory positions back into comfortable levels. Most of that buying has been completed as of late last week, and now many of the major buyers of boxed beef have moved to the sidelines looking for opportunities in the marketplace. This had packinghouse meat salesmen offering ribeyes, chuck rolls, knuckles, and peeled tenders along with many other items throughout the beef carcass at lower money. It appears as though some of the export business we saw the last couple of weeks might have been sufficed as well with chuck rolls and short ribs becoming more available in the marketplace. Ground beef demand remains very robust at the retail level and in many instances demand outweighs availability of product. With packer margins in such good shape I would imagine they will want to take advantage of the current situation and overkill for current demand. I will continue to look for a lower trend to the boxed beef market into the end of the month, with choice cutout values targeting the $1.45-$1.48 area in coming weeks.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.27, April live cattle settled at $85.20 a loss of $.15, and the June live cattle settled at $84.10 a gain of $.05. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $92.87 a loss of $.12, March feeder cattle settled at $91.35 a loss of $.40, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.80 a loss of $.70. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/20/09 was $95.98 a gain of $.02. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.85 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.10 a loss of $.20, June/August settled at -$.72 a loss of $.02. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.52 a gain of $.27, March/April settled at -$1.45 a gain of $.30, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.47.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,553 contracts trade in the pit and 14,332 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 3,070 contracts to come in this morning at 205,110. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,266 contracts trade in the pit and 1,808 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 71 contracts to come in this morning at 21,263.
The futures market was under pressure again yesterday early in the session with technical selling flourishing linked to lower stock markets and the pricing of lower cash cattle markets for this week. We did manage to find some support around midsession as declines in the equity markets abated and hedge lifting came into the market as feedlots in the north began to sell cattle. Contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb live and $82.45 in April live are now a stones through away and one would have to assume that we will be down challenging those lows by early next week given all the negativity in the marketplace. Feeder cattle might have done their job to the downside for a minute with the March contract getting into the $90.50 area early in the session, which is pricing a $5.00 break in the CME index by the first of Feb. The cattle futures market will continue to be ultra sensitive to moves in the equity markets and we will have to see if the late rally in the Dow holds for a day or two. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week, so this along with squaring of positions ahead of this Friday’s cattle on feed report might stem some of the recent selling. Estimates for the report are on feed Dec 1, 93.9%, placed during December, 100.1%, and marketed during December, 99.3%. For the balance of this week, keep an eye on the above mentioned contract lows in Feb and April live cattle and the $90 area in March feeder cattle. Violating any of those price levels on the downside by Friday would open the door for another leg down in prices starting next week, unless we get a wildly bullish report Friday afternoon. Look for a $.10-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market turned moderately active in the north yesterday with sales running generally $1-$3 lower when compared to last week. The USDA was reporting 7,400 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $81-$82 live and $1.32 dressed and 9,600 head of cattle sold in Colorado at $82.50 live and $1.32 dressed. Packers in Texas and Kansas were bidding $81-$82 with most feedlots opting to pass on those bids. Lower cattle futures and boxed beef markets were the catalysts for the lower trade yesterday, and it now looks like the southern trade will inevitably take place at $82-$83. Fat cattle at the Sioux Falls, SD auction market were also being marked about $1 lower yesterday with the beef fats bringing $80-$82 and the Holstein fats bringing $69-$72. Slaughter cow markets are firm by $1-$2 this week with the majority of the cutter and boning utility cows bringing $43-$48 and the breakers and whites bringing $48-$56. Most feeder cattle sales around the country are turning $1-$3 lower results. Sales like El Reno, OK and Dodge City, KS were calling their market that way yesterday with the majority of the 600 lbs to 800 lbs steer cattle bringing $88-$99. The fed cattle market is dragging the feeder cattle market lower as we get into the last half of January. Boxed beef values are expected to drift down to the mid-$1.40’s basis the choice cutout, which should begin to support cash fed cattle values at current price levels, given that packers are currently making $35-$40 per head. Much of this break has already been priced into the futures and this week’s cash market, which should mean that we could find some support down here for a week or two until we see what kind of demand develops into the first of February. Cash feeder cattle values could have a little more to loose, however the board has already priced in a lower $90’s CME feeder index with yesterdays price action. Cows should find some support at current price levels as there is very good demand for ground beef right now and imports from overseas are down due to production cutbacks in South America and Australia.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 123,000 head, which would be 11,000 head below last week and 6,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 364,000 head, which would be 7,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was lower with the choice cutout closing $1.22 lower to settle at $151.75 and the select cutout closing $1.15 lower to settle at $144.52. Sales volume was good with 375 loads of beef sold (137.13 loads of choice fab cuts, 140.97 loads of select fab cuts, 15.27 loads of trim, 81.61 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.23 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was under pressure yesterday with price discounts now showing up in all major primal areas of the beef carcass. We talked the last several weeks about how most major retail and wholesale buyers were hand to mouth in their purchases and due to the production cutbacks through the holidays were forced to pay up for product to get their inventory positions back into comfortable levels. Most of that buying has been completed as of late last week, and now many of the major buyers of boxed beef have moved to the sidelines looking for opportunities in the marketplace. This had packinghouse meat salesmen offering ribeyes, chuck rolls, knuckles, and peeled tenders along with many other items throughout the beef carcass at lower money. It appears as though some of the export business we saw the last couple of weeks might have been sufficed as well with chuck rolls and short ribs becoming more available in the marketplace. Ground beef demand remains very robust at the retail level and in many instances demand outweighs availability of product. With packer margins in such good shape I would imagine they will want to take advantage of the current situation and overkill for current demand. I will continue to look for a lower trend to the boxed beef market into the end of the month, with choice cutout values targeting the $1.45-$1.48 area in coming weeks.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.35 a loss of $.27, April live cattle settled at $85.20 a loss of $.15, and the June live cattle settled at $84.10 a gain of $.05. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $92.87 a loss of $.12, March feeder cattle settled at $91.35 a loss of $.40, and the April feeder cattle settled at $92.80 a loss of $.70. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/20/09 was $95.98 a gain of $.02. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.85 a loss of $.12, April/June settled at $1.10 a loss of $.20, June/August settled at -$.72 a loss of $.02. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.52 a gain of $.27, March/April settled at -$1.45 a gain of $.30, April/May settled at -$1.90 a loss of $.47.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 21,553 contracts trade in the pit and 14,332 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 3,070 contracts to come in this morning at 205,110. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,266 contracts trade in the pit and 1,808 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 71 contracts to come in this morning at 21,263.
The futures market was under pressure again yesterday early in the session with technical selling flourishing linked to lower stock markets and the pricing of lower cash cattle markets for this week. We did manage to find some support around midsession as declines in the equity markets abated and hedge lifting came into the market as feedlots in the north began to sell cattle. Contract lows of $80.60 in the Feb live and $82.45 in April live are now a stones through away and one would have to assume that we will be down challenging those lows by early next week given all the negativity in the marketplace. Feeder cattle might have done their job to the downside for a minute with the March contract getting into the $90.50 area early in the session, which is pricing a $5.00 break in the CME index by the first of Feb. The cattle futures market will continue to be ultra sensitive to moves in the equity markets and we will have to see if the late rally in the Dow holds for a day or two. We have a lower cash market priced in for this week, so this along with squaring of positions ahead of this Friday’s cattle on feed report might stem some of the recent selling. Estimates for the report are on feed Dec 1, 93.9%, placed during December, 100.1%, and marketed during December, 99.3%. For the balance of this week, keep an eye on the above mentioned contract lows in Feb and April live cattle and the $90 area in March feeder cattle. Violating any of those price levels on the downside by Friday would open the door for another leg down in prices starting next week, unless we get a wildly bullish report Friday afternoon. Look for a $.10-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
January 21, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market was untested with just a few bids surfacing in the south at $82-$83 and most feedlots priced at $87 in the south and $1.38 in the north. Last weeks market showed approximately 36,000 head of cattle sold in Texas at $84.50, 44,000 head of cattle sold in Kansas at $83-$84 live and $1.32-$1.35 dressed, and 71,000 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $83-$83.50 live and mostly $1.35 dressed, all of which would be $.50-$1 higher on the week. Showlists are mostly larger in all feeding areas again this week except for Kansas as movement in the south was a little light and more cattle become available for market in the north. The beef market, while sharply higher all of last week and modestly higher the first couple of days this week, is going to start to drift lower as most near term buying in the market gets wrapped up. Fed cattle numbers will remain ample in the northern feeding areas of the country for another couple of weeks, which will keep rallies in the market in check, unless we see some sort of weather event or some new beef demand surfaces. With the board closing like it did yesterday we will need to see some sort of turnaround in order to stave off a lower fed cattle market for this week. The way things look right now we would have to call for a steady to $.50-$1 lower fed cattle trade for this week. Feeder cattle markets carry a mostly lower undertone early this week again, with sales such as Oklahoma City and La Junta, Colorado calling their markets mostly $1-$2 lower. Most of this weakness is being found in the bigger yearling type cattle as softness in the futures market and the inability of the fed cattle market to hold much of a rally has buyers trying to buy replacement cattle at lower money. With that said though, most of the major feeding companies remain aggressive buyers for cattle weighing 700 lbs-800 lbs as they try to fill empty pen space and get cattle placed into late spring and early summer. The sales that these guys show up at carry a mostly steady to higher undertone. There is also talk about the first of the year feeder cattle run beginning to dry up and that feeder cattle numbers will become shorter as we get into the end of January. Look for feeder cattle values to drift sideways to lower for the balance of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, would be 1,000 head below last week and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Including Mondays 116,000 head slaughter the week-to-date kill now stands at 241,000 head, which would be 3,000 head behind last weeks pace with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.75 higher to settle at $152.97 and the select cutout closing $.82 higher to settle at $145.67. Sales volume was light with 172 loads of beef sold (56.34 loads of choice fab cuts, 64.11 loads of select fab cuts, 10.22 loads of trim, 41.00 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.30 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was higher yesterday, however there were pockets of weakness beginning to show up in certain primal areas of the carcass. Discounts were beginning to surface in many items throughout the round complex as well as some weakness start5ing to develop in the loin complex. PSMO’s were the main area packers needed to offer discounts as some of the demand ahead of Valentines Day gets filled. Rib and chuck items were still trading steady to higher yesterday, however I think we could end up seeing some lower prices in ribeyes by the end of the week. Ground beef remains in very good demand and higher prices continue to be the norm there. I would start to look for cutout values to begin to drift lower by the end of the week as much of the near term demand we saw the last couple of weeks begins to wane.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.62 a loss of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $85.35 a loss of $2.32, and June live cattle settled at $84.05 a loss of $2.15. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.00 a loss of $2.00, March feeder cattle settled at $91.75 a loss of $2.62, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $2.45. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/19/09 was $95.96 a loss of $.27. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.72 a gain of $.42, April/June settled at $1.30 a loss of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.70 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.25 a gain of $.25, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.17, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 25,642 contracts trade in the pit and 13,631 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 2,419 contracts to come in this morning at 203,960. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,007 contracts trade in the pit and 992 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 64 contracts to come in this morning at 21,226.
Cattle futures started the week on the defensive with live and feeder cattle ending yesterday’s session with sharp losses. Much of the weakness can be attributed to weakness in the equity markets and uncertainty over the banking sector. However, I think the market wasn’t very impressed with the way cattle sold in Texas late on Friday as many were expecting an $85 or better trade. Also there was some concern that the beef market is going to start to move a little lower. Technically the market does not look very good closing into new lows not seen since mid-December. $82 will now be an area that needs to hold in the Feb live cattle otherwise a test of contract lows of $80.60 will be in the cards. That same number in the April cattle comes at $85, otherwise contract lows of $82.45 will be in the cards. March feeders look like they want to go test psychological support at $90 and failing to hold that would keep downside targets of $84.20 in play. Keep an eye on the stock market because if that starts to fail again cattle will follow. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market was untested with just a few bids surfacing in the south at $82-$83 and most feedlots priced at $87 in the south and $1.38 in the north. Last weeks market showed approximately 36,000 head of cattle sold in Texas at $84.50, 44,000 head of cattle sold in Kansas at $83-$84 live and $1.32-$1.35 dressed, and 71,000 head of cattle sold in Nebraska at $83-$83.50 live and mostly $1.35 dressed, all of which would be $.50-$1 higher on the week. Showlists are mostly larger in all feeding areas again this week except for Kansas as movement in the south was a little light and more cattle become available for market in the north. The beef market, while sharply higher all of last week and modestly higher the first couple of days this week, is going to start to drift lower as most near term buying in the market gets wrapped up. Fed cattle numbers will remain ample in the northern feeding areas of the country for another couple of weeks, which will keep rallies in the market in check, unless we see some sort of weather event or some new beef demand surfaces. With the board closing like it did yesterday we will need to see some sort of turnaround in order to stave off a lower fed cattle market for this week. The way things look right now we would have to call for a steady to $.50-$1 lower fed cattle trade for this week. Feeder cattle markets carry a mostly lower undertone early this week again, with sales such as Oklahoma City and La Junta, Colorado calling their markets mostly $1-$2 lower. Most of this weakness is being found in the bigger yearling type cattle as softness in the futures market and the inability of the fed cattle market to hold much of a rally has buyers trying to buy replacement cattle at lower money. With that said though, most of the major feeding companies remain aggressive buyers for cattle weighing 700 lbs-800 lbs as they try to fill empty pen space and get cattle placed into late spring and early summer. The sales that these guys show up at carry a mostly steady to higher undertone. There is also talk about the first of the year feeder cattle run beginning to dry up and that feeder cattle numbers will become shorter as we get into the end of January. Look for feeder cattle values to drift sideways to lower for the balance of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, would be 1,000 head below last week and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Including Mondays 116,000 head slaughter the week-to-date kill now stands at 241,000 head, which would be 3,000 head behind last weeks pace with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.75 higher to settle at $152.97 and the select cutout closing $.82 higher to settle at $145.67. Sales volume was light with 172 loads of beef sold (56.34 loads of choice fab cuts, 64.11 loads of select fab cuts, 10.22 loads of trim, 41.00 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.30 a loss of $.07.
The beef market was higher yesterday, however there were pockets of weakness beginning to show up in certain primal areas of the carcass. Discounts were beginning to surface in many items throughout the round complex as well as some weakness start5ing to develop in the loin complex. PSMO’s were the main area packers needed to offer discounts as some of the demand ahead of Valentines Day gets filled. Rib and chuck items were still trading steady to higher yesterday, however I think we could end up seeing some lower prices in ribeyes by the end of the week. Ground beef remains in very good demand and higher prices continue to be the norm there. I would start to look for cutout values to begin to drift lower by the end of the week as much of the near term demand we saw the last couple of weeks begins to wane.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.62 a loss of $1.90, April live cattle settled at $85.35 a loss of $2.32, and June live cattle settled at $84.05 a loss of $2.15. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.00 a loss of $2.00, March feeder cattle settled at $91.75 a loss of $2.62, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $2.45. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/19/09 was $95.96 a loss of $.27. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.72 a gain of $.42, April/June settled at $1.30 a loss of $.17, and June/August settled at -$.70 a loss of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.25 a gain of $.25, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.17, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.02.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 25,642 contracts trade in the pit and 13,631 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 2,419 contracts to come in this morning at 203,960. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,007 contracts trade in the pit and 992 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 64 contracts to come in this morning at 21,226.
Cattle futures started the week on the defensive with live and feeder cattle ending yesterday’s session with sharp losses. Much of the weakness can be attributed to weakness in the equity markets and uncertainty over the banking sector. However, I think the market wasn’t very impressed with the way cattle sold in Texas late on Friday as many were expecting an $85 or better trade. Also there was some concern that the beef market is going to start to move a little lower. Technically the market does not look very good closing into new lows not seen since mid-December. $82 will now be an area that needs to hold in the Feb live cattle otherwise a test of contract lows of $80.60 will be in the cards. That same number in the April cattle comes at $85, otherwise contract lows of $82.45 will be in the cards. March feeders look like they want to go test psychological support at $90 and failing to hold that would keep downside targets of $84.20 in play. Keep an eye on the stock market because if that starts to fail again cattle will follow. Look for a $.10-$.20 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 16, 2009
January 16, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a few more cattle trade yesterday at steady to $.50 higher when compared to Wednesday. The majors stepped into the market yesterday paying $83.50/$1.35 on cattle in Nebraska and Kansas. It looks as though we sold about 8,000 head of cattle in Kansas and 12,000 head of cattle in Nebraska. There were some cattle that sold in Colorado for $83.50 and further cleanup trade in western Iowa at $1.36-$1.37. Texas feedlot managers did not sell any cattle yesterday as the board looked like it had some support and there showlist numbers are manageable. We should see Texas feedlots let loose of cattle today at no worse than steady money, with a pretty good chance of $1 higher. Going home for the weekend slaughter cows are under pressure, however there still remains good support in the cash feeder cattle market. Most feeder cattle sales continue to report steady to higher transactions on lightweight cattle, however there was a softer undertone beginning to develop on the 7-8 weight cattle.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 482,000 head, which would be 4,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.85 higher to settle at $150.75 and the select cutout closing $.81 higher to settle at $143.62. Sales volume was good with 278 loads of beef sold (92.37 loads of choice fab cuts, 101.17 loads of select fab cuts, 30.31 loads of grinds, 54.41 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.13 a gain of $.04.
The beef market was higher again yesterday with the choice cutout closing back above $1.50 for the first time since the beginning of December. Yesterday saw continued price strength in the choice ribeye and PSMO market, as retailers and restaurant buyers secure product ahead of Valentines Day. There was also higher prices being paid on chuck rolls and certain round cuts. Ground beef and boneless markets were higher again yesterday as the retail community aggressively features hamburger product. Foodservice accounts also add to the strength in the ground beef complex. As I mentioned yesterday we could be getting close to seeing some of this near term beef demand being sufficed. Again, I am not saying we are in for a big break in beef prices; however we could start to see some of the recent gains begin to slow the acceleration. Look for the beef market to trend sideways into the first part of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.00, April live cattle settled at $87.30 a gain of $.47, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.00 a loss of $.70, March feeder cattle settled at $94.30 a loss of $.32, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.55 a loss of $.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/14/09 was $96.24 a loss of $.25. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.95 a gain of $.52, April/June settled at $1.60 a gain of $.47, and the June/August settled at -$.67 a loss of $.12. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $.70 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.25 a gain of $.35, and the April/May settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.55.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 31,573 contracts trade in the pit and 18,871 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 4,071 contracts to come in this morning at 205,315. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,035 contracts trade in the pit and 1,047 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 494 contracts to come in this morning at 21,236.
It was another choppy day in the cattle futures market yesterday as the knuckleheads who like to sell fat and feeder cattle futures because the Dow is lower were out in full force on the open, only to end up buying back those positions late in the day once the stock market started to rally. We have talked about how the fundamentals of the cash fed and feeder cattle market are supportive enough to promote higher cash and futures prices, and I think this train of thought is what prevailed by the close of trade yesterday. With that said, we will keep an eye on overhead resistance levels mentioned earlier in the week at $85 in Feb live cattle, $88.50 on April live cattle, and $95 in March feeder cattle to determine price direction for next week. Closing above these price points by the close today would keep the market positive into next week in my opinion. Holding below these resistance levels by the close today would keep risk of lower prices in the cards. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open, which should support a $.20-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Keep in mind the futures market will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a few more cattle trade yesterday at steady to $.50 higher when compared to Wednesday. The majors stepped into the market yesterday paying $83.50/$1.35 on cattle in Nebraska and Kansas. It looks as though we sold about 8,000 head of cattle in Kansas and 12,000 head of cattle in Nebraska. There were some cattle that sold in Colorado for $83.50 and further cleanup trade in western Iowa at $1.36-$1.37. Texas feedlot managers did not sell any cattle yesterday as the board looked like it had some support and there showlist numbers are manageable. We should see Texas feedlots let loose of cattle today at no worse than steady money, with a pretty good chance of $1 higher. Going home for the weekend slaughter cows are under pressure, however there still remains good support in the cash feeder cattle market. Most feeder cattle sales continue to report steady to higher transactions on lightweight cattle, however there was a softer undertone beginning to develop on the 7-8 weight cattle.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 125,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below last week and 5,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 482,000 head, which would be 4,000 head above the same period last week with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $.85 higher to settle at $150.75 and the select cutout closing $.81 higher to settle at $143.62. Sales volume was good with 278 loads of beef sold (92.37 loads of choice fab cuts, 101.17 loads of select fab cuts, 30.31 loads of grinds, 54.41 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.13 a gain of $.04.
The beef market was higher again yesterday with the choice cutout closing back above $1.50 for the first time since the beginning of December. Yesterday saw continued price strength in the choice ribeye and PSMO market, as retailers and restaurant buyers secure product ahead of Valentines Day. There was also higher prices being paid on chuck rolls and certain round cuts. Ground beef and boneless markets were higher again yesterday as the retail community aggressively features hamburger product. Foodservice accounts also add to the strength in the ground beef complex. As I mentioned yesterday we could be getting close to seeing some of this near term beef demand being sufficed. Again, I am not saying we are in for a big break in beef prices; however we could start to see some of the recent gains begin to slow the acceleration. Look for the beef market to trend sideways into the first part of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.35 a gain of $1.00, April live cattle settled at $87.30 a gain of $.47, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 steady on the day. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.00 a loss of $.70, March feeder cattle settled at $94.30 a loss of $.32, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.55 a loss of $.67. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/14/09 was $96.24 a loss of $.25. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$2.95 a gain of $.52, April/June settled at $1.60 a gain of $.47, and the June/August settled at -$.67 a loss of $.12. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $.70 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.25 a gain of $.35, and the April/May settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.55.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 31,573 contracts trade in the pit and 18,871 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 4,071 contracts to come in this morning at 205,315. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,035 contracts trade in the pit and 1,047 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 494 contracts to come in this morning at 21,236.
It was another choppy day in the cattle futures market yesterday as the knuckleheads who like to sell fat and feeder cattle futures because the Dow is lower were out in full force on the open, only to end up buying back those positions late in the day once the stock market started to rally. We have talked about how the fundamentals of the cash fed and feeder cattle market are supportive enough to promote higher cash and futures prices, and I think this train of thought is what prevailed by the close of trade yesterday. With that said, we will keep an eye on overhead resistance levels mentioned earlier in the week at $85 in Feb live cattle, $88.50 on April live cattle, and $95 in March feeder cattle to determine price direction for next week. Closing above these price points by the close today would keep the market positive into next week in my opinion. Holding below these resistance levels by the close today would keep risk of lower prices in the cards. Stock futures are pointing to a higher open, which should support a $.20-$.30 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Keep in mind the futures market will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
January 15, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light test of the northern dressed trade in feedlot cattle yesterday, with one of the smaller Omaha packers paying $1.36-$1.38 dressed on about five thousand head of cattle in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The $1.38 was said to be paid on a package of high grading cattle early in the morning and those bids were pulled back to $1.36 late where the majority of the trade took place. There was also about a thousand head of hedged cattle that reportedly sold in Kansas at $83. The rest of feeding country was quiet with feedlots resisting bids from the major packers of $82 live and $1.30-$1.32 dressed looking to get $1.36-$1.38/$86-$87. The beef market continues to trade at higher money with the choice cutout closing back near $1.50 for the first time since the first of December. However, there is a larger offering of fed cattle for the packer to chose from this week and there are a few packing companies that are a little short bought and as such are cutting production hours to manage margins from the supply side. There was a pretty choppy trade in the futures yesterday, however front month contracts did manage to come back from steep losses early in the session. Still feel that even with all the gyrations in the market that this weeks fed cattle trade should be no worse than steady, and if we were to see some strength in the futures today that there would be a very good possibility of $.50-$1 higher for feedlot cattle by the end of the week. Keep in mind that it was a mostly $84 live trade in the south last week and $1.34-$1.36 dressed in the north.
The salebarn trade of cattle saw mostly lower prices on the fed cattle yesterday. Sioux Falls, SD was calling their weekly fed cattle auction $1-$2 lower yesterday with the choice beef steers bringing $81-$83 and the choice Holsteins bringing $70-$72. Slaughter cows in Sioux Falls were being called $2-$3 lower with the bulk of the cutters and boners bringing $39-$45. Feeder cattle markets are mixed as we head into the end of the week, with some sales reporting higher results and some lower. Torrington, WY had an estimated run of 3,700 head yesterday with that market being called $3 higher on the cattle weighing under 700 lbs and $2 lower on cattle weighing over 700 lbs. The majority of the cattle weighing 6-8 were bringing $95-$100. There remains pretty good demand for feeder cattle to get placed into late spring/early summer fed cattle marketing timeframes and with the recent run of feeder cattle coming to market expected to taper off in the coming weeks, I would expect to see some support in the cash feeder cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 112,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above last week and 10,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 357,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher with the choice cutout closing $.64 higher to settle at $149.90 and the select cutout closing $.88 higher to settle at $142.81. Sales volume was good with 376 loads of beef sold (145.99 loads of choice fab cuts, 123.31 loads of select fab cuts, 18.36 loads of trim, 88.02 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.10 a loss of $.24.
The beef market was higher again yesterday on continued buyer demand for quick ship of middle meat product ahead of Valentines Day. Yesterday saw a solid performance in choice bone-in and boneless ribeyes with values gaining $.10-$.20 along with $.05-$.10 gains in bone-in and boneless strips. There was the usual buying in chuck and rounds cuts yesterday with clods and boneless rounds attracting the attention of some buyers yesterday. Steady to higher was the call for chuck rolls and short ribs yesterday. The ground beef market settled down yesterday with steady prices being paid on most coarse ground items. Boneless beef markets were mixed, with lower prices being paid on domestic cow 90’s and imported cow and bull grinding material. The fed cattle 50% trim was higher again yesterday with wtd ave prices now at $.80 a gain of $.15 since the first of the year. We could likely see the beef market cool down a bit as some of this near term buying gets wrapped up. Since last Thursday choice cutout values have gained $6.15 and select cutout values have gained $6.05 on pretty good volume. I don’t know if we will see a big break in the beef market, however to see the market stall out at current values shouldn’t be unexpected. Much will depend on how well packers manage production levels. The USDA and USMEF released November export data for beef and pork yesterday, with beef exports for the month of November running 14% above 2007 at 45,633 MT. Year-to-date Jan-Nov 2008 beef exports were 37% above the same period in 2007 at 582,270 MT. November pork exports were 4% above a year ago at 119,911 MT, with the ytd Jan-Nov total running 54% above the same period in 2007 at 1,463,566 MT. Beef exports for the week of January 2-8. 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,900 MT were mainly for Mexico (2,500 MT), Vietnam (1,800 MT), Canada (1,700 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (2,700 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), and Vietnam (1,200 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.35 a loss of $.72, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a loss of $.75, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 a loss of $.30. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.70 a loss of $.65, March feeder cattle settled at $94.62 a loss of $.27, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.22 a loss of $.22. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/13/09 was $96.49 a loss of $.10. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.47 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $1.12 a loss of $.45, June/August settled at -$.55 a loss of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.07 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.60 a loss of $.05, April/May settled at -$1.20 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 46,387 contracts trade in the pit and 24,009 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 145 contracts to come in this morning at 201,284. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,190 contracts trade in the pit and 727 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 11 contracts to come in this morning at 20,712.
Live and feeder cattle futures had a wild ride yesterday with the market opening lower and trading sharply lower early on profit taking from Tuesday’s rally and weakness in equity and outside commodity markets. Once early selling dried up and word of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices being paid in Nebraska and Iowa hit Chicago, the market staged an impressive rally into the noon hour, only to have some of those gains trimmed going into the close due to the last day of the official “Goldman Roll”. Had it not been for the late roll of Feb longs into deferred month futures, we likely would have closed Feb higher on the day. June forward live cattle and March forward feeder cattle managed to hold onto most of their late session rally going into the close. It looks like the Goldman’s rolled about 8,000 cars late in the day, with Feb open interest going down 8,740 and April OI going up 6,267 and June OI going up 1,948. This morning could see a reprieve of selling pressure in cattle futures as most of the index fund rebalancing should be completed and the official roll period of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is over. We managed to hold some of the weekly support I was looking at yesterday basis $81 in Feb and $85 in April live as well as $92 in March feeders. We still have plenty of overhead resistance to deal with though, as $85 in Feb live and $88.50 in April live will be tough barriers to get through by Friday. March feeders ran right into stiff resistance at $95 on the midday rally yesterday, and this, along with the above mentioned live cattle resistance prices, will need to be taken out on a closing basis in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. There should continue to be some optimism towards the cash fed cattle trade this week and I think we are finding willing spec short covering on recent breaks in the market, which should continue to provide a level of support under live and feeder cattle futures for the balance of the week. Overnight stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly lower open. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We saw a light test of the northern dressed trade in feedlot cattle yesterday, with one of the smaller Omaha packers paying $1.36-$1.38 dressed on about five thousand head of cattle in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The $1.38 was said to be paid on a package of high grading cattle early in the morning and those bids were pulled back to $1.36 late where the majority of the trade took place. There was also about a thousand head of hedged cattle that reportedly sold in Kansas at $83. The rest of feeding country was quiet with feedlots resisting bids from the major packers of $82 live and $1.30-$1.32 dressed looking to get $1.36-$1.38/$86-$87. The beef market continues to trade at higher money with the choice cutout closing back near $1.50 for the first time since the first of December. However, there is a larger offering of fed cattle for the packer to chose from this week and there are a few packing companies that are a little short bought and as such are cutting production hours to manage margins from the supply side. There was a pretty choppy trade in the futures yesterday, however front month contracts did manage to come back from steep losses early in the session. Still feel that even with all the gyrations in the market that this weeks fed cattle trade should be no worse than steady, and if we were to see some strength in the futures today that there would be a very good possibility of $.50-$1 higher for feedlot cattle by the end of the week. Keep in mind that it was a mostly $84 live trade in the south last week and $1.34-$1.36 dressed in the north.
The salebarn trade of cattle saw mostly lower prices on the fed cattle yesterday. Sioux Falls, SD was calling their weekly fed cattle auction $1-$2 lower yesterday with the choice beef steers bringing $81-$83 and the choice Holsteins bringing $70-$72. Slaughter cows in Sioux Falls were being called $2-$3 lower with the bulk of the cutters and boners bringing $39-$45. Feeder cattle markets are mixed as we head into the end of the week, with some sales reporting higher results and some lower. Torrington, WY had an estimated run of 3,700 head yesterday with that market being called $3 higher on the cattle weighing under 700 lbs and $2 lower on cattle weighing over 700 lbs. The majority of the cattle weighing 6-8 were bringing $95-$100. There remains pretty good demand for feeder cattle to get placed into late spring/early summer fed cattle marketing timeframes and with the recent run of feeder cattle coming to market expected to taper off in the coming weeks, I would expect to see some support in the cash feeder cattle market.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 112,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above last week and 10,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 357,000 head, which would be 5,000 head above the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher with the choice cutout closing $.64 higher to settle at $149.90 and the select cutout closing $.88 higher to settle at $142.81. Sales volume was good with 376 loads of beef sold (145.99 loads of choice fab cuts, 123.31 loads of select fab cuts, 18.36 loads of trim, 88.02 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.10 a loss of $.24.
The beef market was higher again yesterday on continued buyer demand for quick ship of middle meat product ahead of Valentines Day. Yesterday saw a solid performance in choice bone-in and boneless ribeyes with values gaining $.10-$.20 along with $.05-$.10 gains in bone-in and boneless strips. There was the usual buying in chuck and rounds cuts yesterday with clods and boneless rounds attracting the attention of some buyers yesterday. Steady to higher was the call for chuck rolls and short ribs yesterday. The ground beef market settled down yesterday with steady prices being paid on most coarse ground items. Boneless beef markets were mixed, with lower prices being paid on domestic cow 90’s and imported cow and bull grinding material. The fed cattle 50% trim was higher again yesterday with wtd ave prices now at $.80 a gain of $.15 since the first of the year. We could likely see the beef market cool down a bit as some of this near term buying gets wrapped up. Since last Thursday choice cutout values have gained $6.15 and select cutout values have gained $6.05 on pretty good volume. I don’t know if we will see a big break in the beef market, however to see the market stall out at current values shouldn’t be unexpected. Much will depend on how well packers manage production levels. The USDA and USMEF released November export data for beef and pork yesterday, with beef exports for the month of November running 14% above 2007 at 45,633 MT. Year-to-date Jan-Nov 2008 beef exports were 37% above the same period in 2007 at 582,270 MT. November pork exports were 4% above a year ago at 119,911 MT, with the ytd Jan-Nov total running 54% above the same period in 2007 at 1,463,566 MT. Beef exports for the week of January 2-8. 2009 are as follows:
Beef: Net sales of 7,900 MT were mainly for Mexico (2,500 MT), Vietnam (1,800 MT), Canada (1,700 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT). Exports of 7,400 MT were mainly to Mexico (2,700 MT), South Korea (1,200 MT), and Vietnam (1,200 MT).
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.35 a loss of $.72, April live cattle settled at $86.82 a loss of $.75, and the June live cattle settled at $85.70 a loss of $.30. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.70 a loss of $.65, March feeder cattle settled at $94.62 a loss of $.27, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.22 a loss of $.22. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/13/09 was $96.49 a loss of $.10. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.47 a gain of $.02, April/June settled at $1.12 a loss of $.45, June/August settled at -$.55 a loss of $.07. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.07 a loss of $.37, March/April settled at -$1.60 a loss of $.05, April/May settled at -$1.20 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 46,387 contracts trade in the pit and 24,009 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest gained 145 contracts to come in this morning at 201,284. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,190 contracts trade in the pit and 727 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 11 contracts to come in this morning at 20,712.
Live and feeder cattle futures had a wild ride yesterday with the market opening lower and trading sharply lower early on profit taking from Tuesday’s rally and weakness in equity and outside commodity markets. Once early selling dried up and word of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices being paid in Nebraska and Iowa hit Chicago, the market staged an impressive rally into the noon hour, only to have some of those gains trimmed going into the close due to the last day of the official “Goldman Roll”. Had it not been for the late roll of Feb longs into deferred month futures, we likely would have closed Feb higher on the day. June forward live cattle and March forward feeder cattle managed to hold onto most of their late session rally going into the close. It looks like the Goldman’s rolled about 8,000 cars late in the day, with Feb open interest going down 8,740 and April OI going up 6,267 and June OI going up 1,948. This morning could see a reprieve of selling pressure in cattle futures as most of the index fund rebalancing should be completed and the official roll period of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is over. We managed to hold some of the weekly support I was looking at yesterday basis $81 in Feb and $85 in April live as well as $92 in March feeders. We still have plenty of overhead resistance to deal with though, as $85 in Feb live and $88.50 in April live will be tough barriers to get through by Friday. March feeders ran right into stiff resistance at $95 on the midday rally yesterday, and this, along with the above mentioned live cattle resistance prices, will need to be taken out on a closing basis in order to negate some of the recent bearishness. There should continue to be some optimism towards the cash fed cattle trade this week and I think we are finding willing spec short covering on recent breaks in the market, which should continue to provide a level of support under live and feeder cattle futures for the balance of the week. Overnight stock futures are pointing to a steady to slightly lower open. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
January 14, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlot offering prices remaining at $87-$88 live and $1.38 dressed. Higher settlements on the futures board and in the beef market along with winter weather in the northern feeding sections of the country should continue to support ideas of a higher cash trade by the end of the week. Beef demand and movement hasn’t been too bad this week and it is said that a few packers could be getting a little short bought on inventory. Showlists are a little larger in most feeding regions again this week, which along with Jan contract cattle being available could give packers a little leverage in this weeks price negotiations. I will still call for a mostly steady to $.50-$1 higher cash fed cattle trade by the end of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Monday’s slaughter was revised down to 119,000 head, which now puts the week-to-date kill at 245,000 head, even with the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $1.66 higher to settle at $149.26 and the select cutout closing $2.47 higher to settle at $141.93. Sales volume was good with 272 loads of beef sold (118.68 loads of choice fab cuts, 79.62 loads of select fab cuts, 33.07 loads of trim, 40.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.33 a loss of 4.81.
The beef market continued to trend higher yesterday on renewed interest in middle meats from the retail and wholesale sectors of the market. There continues to be very good demand for ground beef and end meats and this is helping packers to advance cutout values. Continue to look for a mostly steady to higher market for the balance of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.07 a gain of $1.17, April live cattle settled at $87.57 a gain of $1.07, and the June live cattle settled at $86.00 a gain of $.55. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $96.35 a gain of $1.15, March feeder cattle settled at $94.90 a gain of $1.57, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.45 a gain of $1.37. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/12/09 was $96.59 a gain of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.50 a gain of $.10, April/June settled at $1.57 a gain of $.52, and the June/August settled at -$.47 a gain of $.25. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.45 a loss of $.42, March/April settled at -$1.55 a gain of $.20, and the April/May settled at -$1.37 a gain of $.05.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 34,921 contracts trade in the pit and 21,811 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest de3clined 2,794 contracts to come in this morning at 201,142. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,506 contracts trade in the pit and 745 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 183 contracts to come in this morning at 20,710.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on ideas the cash market would be no worse than steady this week. There was some short covering from last weeks sell off and continued unwinding of bear spreads linked to lower corn and winter weather hitting cattle feeding country. This morning the market looks like it is going to open lower on weakness in the stock market. We should find some support under the market on a lower open however as fundamentals of the fat cattle market remain friendly enough to support a higher cash trade for this week. I will continue to look for weekly support in Feb live cattle at $81 and April live cattle at $85 to hold. March feeders continue to look positive to me above $92. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash fed cattle market was untested yesterday with no real packer bids evident and feedlot offering prices remaining at $87-$88 live and $1.38 dressed. Higher settlements on the futures board and in the beef market along with winter weather in the northern feeding sections of the country should continue to support ideas of a higher cash trade by the end of the week. Beef demand and movement hasn’t been too bad this week and it is said that a few packers could be getting a little short bought on inventory. Showlists are a little larger in most feeding regions again this week, which along with Jan contract cattle being available could give packers a little leverage in this weeks price negotiations. I will still call for a mostly steady to $.50-$1 higher cash fed cattle trade by the end of the week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be even with a week ago and 1,000 head below the same day a year ago. Monday’s slaughter was revised down to 119,000 head, which now puts the week-to-date kill at 245,000 head, even with the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $1.66 higher to settle at $149.26 and the select cutout closing $2.47 higher to settle at $141.93. Sales volume was good with 272 loads of beef sold (118.68 loads of choice fab cuts, 79.62 loads of select fab cuts, 33.07 loads of trim, 40.85 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.33 a loss of 4.81.
The beef market continued to trend higher yesterday on renewed interest in middle meats from the retail and wholesale sectors of the market. There continues to be very good demand for ground beef and end meats and this is helping packers to advance cutout values. Continue to look for a mostly steady to higher market for the balance of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $84.07 a gain of $1.17, April live cattle settled at $87.57 a gain of $1.07, and the June live cattle settled at $86.00 a gain of $.55. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $96.35 a gain of $1.15, March feeder cattle settled at $94.90 a gain of $1.57, and the April feeder cattle settled at $96.45 a gain of $1.37. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/12/09 was $96.59 a gain of $.11. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.50 a gain of $.10, April/June settled at $1.57 a gain of $.52, and the June/August settled at -$.47 a gain of $.25. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.45 a loss of $.42, March/April settled at -$1.55 a gain of $.20, and the April/May settled at -$1.37 a gain of $.05.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 34,921 contracts trade in the pit and 21,811 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest de3clined 2,794 contracts to come in this morning at 201,142. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,506 contracts trade in the pit and 745 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 183 contracts to come in this morning at 20,710.
Live and feeder cattle futures settled higher yesterday on ideas the cash market would be no worse than steady this week. There was some short covering from last weeks sell off and continued unwinding of bear spreads linked to lower corn and winter weather hitting cattle feeding country. This morning the market looks like it is going to open lower on weakness in the stock market. We should find some support under the market on a lower open however as fundamentals of the fat cattle market remain friendly enough to support a higher cash trade for this week. I will continue to look for weekly support in Feb live cattle at $81 and April live cattle at $85 to hold. March feeders continue to look positive to me above $92. Look for a $.25-$.50 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
January 13, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade was untested yesterday with showlist assembly and distribution the main feature of the day. Packers were not bidding on any cattle so early in the week, with feedlots pricing a mostly larger offering at $87-$88 live and $1.36-$1.38 dressed. The cash feedlot trade likely won’t be tested until late in the week as packers work off of last weeks buy and Jan contract and formula cattle. The beef market acts pretty good for the first part of the week and there seems to be some demand from the wholesale and retail sectors of the equation. The weather is going to get tough in the northern plains cattle feeding regions by midweek and this along with a futures board that so far seems to found a little stability will have me calling for a mostly steady to $.50 higher market. Cattle selling in the salebarns yesterday were bringing lower money on the fat cattle as that market adjusts to last weeks lower feedlot sales. Slaughter cows were mostly steady to instances of $1 lower. Feeder cattle markets were a little softer reflecting the lower futures and cash markets from last week. Oklahoma City was calling their market steady to $1 lower by the end of the day yesterday and this was the case at many sales across the country. Joplin, MO had a big run of 10,000 head yesterday with that market called mostly steady. Look for feeder cattle to remain mostly steady to $1 lower/$1 higher depending on what sale you are at.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above last week and 7,000 head below the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.12 higher to settle at $147.60 and the select cutout closing $1.71 higher to settle at $139.46. Sales volume was typical for a Monday at 261 loads of beef sold (110.70 loads of choice fab cuts, 52.46 loads of select fab cuts, 30.99 loads of trim, and 67.32 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $8.14 a gain of $.41.
The beef market found good buyer demand from the wholesale market yesterday. Of interest was buying in choice, select, and no-roll ribeyes, short loins, and PSMO’s to the tune of $.10-$.20, as guys get product into position for upcoming Valentine Day features. There was the usual buying in the end meats from retail, which kept steady to higher prices in chuck and round items. There was another strong day in chuck roll and short rib pricing with gains of $.05-$.10 noted. Ground beef markets were once again higher on good demand and movement as this is the shining star for the retailer right now. Boneless beef markets were higher yesterday, especially fed cattle 50’s with product said to be falling short of demand right now. Continue to look for a higher trending beef market into the end of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.90 a loss of $.20, April live cattle settled at $86.50 a loss of $.32, and the June live cattle settled at $85.45 a loss of $.25. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.20 a gain of $1.10, March feeder cattle settled at $93.32 a gain of $.65, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.07 a gain of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/9/09 was $96.48 a loss of $.04. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.60 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $1.05 a loss of $.07, and June/August settled at -$.72 a gain of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.87 a gain of $.45, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.42, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 38,582 contracts trade in the pit and 15,486 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 4,407 to come in this morning at 203,923. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,830 contracts trade in the pit and 580 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 299 contracts to come in this morning at 20,886.
Live cattle futures were under a degree of pressure on continued “Goldman Rolling” and index fund liquidation. Yesterday was the 3rd day of the Goldman Roll and we saw some stuff rolled into April; however there was some outright liquidation as open interest went down 4,407 yesterday. Another big feature of the day was unwinding bear spreads that were put on the last couple of weeks when corn was rallying. August open interest alone went down 1,000 cars because of this. Weekly support in live cattle futures should continue to be found at $81 in Feb and $85 in April. I think we would need to see futures get back above $85 in Feb and $88.50 in April to negate some of last weeks bearishness. Weekly feeder support comes into play at $90.50 on the March, with the market needing to get back above $94 to keep rally attempts alive. We don’t have as much outside commodity selling to contend with this morning, so I will call for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
The cash feedlot trade was untested yesterday with showlist assembly and distribution the main feature of the day. Packers were not bidding on any cattle so early in the week, with feedlots pricing a mostly larger offering at $87-$88 live and $1.36-$1.38 dressed. The cash feedlot trade likely won’t be tested until late in the week as packers work off of last weeks buy and Jan contract and formula cattle. The beef market acts pretty good for the first part of the week and there seems to be some demand from the wholesale and retail sectors of the equation. The weather is going to get tough in the northern plains cattle feeding regions by midweek and this along with a futures board that so far seems to found a little stability will have me calling for a mostly steady to $.50 higher market. Cattle selling in the salebarns yesterday were bringing lower money on the fat cattle as that market adjusts to last weeks lower feedlot sales. Slaughter cows were mostly steady to instances of $1 lower. Feeder cattle markets were a little softer reflecting the lower futures and cash markets from last week. Oklahoma City was calling their market steady to $1 lower by the end of the day yesterday and this was the case at many sales across the country. Joplin, MO had a big run of 10,000 head yesterday with that market called mostly steady. Look for feeder cattle to remain mostly steady to $1 lower/$1 higher depending on what sale you are at.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterday’s cattle kill was estimated at 122,000 head, which would be 3,000 head above last week and 7,000 head below the same day a year ago. The industry will be looking for a 610,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was higher yesterday with the choice cutout closing $2.12 higher to settle at $147.60 and the select cutout closing $1.71 higher to settle at $139.46. Sales volume was typical for a Monday at 261 loads of beef sold (110.70 loads of choice fab cuts, 52.46 loads of select fab cuts, 30.99 loads of trim, and 67.32 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $8.14 a gain of $.41.
The beef market found good buyer demand from the wholesale market yesterday. Of interest was buying in choice, select, and no-roll ribeyes, short loins, and PSMO’s to the tune of $.10-$.20, as guys get product into position for upcoming Valentine Day features. There was the usual buying in the end meats from retail, which kept steady to higher prices in chuck and round items. There was another strong day in chuck roll and short rib pricing with gains of $.05-$.10 noted. Ground beef markets were once again higher on good demand and movement as this is the shining star for the retailer right now. Boneless beef markets were higher yesterday, especially fed cattle 50’s with product said to be falling short of demand right now. Continue to look for a higher trending beef market into the end of the week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $82.90 a loss of $.20, April live cattle settled at $86.50 a loss of $.32, and the June live cattle settled at $85.45 a loss of $.25. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $95.20 a gain of $1.10, March feeder cattle settled at $93.32 a gain of $.65, and the April feeder cattle settled at $95.07 a gain of $1.07. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/9/09 was $96.48 a loss of $.04. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.60 a gain of $.12, April/June settled at $1.05 a loss of $.07, and June/August settled at -$.72 a gain of $.27. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.87 a gain of $.45, March/April settled at -$1.75 a loss of $.42, and April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.17.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 38,582 contracts trade in the pit and 15,486 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 4,407 to come in this morning at 203,923. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,830 contracts trade in the pit and 580 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 299 contracts to come in this morning at 20,886.
Live cattle futures were under a degree of pressure on continued “Goldman Rolling” and index fund liquidation. Yesterday was the 3rd day of the Goldman Roll and we saw some stuff rolled into April; however there was some outright liquidation as open interest went down 4,407 yesterday. Another big feature of the day was unwinding bear spreads that were put on the last couple of weeks when corn was rallying. August open interest alone went down 1,000 cars because of this. Weekly support in live cattle futures should continue to be found at $81 in Feb and $85 in April. I think we would need to see futures get back above $85 in Feb and $88.50 in April to negate some of last weeks bearishness. Weekly feeder support comes into play at $90.50 on the March, with the market needing to get back above $94 to keep rally attempts alive. We don’t have as much outside commodity selling to contend with this morning, so I will call for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle futures. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, January 12, 2009
January 12, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $3-$5 lower with the bulk of business being done on Thursday. Texas feedlots reported selling 31,614 head of fed cattle for $84, Kansas yards sold 25,603 head of fed cattle for $84 live and $131.50 dressed, Nebraska feedlots sold 48,583 head of fed cattle for $83 live and $1.33-$1.35 dressed, Colorado feedlots sold 6,324 head of fed cattle for $83 live and $1.33 dressed, and Iowa feedlots sold 18,399 head of fed cattle for $83 live and $1.33-$1.35 dressed. Friday saw some light cleanup trade of 2,500-5,000 head apiece in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Colorado at prices steady with Thursday. Lower futures prices linked to fund liquidation and spec/technical selling forced cattle feeders to accept lower money for their live inventory last week. Compared to a couple weeks ago, feeder cattle markets were $4-$10 higher as we saw our first true test of the market since the holiday’s. Cattle feeders came back from the holiday break and actively pursued cattle to fill empty pens and fill what many perceive to be a marketing hole of fed cattle by late April/May. Last weeks slaughter cow market was mixed, $1 higher to $1 lower depending on what part of the country you were in. Looking into this week, we will have to see if the futures board can stabilize to keep the fed cattle market from moving any lower. Packers say they came out of last week with beef inventories that are very manageable after offering deep discounts on items that wouldn’t move and eventually getting said items sold. There will likely be more cattle offered for sale again this week in the north, however the weather in that part of the country isn’t going to be very good. The fed cattle market will likely trade on the defensive early with the possibility of prices firming late. The big feeding companies were very aggressive in feeder cattle procurement last week and I would expect to see more of the same this week. Slaughter cows should find some support this week, as winter weather in the northern plains will hamper livestock movement.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Last weeks cattle slaughter was estimated at 601,000 head, which included a Friday kill of 114,000 head and a Saturday kill of 9,000 head. The weekly slaughter was 90,000 head above the previous week and 33,000 head below the same week a year ago and produced an estimated 470-mil lbs of beef. Year-to-date beef production is running 27% below last year at 597 mil lbs with ytd cattle slaughter running 28% below last year at 764,000 head. From Friday to Thursday of last week choice boxed beef gained $.56 to settle at $143.75 and select boxed beef gained $1.26 to settle at $136.76 on increased movement of 1,181 loads of fabricated cuts sold. Friday saw further gains in the beef market with the choice cutout closing $1.73 higher to settle at $145.48 and the select cutout closing $.99 higher to settle at $137.75. Sales volume on Friday was light with 223 loads of beef sold (77.34 loads of choice fab cuts, 74.75 loads of select fab cuts, 33.43 loads of trim, 37.79 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.73 a gain of $.74 for the day and $.04 for the week.
Packers came into last week with push lists consisting of ribeyes, short loins, and peeled tenderloins that they needed to move. By Wednesday they had offered deep price reductions on said items and by Friday had most of the burdensome inventory cleared. End meats moved very well all of last week on good demand from retail and wholesale buyers along with grinders. Ground beef demand is very strong right now, and as a result we saw higher prices and very good movement all last week in the coarse ground market, so much so that grinders were buying two-piece and boneless chucks to put into the grind to suffice demand. The increased demand from the grinding sector also supported 90% cow beef and 50% fed cattle trim values. There was also said to be some light export demand supporting chuck roll and short rib values. I would look for a mostly steady beef market early this week as manageable inventories of beef to sell and reduced production schedules last week has packers optimistic towards the beef market coming into this week. There is talk that there will be active steak features going into Valentines Day, which along with sharply lower price levels on ribeyes, strip loins, and short loins the last several weeks, was thought to be price supportive.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
For the week, February live cattle lost $4.00 to settle at $83.10, April live cattle lost $3.93 to settle at $86.82, and the June live cattle lost $2.30 to settle at $85.70. In the feeder cattle pit for the week, January feeder cattle lost $1.50 to settle at $94.10, March feeder cattle lost $2.85 to settle at $92.67, and the April feeder cattle lost $2.15 to settle at $94.00. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/8/09 was $96.52 a gain of $.09 for the day and $3.60 for the week. For the week in live cattle spreads: Feb/April lost $.07 to settle at -$3.72, April/June lost $1.63 to settle at $1.12, and June/August lost $1.15 to settle at -$1.00. For the week in feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March gained $1.35 to settle at $1.42, March/April lost $.67 to settle at -$1.32, and April/May gained $.10 to settle at -$1.60.
Fridays live cattle volume saw 37,939 contracts trade in the pit and 16,227 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 1,695 contracts to come in this morning at 208,318. Friday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,075 contracts trade in the pit and 567 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 1 contract to come in this morning at 20,591. For the week live cattle open interest declined 7,232 and feeder cattle open interest declined 31.
The latest commitment of traders report for business through last Tuesday showed in live cattle that small funds were net short 10,482 a decline of 4,466 shorts. Commercial traders were net short 68,555 contracts of live cattle a gain of 7,211 shorts. Index fund traders were net long 100,332 contracts of live cattle a gain of 1,705 contracts. Small spec traders were net short 21,125 contracts of live cattle a decline of 1,039 contracts. In the feeder cattle, small funds were net short 2,655 a decline of 199 shorts. Commercial traders were net long 421 contracts of feeder cattle a decline of 471 shorts. Index fund traders were net long 6,467 contracts of feeder cattle a decline of 324 longs. Small spec traders were net short 4,233 contracts of feeder cattle a decline of 596 shorts.
Last weeks futures market was plagued by long profit taking after the recent rally in prices, technical selling, and index fund liquidation. This forced cash fed cattle prices lower on the week and we will need to see some stability in the futures by midweek this week in order to stave off further losses in the cash market. The USDA released final production and carryout numbers for grains this morning and the numbers look pretty bearish for corn, beans, and wheat as quarterly grain stocks and 08/09 carryout projections were all well above pre-report estimates. On the meat numbers, USDA lowered 08 beef production 30 mil lbs and left 09 production numbers alone at 26.642 bil lbs. The USDA also raised 08 beef imports 30 mil lbs and raised 09 imports 85 mil lbs on strength in the U.S. dollar. The USDA raised 08 exports 15 mil lbs to 1.875 bil and left 09 exports alone at 1.920 bil. 2009 Pork production was lowered 90 mil lbs and 09 poultry production was lowered 198 mil lbs reflecting recent liquidation in those markets. The USDA numbers paint some optimism towards meat markets for 2009, so long as we can see some recovery in U.S. and world economies. This morning, outside commodity markets are all lower and they are calling corn and wheat down $.10-$.15 and beans down $.20-$.25 on the open. This likely won’t bode well for live and feeder cattle futures on the open either and I would look for cattle to be lower on the open and most of the day today in sympathy with other commodity markets. First weekly support for Feb live cattle will be found at $81, April live at $85, and March feeders at $90.50. Feeder cattle should find the most support this week as there remains good support for cash feeders in the country. Live cattle futures will likely be under pressure early this week as the market prices a lower fed cattle trade for this week and waits to see how early week beef demand plays out. Look for a $.10-$.30 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
We left last week with a fed cattle market that trades mostly $3-$5 lower with the bulk of business being done on Thursday. Texas feedlots reported selling 31,614 head of fed cattle for $84, Kansas yards sold 25,603 head of fed cattle for $84 live and $131.50 dressed, Nebraska feedlots sold 48,583 head of fed cattle for $83 live and $1.33-$1.35 dressed, Colorado feedlots sold 6,324 head of fed cattle for $83 live and $1.33 dressed, and Iowa feedlots sold 18,399 head of fed cattle for $83 live and $1.33-$1.35 dressed. Friday saw some light cleanup trade of 2,500-5,000 head apiece in Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Colorado at prices steady with Thursday. Lower futures prices linked to fund liquidation and spec/technical selling forced cattle feeders to accept lower money for their live inventory last week. Compared to a couple weeks ago, feeder cattle markets were $4-$10 higher as we saw our first true test of the market since the holiday’s. Cattle feeders came back from the holiday break and actively pursued cattle to fill empty pens and fill what many perceive to be a marketing hole of fed cattle by late April/May. Last weeks slaughter cow market was mixed, $1 higher to $1 lower depending on what part of the country you were in. Looking into this week, we will have to see if the futures board can stabilize to keep the fed cattle market from moving any lower. Packers say they came out of last week with beef inventories that are very manageable after offering deep discounts on items that wouldn’t move and eventually getting said items sold. There will likely be more cattle offered for sale again this week in the north, however the weather in that part of the country isn’t going to be very good. The fed cattle market will likely trade on the defensive early with the possibility of prices firming late. The big feeding companies were very aggressive in feeder cattle procurement last week and I would expect to see more of the same this week. Slaughter cows should find some support this week, as winter weather in the northern plains will hamper livestock movement.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Last weeks cattle slaughter was estimated at 601,000 head, which included a Friday kill of 114,000 head and a Saturday kill of 9,000 head. The weekly slaughter was 90,000 head above the previous week and 33,000 head below the same week a year ago and produced an estimated 470-mil lbs of beef. Year-to-date beef production is running 27% below last year at 597 mil lbs with ytd cattle slaughter running 28% below last year at 764,000 head. From Friday to Thursday of last week choice boxed beef gained $.56 to settle at $143.75 and select boxed beef gained $1.26 to settle at $136.76 on increased movement of 1,181 loads of fabricated cuts sold. Friday saw further gains in the beef market with the choice cutout closing $1.73 higher to settle at $145.48 and the select cutout closing $.99 higher to settle at $137.75. Sales volume on Friday was light with 223 loads of beef sold (77.34 loads of choice fab cuts, 74.75 loads of select fab cuts, 33.43 loads of trim, 37.79 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $7.73 a gain of $.74 for the day and $.04 for the week.
Packers came into last week with push lists consisting of ribeyes, short loins, and peeled tenderloins that they needed to move. By Wednesday they had offered deep price reductions on said items and by Friday had most of the burdensome inventory cleared. End meats moved very well all of last week on good demand from retail and wholesale buyers along with grinders. Ground beef demand is very strong right now, and as a result we saw higher prices and very good movement all last week in the coarse ground market, so much so that grinders were buying two-piece and boneless chucks to put into the grind to suffice demand. The increased demand from the grinding sector also supported 90% cow beef and 50% fed cattle trim values. There was also said to be some light export demand supporting chuck roll and short rib values. I would look for a mostly steady beef market early this week as manageable inventories of beef to sell and reduced production schedules last week has packers optimistic towards the beef market coming into this week. There is talk that there will be active steak features going into Valentines Day, which along with sharply lower price levels on ribeyes, strip loins, and short loins the last several weeks, was thought to be price supportive.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
For the week, February live cattle lost $4.00 to settle at $83.10, April live cattle lost $3.93 to settle at $86.82, and the June live cattle lost $2.30 to settle at $85.70. In the feeder cattle pit for the week, January feeder cattle lost $1.50 to settle at $94.10, March feeder cattle lost $2.85 to settle at $92.67, and the April feeder cattle lost $2.15 to settle at $94.00. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/8/09 was $96.52 a gain of $.09 for the day and $3.60 for the week. For the week in live cattle spreads: Feb/April lost $.07 to settle at -$3.72, April/June lost $1.63 to settle at $1.12, and June/August lost $1.15 to settle at -$1.00. For the week in feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March gained $1.35 to settle at $1.42, March/April lost $.67 to settle at -$1.32, and April/May gained $.10 to settle at -$1.60.
Fridays live cattle volume saw 37,939 contracts trade in the pit and 16,227 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 1,695 contracts to come in this morning at 208,318. Friday’s feeder cattle volume saw 2,075 contracts trade in the pit and 567 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest declined 1 contract to come in this morning at 20,591. For the week live cattle open interest declined 7,232 and feeder cattle open interest declined 31.
The latest commitment of traders report for business through last Tuesday showed in live cattle that small funds were net short 10,482 a decline of 4,466 shorts. Commercial traders were net short 68,555 contracts of live cattle a gain of 7,211 shorts. Index fund traders were net long 100,332 contracts of live cattle a gain of 1,705 contracts. Small spec traders were net short 21,125 contracts of live cattle a decline of 1,039 contracts. In the feeder cattle, small funds were net short 2,655 a decline of 199 shorts. Commercial traders were net long 421 contracts of feeder cattle a decline of 471 shorts. Index fund traders were net long 6,467 contracts of feeder cattle a decline of 324 longs. Small spec traders were net short 4,233 contracts of feeder cattle a decline of 596 shorts.
Last weeks futures market was plagued by long profit taking after the recent rally in prices, technical selling, and index fund liquidation. This forced cash fed cattle prices lower on the week and we will need to see some stability in the futures by midweek this week in order to stave off further losses in the cash market. The USDA released final production and carryout numbers for grains this morning and the numbers look pretty bearish for corn, beans, and wheat as quarterly grain stocks and 08/09 carryout projections were all well above pre-report estimates. On the meat numbers, USDA lowered 08 beef production 30 mil lbs and left 09 production numbers alone at 26.642 bil lbs. The USDA also raised 08 beef imports 30 mil lbs and raised 09 imports 85 mil lbs on strength in the U.S. dollar. The USDA raised 08 exports 15 mil lbs to 1.875 bil and left 09 exports alone at 1.920 bil. 2009 Pork production was lowered 90 mil lbs and 09 poultry production was lowered 198 mil lbs reflecting recent liquidation in those markets. The USDA numbers paint some optimism towards meat markets for 2009, so long as we can see some recovery in U.S. and world economies. This morning, outside commodity markets are all lower and they are calling corn and wheat down $.10-$.15 and beans down $.20-$.25 on the open. This likely won’t bode well for live and feeder cattle futures on the open either and I would look for cattle to be lower on the open and most of the day today in sympathy with other commodity markets. First weekly support for Feb live cattle will be found at $81, April live at $85, and March feeders at $90.50. Feeder cattle should find the most support this week as there remains good support for cash feeders in the country. Live cattle futures will likely be under pressure early this week as the market prices a lower fed cattle trade for this week and waits to see how early week beef demand plays out. Look for a $.10-$.30 lower open to live and feeder cattle futures this morning. Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, January 9, 2009
January 9, 2009
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market turned fairly active with live sales running $2-$3 lower and dressed sales running mostly $4 lower when compared to the previous week. Cattle sold in Texas for mostly $84-$85 on about 4,000 head, Kansas feedlots sold approximately 12,000 head for $84 live, Nebraska sold approximately 20,000 head for $1.34-$1.35, Colorado feedlots sold 1,200 head for $83-$83.50 live, and Iowa feedlots sold 3,000 head of fed cattle for $1.32-$1.36 dressed. Numbers of cattle sold look to be moderate and there will certainly be some cleanup trade today, likely steady with yesterdays market depending on what the board does. Believe the drop in this weeks cash fed cattle market was a direct result of the lower futures board, and we should begin to see some of that selling in the futures subside in the next day or two as we are getting some of the open interest that has been talked about out of the market. We have brought the cash market back into $83-$84 support and would expect the market to hold together here give or take a dollar and trade sideways to higher from here. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cows carry a mixed tone, some higher and some lower depending on what part of the country you are in. Feeder cattle sales remain strong, with many sales yesterday like Pratt, KS reporting $2-$4 higher across the board on all classes of feeders with very good buyer demand. This is especially true on 7-8 weight cattle that will finish by late spring and I would expect this trend to continue into next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be 126,000 head above a week ago and 3,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 478,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was $.26 higher on the choice cutout to settle at $143.75 and $.52 higher to settle at $136.76 on the select cutout. Sales volume was good with 420 loads of beef sold (127.12 loads of choice fab cuts, 169.50 loads of select fab cuts, 40.93 loads of trim, 82.14 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $6.99 a loss of $.26.
The beef market was mostly steady to higher yesterday, with the exception of choice/select rib roasts. The rest of the complex was holding its own with price strength showing up once again in two-piece chucks, chuck rolls, knuckles, and outside rounds. There was another round of higher price transactions in the ground beef market on good movement. Boneless beef markets were higher as well, again most of that strength showing up in the fed cattle 50’s. Packers did a good job of clearing backlogged inventory this week and head into the weekend with manageable inventory levels. For this reason I will continue to look for a mostly steady to higher beef market into the first part of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.15 a loss of $2.62, April live cattle settled at $86.95 a loss of $1.97, and the June live cattle settled at $85.37 a loss of $1.07. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $1.00, March feeder cattle settled at $92.25 a loss of $1.02, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $.77. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/7/09 was $96.43 a gain of $.31. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.80 a loss of $.65, April/June settled at $1.57 a loss of $.90, and June/August settled at -$.72 a loss of $.22. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.25 a gain of $.02, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.25, April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.40.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 43,662 contracts trade in the pit and 20,831 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 7,474 contracts to come in this morning at 210,095. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,257 contracts trade in the pit and 1,187 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 524 contracts to come in this morning at 20,632.
Live and feeder cattle futures suffered another round of heavy selling yesterday linked to the beginning of the “Goldman Roll” and index fund liquidation. We have been hearing the last couple of days about how the index fund community needs to rebalance their meat position, and yesterday we saw Feb open interest go down 8,351 contracts with total live cattle open interest going down 7,474. Some of this was rolled, however it would appear that there was some sizeable outright liquidation. Since last Friday Feb live cattle open interest has gone down approximately 17,000 cars. Again, some of this was rolled into deferred month fats; however there has been a portion that was simply outright liquidated. This would lead me to believe that we could be getting close to seeing some of this selling subside. We could see another day or two of live cattle liquidation; however I think we are getting close to wrapping that up and would want to be a buyer on any further weakness. Feeders on the other hand don’t have to break that much more from where they are at, due to the index guys not having to liquidate feeders and we have very good cash strength in the country. For this reason I would look to be a buyer of feeder cattle today, and if they come in and whack the fat cattle at the end of the day again you can buy them cheaper. If not, and the market rallies, you at least have the feeders on to help offset paying up for the fat cattle. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle this morning. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Good Morning from the Chicago Board of Trade,
Cash Cattle Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays cash fed cattle market turned fairly active with live sales running $2-$3 lower and dressed sales running mostly $4 lower when compared to the previous week. Cattle sold in Texas for mostly $84-$85 on about 4,000 head, Kansas feedlots sold approximately 12,000 head for $84 live, Nebraska sold approximately 20,000 head for $1.34-$1.35, Colorado feedlots sold 1,200 head for $83-$83.50 live, and Iowa feedlots sold 3,000 head of fed cattle for $1.32-$1.36 dressed. Numbers of cattle sold look to be moderate and there will certainly be some cleanup trade today, likely steady with yesterdays market depending on what the board does. Believe the drop in this weeks cash fed cattle market was a direct result of the lower futures board, and we should begin to see some of that selling in the futures subside in the next day or two as we are getting some of the open interest that has been talked about out of the market. We have brought the cash market back into $83-$84 support and would expect the market to hold together here give or take a dollar and trade sideways to higher from here. Going home for the weekend, slaughter cows carry a mixed tone, some higher and some lower depending on what part of the country you are in. Feeder cattle sales remain strong, with many sales yesterday like Pratt, KS reporting $2-$4 higher across the board on all classes of feeders with very good buyer demand. This is especially true on 7-8 weight cattle that will finish by late spring and I would expect this trend to continue into next week.
Cash Beef Situation and Outlook:
Yesterdays kill was estimated at 126,000 head, which would be 126,000 head above a week ago and 3,000 head below the same day a year ago. The week-to-date kill now stands at 478,000 head, which would be 1,000 head below the same period a week ago with the industry looking for a 620,000 head production week. The boxed beef market was $.26 higher on the choice cutout to settle at $143.75 and $.52 higher to settle at $136.76 on the select cutout. Sales volume was good with 420 loads of beef sold (127.12 loads of choice fab cuts, 169.50 loads of select fab cuts, 40.93 loads of trim, 82.14 loads of grinds). The choice/select spread settled at $6.99 a loss of $.26.
The beef market was mostly steady to higher yesterday, with the exception of choice/select rib roasts. The rest of the complex was holding its own with price strength showing up once again in two-piece chucks, chuck rolls, knuckles, and outside rounds. There was another round of higher price transactions in the ground beef market on good movement. Boneless beef markets were higher as well, again most of that strength showing up in the fed cattle 50’s. Packers did a good job of clearing backlogged inventory this week and head into the weekend with manageable inventory levels. For this reason I will continue to look for a mostly steady to higher beef market into the first part of next week.
Futures Market Situation and Outlook:
February live cattle settled at $83.15 a loss of $2.62, April live cattle settled at $86.95 a loss of $1.97, and the June live cattle settled at $85.37 a loss of $1.07. In the feeder cattle pit, January feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $1.00, March feeder cattle settled at $92.25 a loss of $1.02, and the April feeder cattle settled at $93.50 a loss of $.77. The reported CME feeder cattle index for 1/7/09 was $96.43 a gain of $.31. Live cattle spreads: Feb/April settled at -$3.80 a loss of $.65, April/June settled at $1.57 a loss of $.90, and June/August settled at -$.72 a loss of $.22. Feeder cattle spreads: Jan/March settled at $1.25 a gain of $.02, March/April settled at -$1.25 a loss of $.25, April/May settled at -$1.42 a gain of $.40.
Yesterdays live cattle volume saw 43,662 contracts trade in the pit and 20,831 contracts trade on Globex. Live cattle open interest declined 7,474 contracts to come in this morning at 210,095. Yesterday’s feeder cattle volume saw 3,257 contracts trade in the pit and 1,187 contracts trade on Globex. Feeder cattle open interest gained 524 contracts to come in this morning at 20,632.
Live and feeder cattle futures suffered another round of heavy selling yesterday linked to the beginning of the “Goldman Roll” and index fund liquidation. We have been hearing the last couple of days about how the index fund community needs to rebalance their meat position, and yesterday we saw Feb open interest go down 8,351 contracts with total live cattle open interest going down 7,474. Some of this was rolled, however it would appear that there was some sizeable outright liquidation. Since last Friday Feb live cattle open interest has gone down approximately 17,000 cars. Again, some of this was rolled into deferred month fats; however there has been a portion that was simply outright liquidated. This would lead me to believe that we could be getting close to seeing some of this selling subside. We could see another day or two of live cattle liquidation; however I think we are getting close to wrapping that up and would want to be a buyer on any further weakness. Feeders on the other hand don’t have to break that much more from where they are at, due to the index guys not having to liquidate feeders and we have very good cash strength in the country. For this reason I would look to be a buyer of feeder cattle today, and if they come in and whack the fat cattle at the end of the day again you can buy them cheaper. If not, and the market rallies, you at least have the feeders on to help offset paying up for the fat cattle. Look for a $.10-$.20 higher open to live and feeder cattle this morning. Have a Good Weekend and Trade Well!!!
Any one wanting a more detailed report on the cattle and beef markets including fundamental, chart and technical analysis, plus spec/hedge recommendations for packers, processors, producers, and meat buyers feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail to set up a free trial.
There is risk in trading futures and options.
Have a Good Day,
Troy Vetterkind
Vetterkind Cattle Brokerage, LLC
Chicago Board of Trade
141 West Jackson Blvd.
Suite 1220A
Chicago, IL 60604
1-888-299-1477 Toll Free
1-312-896-2068 Direct
1-708-224-5985 Mobile
tvetterkind@linngroup.com
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn Group, Inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This material and any view expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn Group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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